Where’s the ceiling ?

[CJAY]

6 hours ago, Eagleboy99 said:

Was there a big price reset after 2008?  hmmmm....  Prices have gone way up while mfg. costs  have not (as much)

There was, you could get boats for super cheap in the last crash.  Friend got a loaded 2009 vlx for 40% off msrp.  Dealers couldn’t give away boats

[oldjeep]

11 minutes ago, CJAY said:

There was, you could get boats for super cheap in the last crash.  Friend got a loaded 2009 vlx for 40% off msrp.  Dealers couldn’t give away boats

Yup, we bought a couple of new cars in 2009 because of the deals you coukd get. 

[Eagleboy99]

7 hours ago, Cole2001 said:

Mfg. costs haven’t gone up a ton in terms of the build. Buuuut what has gone up is the technology being put in these boats. 12k sound, 9k power tower, 4K clamp racks, 10k engine upgrade, a boat that weighs twice as much... When you think of it it’s kinda relative. 

JUst imagine the markup on a 12K stereo! And you thought auto accessories were insane.

[Stevo]

9 hours ago, Bawshogg said:

This is exactly what I am taking about .... I know we can all sit here and say “this is insane “ .... but the manufactures are not stupid ... they are ALL following the same structures for the most part. So this leads you to believe this IS a reflection of real cost to build . And SALES numbers are the highest since 2008... so what is this saying ? 

 The entry level boats are even creeping on 100k now . 

Now I know MSRP is NOT what anyone typically pays , but even at that with a healthy discount involved it’s still all in perspective .

I have a question.

Why do you even care??  Aparently

“$$ Money ain’t no Thang”

 

[granddaddy55]

10 hours ago, wheelman said:

@Bawshogg

baws look how easy you sold your last 2 new boats. When someone can sell their one year old boat for the same or more than they paid for it it makes swallowing the 5% increase per year easier. I agree it’s crazy

It’s not five it’s ten percent, @teamerickson said he was offered an on floor 2014  23LSV for 74-78 k, four model years later they are 110++++++k, that’s 10x10x10x10 giving you 44-45% in four years

Edited September 12, 2018 by granddaddy55

[granddaddy55]

54 minutes ago, Stevo said:

I have a question.

Why do you even care??  Aparently

“$$ Money ain’t no Thang”

 

Cause he’s the 1%, yet he knows there’s lots of 99%’s the industry depends on, I’m stuck in my $50000 boat, so that means I’m no longer part of the customers they are seeking, 

but with the deregulation in this country going on I doubt there will be a crash, government created Fannie Freddie forced lending that caused that crash, hopefully treasury and Fed will tighten cash screws( the only thing we need them to regulate , which during republican administrations they seem to always raise the cost of capital , under Bush they made six 1/2% increases and 2 or 3 quarter point increases) , new Republican admin, back to raising cost of capital

Edited September 12, 2018 by granddaddy55

[granddaddy55]

2 hours ago, oldjeep said:

Yup, we bought a couple of new cars in 2009 because of the deals you coukd get. 

they were giving away quad cab V8 trucks cause gas thing just like in Carter Years was going insane

[Eagleboy99]

Well if the boats are doubling in price every 6 or 7 years, then there has to be a ceiling somewhere.  Or an opportunity.  Heck Malibu already proved that by starting Axis.  Another factor for us in colder climes is that you get 3 OR 4 months (except for the real die hards) of use; that is not a lot of use/yr for 100-200K!

