Where’s the ceiling ?

[ahopkins22LSV]

6 minutes ago, wheelman said:

Now you are just plain making things up and sounding stupid. I challenge you to find a thread where I have bashed tmc, you  will actually find quite the opposite and find some threads with me  saying tmc is the best boat forum on the internet and lots of the best guys on the site, that I actually have never even met. As for bashing Malibu, again I challenge you. 

Thanks for the grammar lesson by the way, guess I’m just another blue collar uneducated bum , you want my instagram address so you can check out all the things I own? Or don’t own? Lol 

 

Sorry I am probably wrong on the bashing, to be honest that was shoot from the hip shot. Just seems like more and more people are here to complain or bash Malibu. Either way, I attempted to explain the way I saw the original post and then later what my thoughts were on the IG post as I was scrolling. 

Btw I have the upmost respect for blue collar trades and workers. That’s a whole other thread topic but it’s a huge problem in this country that is going to bite us big time if everyone going forward is still damn near brainwashed to go to college to be some white collar 9-5 sit behind a desk career

[Chrisjjbrown]

29 minutes ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

Alrighty then. I’m not the least bit offended, in fact I got s chuckle out of it just because I thought it was ironic, maybe I read too deeply into your price increasing post, maybe not.. yes I think that IG post was arrogant. If that makes me sensitive in your opinion then ok. I wasn’t bashing you for having that setup nor did I ever say you were here trying to bash malibu or TMC... I’d love a super duty, it just wasn’t in the cards when I was truck shopping last - financially responsible decision... and I really like my good friends Ri he got this year . Plus, I actually answered your questioned in a well thought out post, or so I thought and now you have resorted to childish name calling over a post or two that you don’t like. And my clique?? No personal connection to anyone who has posted in this thread, but ok...maybe this site is too intimidating because if you disagree or question someone or their post, three posts later your are reading a post like yours. Good work! 

 

1 hour ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

Sorry but sharing some cool things that we bought in a thread intended for it every so often isn’t the same as when you are scrolling through here or IG and see a platinum super duty and RI257 with the tag line “When 💵 ain’t no thang...”. Inside joke or setup picture or not that can be considered very arrogant. But hey keep showing up to bash TMC and Malibu at whatever chance you get. 

Oh and, weather, whether

Actually you did say that exactly 😄

[Bawshogg]

I ain’t crazy...

[wheelman]

Lol, come on I at least wanted you to look for a little while  

Yes so do I have the upmost respect for them, without them my business would not survive. I must say though, some of the milenials can be a little challenging at times. No disrespect to any milenial here, lol 

[UWSkier]

Ceiling has been hit for me already, but as I'm a slalom skier on open water primarily, it makes sense.  My '01 Response skis 90% as well as a new 75k slalom boat, gets better fuel economy doing it, is far easier to work on, looks way better than the newer boats, and is plenty big for my needs.  I bought it for less than a surf barge down payment without putting a scratch in my finances and LOOOOOOVE it.

The surf-boat arms race is certainly entertaining to watch though!

Edited September 13, 2018 by UWSkier

[ahopkins22LSV]

13 minutes ago, Chrisjjbrown said:

 

Actually you did say that exactly 😄

Except I did quoted wheelman so I was talking to him... you know, how quoting someone works. He seemed to get it as we have already had a few other posts back to each other  

Edited September 13, 2018 by ahopkinsVTX

[JMVOTTO]

From 2008 to 2018. The technology in boat instrumentation, engines , ballasts etc have grown exponentially.  Before that it was stagnant for years.   Boating industry is just catching up with the auto industry and and the dovish fed policy over the last 10 years has helped .  Toys including Rvs, boats, atvs, utvs have exploded as today’s buyers Want immediate satisfaction .  

 

[Eagleboy99]

12 minutes ago, JMVOTTO said:

From 2008 to 2018. The technology in boat instrumentation, engines , ballasts etc have grown exponentially.  Before that it was stagnant for years.   Boating industry is just catching up with the auto industry and and the dovish fed policy over the last 10 years has helped .  Toys including Rvs, boats, atvs, utvs have exploded as today’s buyers Want immediate satisfaction .  

