Where’s the ceiling ?

[granddaddy55]

21 hours ago, Fman said:

Look at what a new Ford F350 runs these days?  There is one at the local Ford dealer with a sticker price of $97k (lifted and blinged out).  RV's and tow haulers are no different... everyone is jumping on the 4% increase annually.  I have a few good friends who live to the hill, no retirement planning, finance everything, but could care less and just want to have fun in life.  There is also ZERO accountability, whenever this "crash" happens and people can't afford there $150k boats they just turn them in and walk away.  Two years later there credit is back up and they are doing the same thing again.  Guarantee there are people in 2008 who lost there homes, boats, RV's, etc... who are living in big houses again, have all there toys back and are laughing to the bank.

In 2016 Guy I know “walked” from a G 23 loan , actually turned it in voluntarily without even attempting full sale  a short sale with approval. 2018 back in a G23 boat loan for the amount he defaulted on $66000.

originally sold and applied funds of a paid for San 210 in the original Used 2013 G bought for $100000 in 14/15’.  Surrrndered all of that equity plus $40000 paid in equity on original loan 

[granddaddy55]

20 hours ago, AJwakedevil said:

Thanks for the quick economic update. I know I can always count on Y'all. I hate thinking about spending 5 YEARS saving up for a nice boat... I mean im going to be 30!! at the point.. but all this talk really solidifies the notion of outright owning it instead of borrowing for it.

 

I look forward to see whats available in our price range at that time in 5 years.

That plan will KILL in 5 years, the young ripper wakeboarders are going to be the recipient of a lot of very nice and cheap SURF boats.  

Had a discussion at a contest with a ripper who thought including wakesurf  in the riding contest was ruining it.  Politely reminded him of the benefit above coming his way and if it weren’t for those surfers the industry wouldn’t be what it is today 

[granddaddy55]

19 hours ago, Bawshogg said:

I care because I want to. 

Pretty funny when a working class blue collar guy gets called out as a 1%’r... Hillarous actually ! 😂

Truck belongs to the dealer I WORK FOR ... not mine , but I do have the luxury to “use”. .

Boat was mine , but I have also been in the game for 18 years and had a chance grow my nut with the industry growth. So no secret sauce there . Everything I have I have worked for and still am working for .... so when things get so far out reality that it makes ME..... the 1%er  ponder ... I’m just curious what at the 99% have to say. 

 

 

 

Have to admit if that was your truck AND boat you woujd be 1%

[Chrisjjbrown]

1 hour ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

I was not in regards to the slamming TMC and Malibu that was mistakenly directly at wheelman and I was wrong and later owned up to that. Reread the thread. If you are talking about how I think the IG post was arrogant, then yes, I said that in my quote to Baws. So in regards to the fact that I never called him out for slamming TMC and Malibu you are wrong, you know it, I know it, everyone knows it. 

The context of the posts seems like your slamming both,   

 

Surprise, surprise your shots missed the paper.  

[ID AX]

Ive hit my ceiling with this thread.  

[Ronnie]

 Time to stop picking at each other. Call it a draw or this thread will go away.

[Chappy]

On 9/11/2018 at 8:49 PM, Bawshogg said:

I could care less about the fuel... I never factor that in with a purchase like this... it’s just like my RV.... put gas in till I get there , put gas in until I get home . Nothing you can do about that . And I feel like the fuel costs are the least of the worries .

Agreed, cracks me up how people talk about the price of gas.  It is what it is, are you going to stop driving your car? NO!

[SouthsideBoarder]

13 hours ago, wheelman said:

I don’t think we are the ones driving this market. I would say it’s fair to say most of us on this site are the true boating enthusiasts and have worked are way up the boat market into new boats. How many boats have we owned? We did not just walk into the dealership and buy 6 figure + boats for cash or finance the whole thing.  Probably built up a big down payment over the years of boating in different boats paying them down as we go a long. While this has helped drive the market I look around my lake and see new multi million dollar properties going up with brand new boats sitting at the dock which barely ever move. These guys have stupid money where it just doesn’t matter to them and it doesnt matter what it costs. 

