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Bawshogg

Where’s the ceiling ?

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Bawshogg

Been pondering the rapid changes that have gone on in the inboard industry in the last 5-6 years . 

Being the avid towboat fan I am , I kinda have my fingers on the pulse of the market for the most part . It has been very interesting to watch and follow the rapid increases in pricing with no real end in sight for where /when they will hit the preverbial ceiling . 

The 5-7% price increases just keep rolling on year after year .... not such a big deal on a 50k boat , but as they reach 200k .... that’s a BIG deal. Trade wars and tarrif issues now have a looming effect on real cost to build . 

Just wanted to open dialogue as to what exactly you guys think will be the ceiling? 

Even with prices as high as they are , interest rates climbing , and wages staying fairly stagnant , sales keep climbing . It’s a very interesting phenomenon to me having been in this for as long as I have . 

6 years ago when the G23 launched it was one of the first boats to eclipse that 100k mark. You coulda swore the end of the world was near then... fast forward to 2018 ...that largely similar G23 is MSRP’d at almost 235k ... over 100 percent increase in MSRP.

 

💁🏿‍♂️

 

 

 

 

Edited by Bawshogg

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oldjeep

Anybody crazy enough to spend 200k on a wakeboat will pay 214k.  The ceiling will be whatever the price is right before the next financial collapse. 

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Nitrousbird

It will keep climbing until the next recession.  I see there being a market correction in the industry far more destructive than 2009.  Prices have gone out of control, new and used.

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Cole2001

It’s insane, the prices aren’t stopping at all. 

I just got a quote on a Ri237 from my dealer and the msrp was 250k! Cad. You can’t get a G for under 200k, we can sell our 16 Tige for more than what we payed for it..

As a Canadian who depends on the USA imports for a family business it’s getting a little much... 

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Bawshogg

This is exactly what I am taking about .... I know we can all sit here and say “this is insane “ .... but the manufactures are not stupid ... they are ALL following the same structures for the most part. So this leads you to believe this IS a reflection of real cost to build . And SALES numbers are the highest since 2008... so what is this saying ? 

 The entry level boats are even creeping on 100k now . 

Now I know MSRP is NOT what anyone typically pays , but even at that with a healthy discount involved it’s still all in perspective .

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wheelman
7 minutes ago, Cole2001 said:

It’s insane, the prices aren’t stopping at all. 

I just got a quote on a Ri237 from my dealer and the msrp was 250k! Cad. You can’t get a G for under 200k, we can sell our 16 Tige for more than what we payed for it..

As a Canadian who depends on the USA imports for a family business it’s getting a little much... 

250k? There’s something wrong there. Even if you checked every box. 

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wheelman

@Bawshogg

baws look how easy you sold your last 2 new boats. When someone can sell their one year old boat for the same or more than they paid for it it makes swallowing the 5% increase per year easier. I agree it’s crazy

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Bawshogg

No doubt ... that’s part of what got me spinning ... both sold in less than a week , full asking price .👍🏾💰

But even at that it almost makes it counter productive with the price increases as much as they are each year .

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shawndoggy

don't forget that the new boats all burn more fuel than ever and require a bigger badder tow vehicle too.

When we got into this only 10 years ago, one of the "big" boats we were looking at was a 2002 23LSV.  My "puny" T22 is in all respects bigger than that boat.  

For guys who are financing the tow rig and the boat and spending $200 a day to tow the boat and use it on the water (in this age of stagnant wages) where is the money coming from?

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tjklein

It is crazy.  I have a place on a 850 acre lake.  When I bought my my lake place 3 years ago I had the only real wake surf boat.  This year alone we had 2 new Nautiques, an X23, a Moomba, and a Supra.  

I love getting out in the boat and have been pondering a new one, but I'm enjoying it less than I used to so we'll see.  My 17 MXZ came in around $115k and at that price it's got to be a main hobby to justify the boat, lift, gas, insurance and so on.  I put on 25 hours this year...that's $$$/hr.

One thing is for sure.  The boat business is booming.