 

So very true.  For anyone say, over 40, remember what a starter home was?  Now it MUST have granite counter tops, stainless appliance, a 50" 4K tv etc.

[oldjeep]

4 minutes ago, Eagleboy99 said:

So very true.  For anyone say, over 40, remember what a starter home was?  Now it MUST have granite counter tops, stainless appliance, a 50" 4K tv etc.

I'm still living in it 😁 and granite is so 10 years ago, its all cambria or quartz now. 

[Eagleboy99]

2 minutes ago, oldjeep said:

I'm still living in it 😁 and granite is so 10 years ago, its all cambria or quartz now. 

LMAO!  So true!  Then again EVERYTHING comes back.  Like purple gel.  One of the best sellers in the Malibu stable.  I was 20 years ahead of the trend. 

[D_Turner]

This thread sure veered off course.   The original post had a good point for discussion which had nothing to do with the sidetrack we took.

I guess if the available build slots at the manufacturers are used up every year, the simple rule of supply and demand plays some role.  I don't keep up with each manufacturers' available slots, but it seems the past few years things have been rolling along so good that they don't have a problem selling the boats they produce right?  I would think that has been a huge aspect of the price increases.  The old saying "Get it while you can" applies to most businesses.  If you have way more business than you can handle, most businesses either a)pick and choose the work they want and/or b)tick up prices.

Where does it stop?  It will probably take an economic slowdown, market saturation, or some broader wakeboat restrictions for it to stop in the next few years.  I can't see the prices really slowing much without one of those 3 things happening.  The banks will lend the money so people will keep buying.  When I finally bought my 2017 after wanting one for 15 years, I tried to get a short loan as most of my disposable assets were in stocks so I wanted a little leeway in selling stuff off to pay for the boat.  The dealership shopped around the loan and every single bank wanted to do a 15 year loan.  I was like I don't want a 15 year loan, but they didn't care.  So I ended up with a 15 year loan that I paid off in 12 months.  I don't think that is the norm though.  Most people get that 15 year loan which makes that monthly payment look pretty good although that $100,000 boat turns into a $130k boat.  The next thing people do with that 'low' 15 year boat payment is grab that nicer car, bigger house, etc, etc.  It seems to me things are creeping back up again.  I look around and see things starting to look like the last bubble.  There are probably 1000+ houses being built in subdivisions within 10 miles of me.  None are small houses.  Everything is 2-3 story with 4-5 bedrooms and the prices just keep going up.  Everybody is driving new cars and trading up for new all the time.  I look around and the only thing I see is DEBT, but that's just me. 

I wanted to say that market competition could help it also, but the boat market is more like the high end or hot rod car market I think.  Most people I think have some image of a boat they have always wanted for whatever reason or has been a part of their life so they stick with that.  This purchase is more of a lifestyle purchase instead of a necessity.   I got on the Malibu kick in the early-mid 2000s and have always wanted to own one.  So when I finally got ready to buy, I bought a Malibu.  The typical car market is nothing like that.  I don't think competition really has a huge effect in the boat market at least in it's current environment.  People are stuck to a manufacturer or image and pay it.  Only way I ever see that changing with competition is if say one of the big brands all of sudden starts REALLY cutting prices to grab market share.  I don't see that happening anytime soon though.  The big brands are not having a hard time filling their build slots as is so what is the point in cutting to gain market share if you are already producing close to max.

As I type this, I have CNBC playing in the background with the special show "Crisis On Wall Street: The Week That Shook The World" which has to do with the collapse 10 years ago.   The things I worry with the overall economy now is the typical stuff.  Corporate Debt as a % of GDP is highest it has been.  The last 3 times it was near this level we had a recession.  Consumer debt is increasing.  At some point, interest rates will be a wake up call on all this stuff.  When will it hit the tipping point?  How fast will the Fed raise rates?  Get out your crystal balls.

Edited September 13, 2018 by D_Turner

[wheelman]

4 minutes ago, Eagleboy99 said:

So very true.  For anyone say, over 40, remember what a starter home was?  Now it MUST have granite counter tops, stainless appliance, a 50" 4K tv etc.

Just wait till almond appliance and blue and pink toilets and sink come back in style. Hey shag carpet made its way around again. 