I experience that at our lake. A few million dollar places with new 23 LSV boats that honestly have never seen in the water just on the lift. Makes me sad thinking all that money was spent and no one is enjoying it.

[Five Cent Worth]

16 hours ago, Eagleboy99 said:

Really?  When oil was $147/bbl what were prices?  And now at 70?  And exactly how much dino juice is used in a boat??

not sure, but the base raw materials to fiberglass certainly isn't a barrel of crude.  Needless to say, valid point.

[Five Cent Worth]

I love how these threads turn into how long or short a loan (or no loan) for a boat should be.  Everyone values different things and their goals to financial "freedoms" are different.

[kerpluxal]

29 minutes ago, Five Cent Worth said:

not sure, but the base raw materials to fiberglass certainly isn't a barrel of crude.  Needless to say, valid point.

fiberglass itself does not derive from crude.. but the resin does... 

 

11 minutes ago, Five Cent Worth said:

I love how these threads turn into how long or short a loan (or no loan) for a boat should be.  Everyone values different things and their goals to financial "freedoms" are different.

Can't take it with you when your gone.. so might as well enjoy it while you are here  To each their own.. Could argue that a boat payment is better spent of family enjoyment than a psychiatrist bill trying to cope with each other lol

Edited September 13, 2018 by kerpluxal

[minnmarker]

1 hour ago, SouthsideBoarder said:

I experience that at our lake. A few million dollar places with new 23 LSV boats that honestly have never seen in the water just on the lift. Makes me sad thinking all that money was spent and no one is enjoying it.

Same at our lake.  I think some of those people work hard and long hours to afford those boats - seen only from noon Saturday till noon Sunday.  Other times they're on the way to or from - or at - the work place.  And not ruining our water with their wakes.

OR their teenagers are using them irresponsibly....

[Five Cent Worth]

16 minutes ago, kerpluxal said:

 Could argue that a boat payment is better spent of family enjoyment than a psychiatrist bill trying to cope with each other lol

Same in your family too!  

[TallRedRider]

I couldn't take the time to read the entire thread, but noted the reference to wages being stagnant, and how can boat prices keep increasing with that.  There is so much confusing information on the internet about that topic.  I think it is clear that a lot of the reporting on the topic has some political bias.    It happens on both sides, Trump supporters think poverty has vanished, and Dems even try to spin record low unemployment as a bad thing.  

Median household income is at an all time high.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/12/middle-class-income-hit-an-all-time-high-last-year-us-census-says/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b2774b505e52   A person can argue that wages are stagnant, but people are working more hours, but that still ignores the basic fact that your income buys a boat, not your wage.  

And the fact we are having this conversation suggests incomes are up for many, not just the ultra rich.  The boat market is strong throughout, not just at the top.  It is just about as strong for the 15K boat as it is for the 150K boat.  

[Sparky450]

Wages are all but stagnant. My employees wages (hourly) are up about 25%. If I don’t give them the wage someone else will. This across the board in construction. And as Hop said we need more blue collar workers. A good blue collar worker, as in employee, can easily turn a $125k+ in this market if he is willing to give an honest days work.  And typically he has been paid to go to school. No student loans.😃

[nyryan2001]

On 9/13/2018 at 12:50 AM, ahopkinsVTX said:

So wait a second.. The guy who starts a thread about boat prices and how they are so much while going up every year (just like everything else manufactured or grown on this planet) implying that they are too high. Also has a post on Instagram bragging about his tow rig and boat on a level that most people would find incredibly arrogant. Then it’s implied he is a 1%er, gets quite defensive and the defense is that it isn’t even his truck so that makes it ok. Alrighty then...

So a topic or a point isn’t valid based on who it comes from? 

Seems legit

[nyryan2001]

These aren’t $150-$200k boats if you never pay that for them.  You’re solving the wrong problem unless you truly pay cash for boats, or you take a bath in buying a boat no one wants to buy used.

They are $750-$1200 a month boats (while you actually have it), plus insurance, gas, storage, sales tax, maintenance.... less depreciation and damages.