Edited by tjklein

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wheelman

There’s a lot of money around. Even in Canada when oil took a huge dive which is Alberta’s main economy wizard was still selling more brand new g’s than they could get. They have a long list of customers that upgrade theirs g’s ever year 

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Bawshogg

I could care less about the fuel... I never factor that in with a purchase like this... it’s just like my RV.... put gas in till I get there , put gas in until I get home . Nothing you can do about that . And I feel like the fuel costs are the least of the worries .

But yes , 3/4 and 1 ton tow rigs are a must now ... and that really messes with the family rig plan as most women don’t wanna drive a big ol truck everywhere .... nor do I . 

What do you think will be the price point when people say “enough” ? Or do you think the will continue to rise until the whole economy takes a plunge ?

Edited by Bawshogg

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Cole2001
26 minutes ago, wheelman said:

250k? There’s something wrong there. Even if you checked every box. 

Every box on a 19. You’re adding 40% on the American price essentially. 

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Bawshogg

About right from my calculations. Your all

good @Cole2001.👍🏾

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wheelman
11 minutes ago, Cole2001 said:

Every box on a 19. You’re adding 40% on the American price essentially. 

Fair enough with adding in the tarrif now. The msrp’s always blow my mind as they are so inflated and when we’re talking about 250k that number comes down significantly even with a modest % off. 

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Cole2001

That 250 boat does retail for under 200 but still not happening..  

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wheelman
5 minutes ago, Cole2001 said:

That 250 boat does retail for under 200 but still not happening..  

Mine sure looks good to me right now. That’s just crazy. I was talking with dealer today and they say they are selling new centurions well but having a tough time with the used ones. There’s an 18 coming with 380 hours on it, I’m sure you could get a heck of a deal on it. 

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wheelman
27 minutes ago, Bawshogg said:

I could care less about the fuel... I never factor that in with a purchase like this... it’s just like my RV.... put gas in till I get there , put gas in until I get home . Nothing you can do about that . And I feel like the fuel costs are the least of the worries .

But yes , 3/4 and 1 ton tow rigs are a must now ... and that really messes with the family rig plan as most women don’t wanna drive a big ol truck everywhere .... nor do I . 

What do you think will be the price point when people say “enough” ? Or do you think the will continue to rise until the whole economy takes a plunge ?

Sounds like the housing question that has been happening up her for 10 + years. We keep saying this is the year it’s gonna crash but it doesn’t. My question is where is the extra markup going every year? Is it  going to the manufactures bottom line? Is it going to employees? Yet you guys say wages are stagnant. Is the cost of good rising that much? Is it like gas prices? We all complain when they go up but keep on filling up anyway. 

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Cole2001
6 minutes ago, wheelman said:

Mine sure looks good to me right now. That’s just crazy. I was talking with dealer today and they say they are selling new centurions well but having a tough time with the used ones. There’s an 18 coming with 380 hours on it, I’m sure you could get a heck of a deal on it. 

Nah I’m good. I’ve been in that boat for at least 30, nice boat and it still looks new. 

The blue 18 Ri they have left is still a decent price. They honestly didn’t know what to give me for my rzx just cuz the market is all over the place right now. 

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Eagleboy99

Was there a big price reset after 2008?  hmmmm....  Prices have gone way up while mfg. costs  have not (as much)

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Cole2001

Mfg. costs haven’t gone up a ton in terms of the build. Buuuut what has gone up is the technology being put in these boats. 12k sound, 9k power tower, 4K clamp racks, 10k engine upgrade, a boat that weighs twice as much... When you think of it it’s kinda relative. 

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isellacuras

I agree it's got to be close but I've said it before..., and a lot lately. Prices are jumping and rates are creeping so soon it will become out of reach and things will slow. I am hopeful and optimistic that things will flatten out instead of rise and burst but either way, the boat market and the economy as a whole will follow suit. My crystal ball says next year but it's been wrong before. 

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67King

Just MO, but the market is way overdue for a big correction.  I don't know when that will come, but when it does, IMO, the industry is going to get hit pretty hard.  I've already rebalanced my portfolio from 95% equities to 70%, and I may bring it down to 50%.

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