Edited September 12, 2018 by Eagleboy99

[CJAY]

35 minutes ago, granddaddy55 said:

Cause he’s the 1%, yet he knows there’s lots of 99%’s the industry depends on, I’m stuck in my $50000 boat, so that means I’m no longer part of the customers they are seeking, 

but with the deregulation in this country going on I doubt there will be a crash, government created Fannie Freddie forced lending that caused that crash, hopefully treasury and Fed will tighten cash screws( the only thing we need them to regulate , which during republican administrations they seem to always raise the cost of capital , under Bush they made six 1/2% increases and 2 or 3 quarter point increases) , new Republican admin, back to raising cost of capital

The yield curve is flattening, the debt of the avg american is higher than the last crash, the US deficit is sky rocketing, the fed is raising rates, the housing bubble is absurdly huge, the use of tarrifs is complete ignorance and has a large chance of putting us in stagflation.  The stock market goes in cycles, there will always be another down cycle, it's just how bad will it be.  Right now many indicators show it will be very bad, probably worse than the last one.  Fannie and freddie mac helped the crash, but the real issue was the use of predatory loans and loop holes in the mortgage industry by lenders.  Luckily that hasn't happened, but banks are loaning out money irresponsibly, as can be seen in the unrealistic inflation of the subject at hand.  We are approaching a down cycle, now will it be a crash, most likely

[CJAY]

14 minutes ago, Eagleboy99 said:

Well if the boats are doubling in price every 6 or 7 years, then there has to be a ceiling somewhere.  Or an opportunity.  Heck Malibu already proved that by starting Axis.  Another factor for us in colder climes is that you get 304 months (except for the real die hards) of use; that is not a lot of use/yr for 100-200K!

The ceiling is how much will the banks loan the avg buyer and at what terms.  As the interest rates increase less and less people will be able to afford payments on large loans, even with long terms.  this will cap the prices, and if we have a crash where banks aren't lending you'll see prices , along with production, drop significantly.

[Stevo]

47 minutes ago, granddaddy55 said:

but with the deregulation in this country going on I doubt there will be a crash, government created Fannie Freddie forced lending that caused that crash, hopefully treasury and Fed will tighten cash screws( the only thing we need them to regulate , which during republican administrations they seem to always raise the cost of capital , under Bush they made six 1/2% increases and 2 or 3 quarter point increases) , new Republican admin, back to raising cost of capital

Yes , because deregulation allows financial institutions to make sound financial instruments, and cosy, mutually beneficial relationships between ratings companies and financial firms are gonna keep the economy in the right track with little to no risk of history repeating itself.

[minnmarker]

19 minutes ago, CJAY said:

We are approaching a down cycle, now will it be a crash, most likely

I don't think you are right.  Now is not like 2008.  But if you are right then I know when I'll be buying my next boat - with cash!

[River Monsters]

Personally hoping to pickup one of these new boats when the next recession hits.  Should be a pretty good selection with this red hot market shipping out boats at a fast rate.

If you actually use a boat you borrowed money on, that is one thing.  All the new boats on our water sit around after the first season.  Many don't go through a tank of gas.  Making those payments in January on a boat you didn't use must be a total drag.

Edited September 12, 2018 by River Monsters
.

[teamerickson]

Is it wintertime already?!?!  

[shawndoggy]

11 hours ago, Bawshogg said:

I could care less about the fuel... I never factor that in with a purchase like this... it’s just like my RV.... put gas in till I get there , put gas in until I get home . Nothing you can do about that . And I feel like the fuel costs are the least of the worries .

I agree... I guess what I'm asking is whether the increased monthly carrying cost of $60K truck payment / $175K boat payment vs. $35K truck payment / $75K boat payment is impacting the fuel budget (let alone that the more expensive rig/boat are likely burning more fuel too)?

[shawndoggy]

16 minutes ago, River Monsters said:

Personally hoping to pickup one of these new boats when the next recession hits.

haha during the last recession I was feeling pretty "recessed" myself.  20/20 hindsight I shoulda gone huge in 2010/2011 on house/truck/boat but that would've felt really stupid at the time and there was no way to predict the outcome.

[Fman]

Look at what a new Ford F350 runs these days?  There is one at the local Ford dealer with a sticker price of $97k (lifted and blinged out).  RV's and tow haulers are no different... everyone is jumping on the 4% increase annually.  I have a few good friends who live to the hill, no retirement planning, finance everything, but could care less and just want to have fun in life.  There is also ZERO accountability, whenever this "crash" happens and people can't afford there $150k boats they just turn them in and walk away.  Two years later there credit is back up and they are doing the same thing again.  Guarantee there are people in 2008 who lost there homes, boats, RV's, etc... who are living in big houses again, have all there toys back and are laughing to the bank.