When will the bubble pop? ( this is also a false imperative, more appropriate would be when will it slow down)

- when sales prices or interest rates increase and payments get north of the $2000 $2500/month range, starts to exclude the majority of family incomes.

Lots of folks have disposable income in that range.  There’s still quite a ways to go with price increases

[tjklein]

3 hours ago, nyryan2001 said:

These aren’t $150-$200k boats if you never pay that for them.  You’re solving the wrong problem unless you truly pay cash for boats, or you take a bath in buying a boat no one wants to buy used.

They are $750-$1200 a month boats (while you actually have it), plus insurance, gas, storage, sales tax, maintenance.... less depreciation and damages.

When will the bubble pop? ( this is also a false imperative, more appropriate would be when will it slow down)

- when sales prices or interest rates increase and payments get north of the $2000 $2500/month range, starts to exclude the majority of family incomes.

Lots of folks have disposable income in that range.  There’s still quite a ways to go with price increases

They are $750-$1200 a month boats (while you actually have it), plus insurance, gas, storage, sales tax, maintenance.... less depreciation and damages.

This is exactly why the ceiling is so high.  Great point.

 

[MalibuNation]

I've been looking at pontoons with at least a 250hp and the prices are unbelievable.

[ahopkins22LSV]

33 minutes ago, MalibuNation said:

I've been looking at pontoons with at least a 250hp and the prices are unbelievable.

I know! That is why my friends I used in this example actually bought a 23 LSV to sit on the other side of their dock from their Response. Was the same price and they surf now too.

[MalibuNation]

I priced one with two 400hp OB's ... like the Aerosmith song "Dream On".

[CJAY]

8 hours ago, nyryan2001 said:

These aren’t $150-$200k boats if you never pay that for them.  You’re solving the wrong problem unless you truly pay cash for boats, or you take a bath in buying a boat no one wants to buy used.

They are $750-$1200 a month boats (while you actually have it), plus insurance, gas, storage, sales tax, maintenance.... less depreciation and damages.

When will the bubble pop? ( this is also a false imperative, more appropriate would be when will it slow down)

- when sales prices or interest rates increase and payments get north of the $2000 $2500/month range, starts to exclude the majority of family incomes.

Lots of folks have disposable income in that range.  There’s still quite a ways to go with price increases

I think it all depends on interest rates increases really.  In the end if the bank is willing to loan it at a payment people can afford the manufactures will increase prices.  I don't see that being the case much longer though.  Once the banks quit lending cheap loans the market will fall

[DAI]

I'm at my ceiling - Cannot get myself to write a check for 100k for something that only gets used less than 6 months out of the year (I'm a cash only person for toys).  Maybe when I retire and move to a warmer climate I would, but doubt it.

As for an overall ceiling, the banks should be setting it with responsible loans amount, rates and maturity timing.  If irresponsible management comes into play again with the next slowdown, I hope we let all the irresponsible banks fail this time around and we take the pain as we did not learn our lesson when they were bailed out in the last round.  I was a shareholder in a s-corp local bank that failed in the economic downturn, and regret not voicing at meetings the irresponsibility of the CEO and board members approving what we all knew were higher risk loans.  BTW - that CEO is now the CEO of another bank 

[Pnwrider]

seem to be a lot of people citing interest rates and easy/cheap financing. While I don’t disagree that helps makes these boats more attainable, I don’t see rising interest rates effecting a ceiling in the short term. Let’s use an example of a 150k loan. A 1% increase in interest rates only equates to about $85 more per month. That’s not even half a tank of gas. In order for the payment to double ( @nyryan2001 estimate of when we will hit the ceiling) interest rates would have to TRIPLE from where they are today (assuming all other factors remain the same). Meaning, we would need to see interest rates in the mid to high teens. Boat prices are rising much faster than interest rates. I see that being the bigger issue in pricing people out. 

[minnmarker]

I would be interested to know the proportion of new wakes boats that are financed (say 40% or less down payment) vs bought with cash - and whether that varies by region.