[oldjeep]

36 minutes ago, teamerickson said:

Is it wintertime already?!?!  

Hopefully not for another month or so. 

[oldjeep]

15 minutes ago, Fman said:

Look at what a new Ford F350 runs these days?  There is one at the local Ford dealer with a sticker price of $97k (lifted and blinged out).  RV's and tow haulers are no different... everyone is jumping on the 4% increase annually.  I have a few good friends who live to the hill, no retirement planning, finance everything, but could care less and just want to have fun in life.  There is also ZERO accountability, whenever this "crash" happens and people can't afford there $150k boats they just turn them in and walk away.  Two years later there credit is back up and they are doing the same thing again.  Guarantee there are people in 2008 who lost there homes, boats, RV's, etc... who are living in big houses again, have all there toys back and are laughing to the bank.

Well - sort of.  A new F350 can be had at a reasonable price, pretty close to what you could pay for them 9 years ago (same for any pickup).  What has changed is the pickup as a status symbol thing where people are buying 20-30K of over priced options .  My 2wd 2009 ram SLT/Bighorn cost me 33K brand new in 2009 (before T&L).  My 4wd 2018 SLT/Bighorn Ram cost me 35K in 2018 brand new(before T&L).  Not much of a difference and the 2018 has 4wd and a ton more base equipment.

But to the point on over spending, I agree.  Everyone seems to be back to buying a payment rather than being aware of what they are spending and how long they are going to be underwater on over priced toys.

I don't want there to be another crash, but if there is one I plan to be ready to buy that retirement/second home on a lake up north.

Edited September 12, 2018 by oldjeep

[CJAY]

1 hour ago, minnmarker said:

I don't think you are right.  Now is not like 2008.  But if you are right then I know when I'll be buying my next boat - with cash!

Depends on which economists you read, some think the solutions our government used to end the last recession will be the cause of this one being much worse, and that our economy is actually been a house of cards since

[AJwakedevil]

Thanks for the quick economic update. I know I can always count on Y'all. I hate thinking about spending 5 YEARS saving up for a nice boat... I mean im going to be 30!! at the point.. but all this talk really solidifies the notion of outright owning it instead of borrowing for it.

 

I look forward to see whats available in our price range at that time in 5 years.

[oldjeep]

1 minute ago, AJwakedevil said:

Thanks for the quick economic update. I know I can always count on Y'all. I hate thinking about spending 5 YEARS saving up for a nice boat... I mean im going to be 30!! at the point.. but all this talk really solidifies the notion of outright owning it instead of borrowing for it.

 

I look forward to see whats available in our price range at that time in 5 years.

I don't have any issue borrowing for one - I still owe some on the 2012 I bought in 2014.  The main concern is to make sure that you don't bury yourself and wind up with something that cannot be sold for what you owe if the SHTF and toys have to go.  I feel plenty happy owning the house outright and owing money on things that don't really matter

[River Monsters]

25 minutes ago, shawndoggy said:

haha during the last recession I was feeling pretty "recessed" myself.  20/20 hindsight I shoulda gone huge in 2010/2011 on house/truck/boat but that would've felt really stupid at the time and there was no way to predict the outcome.

We purchased a waterfront house in 2011.   Hopefully we don't get caught up in the next one.

[minnmarker]

Just now, River Monsters said:

We purchased a waterfront house in 2011.   Hopefully we don't get caught up in the next one.

If you want to feel good look up the value in 2007/8.  You probably bought at the right time!

[Cole2001]

Our local house market has gone insane with so many new opportunities in our area you can’t find a house for anything decent. Our 350k house could probably sell for 600 within a couple days on the market. 

Or just look at the Vancouver area, our house in Vancouver suburban areas would be multi million. Something I can’t fathom...