[Bawshogg]

This is what I was hoping to get out of the thread ... thank you @D_Turner

At what price point do YOU go ... F that ? 200k ... 250k?  Just curious .

[jwl019]

My point is anyone of the boats that actually ends up costing over $100k. I don't see myself paying that. Even Axis and Moomba is starting to knock on that door, and with a few more years of increase they will be, so I will just be sticking around buying used in the future most likely unless something happens and it changes.

[formulaben]

14 minutes ago, Bawshogg said:

This is what I was hoping to get out of the thread ... thank you @D_Turner

At what price point did YOU go ... F that ? 200k ... 250k?  Just curious .

Fixed. 

[wheelman]

I don’t think we are the ones driving this market. I would say it’s fair to say most of us on this site are the true boating enthusiasts and have worked are way up the boat market into new boats. How many boats have we owned? We did not just walk into the dealership and buy 6 figure + boats for cash or finance the whole thing.  Probably built up a big down payment over the years of boating in different boats paying them down as we go a long. While this has helped drive the market I look around my lake and see new multi million dollar properties going up with brand new boats sitting at the dock which barely ever move. These guys have stupid money where it just doesn’t matter to them and it doesnt matter what it costs. 

[D_Turner]

21 minutes ago, Bawshogg said:

This is what I was hoping to get out of the thread ... thank you @D_Turner

At what price point do YOU go ... F that ? 200k ... 250k?  Just curious .

Without an economic collapse, I think interest rates will be the key here.....which could lead to the economic slowdown.

A few numbers for comparison

$125,000 loan @ 4% for 15 years = $924.61/month with a total cost of loan at $166,429

$175,000 loan @ 8% for 15 years = $1672.39/month with a total cost of loan of $301,030

More purchase price appreciation combined with a considerable interest rate jump begins to seriously hit the wallet.  Interests rates have already come up off those ultra low rates of a couple years ago.   I think the 'average' buyer looks at that monthly payment cost more than the the actual price.  Once that monthly payment gets out of reach, it WILL slowdown.  I have never been in the situation so can't really say from personal experience, but I wouldn't be surprised if the average debtor's price point, if surveyed, would be when their boat payment creeps up on their house payment.  I couldn't imagine paying a monthly payment on a wakeboat equal to or higher than a house payment.  With higher rates and a little higher prices you are getting there for many people.

However, the next bank offering will be 30 year loans on wake boats. 

Edited September 13, 2018 by D_Turner

[shawndoggy]

1 hour ago, formulaben said:

Reminds me of a previous Ferrari president when he said "We don't sell really a car, but we sell a dream."  I think the dream of surfing is far more powerful than the dream of wakeboarding, especially for older affluent males which would account for a lot of recent sales growth, IMHO.

THIS!  As long as fat middle aged guys can convince themselves that they are "athletes" by pushing 4 tons of boat/ballast at 15+gph to surf on, and they have the scratch to do it...

(sorry I know this is answering the question baws didn't ask (why price growth?) not how long will it last)

has the price growth in DD ski tugs kept pace with 23lsvs?

[wheelman]

I can say for myself the answer is now. I have a 2017 boat and absolutely love everything about it and have it totally dialed in in all aspects. I am fortunate enough to own it outright and in this stage of my life can’t see myself finacing a bunch more money to get a few years newer and do basically the exact same thing. As another few years go by I will be even further away from a new boat so I just can’t see it happening. Well till I’m done with water sports and get the Mack daddy pontoon.  Surfgate  changed the industry, it was truly a game changer. What is going to come out with the same impact as that?

[Bawshogg]

No but I feel like it rings very true .... but who else has the cash flow to afford these boats ? I mean really ... you have to be well established to either have the cash or be able to finance one .

When I first bought a new boat I was in my 20’s had a decent job and my own home.... could easily afford a new boat at 35g’s .... you can’t say that about most 20 something’s and prices these days ... and yes I was in much better shape .

And to answer the ski -tug question .... they are spendy too... 75k or so real price on a TXI... gotta day when I saw that boat I was in love ... just wanted to take it out and rip... instantly took me back to my childhood .. such a cool little boat .

 

Edited September 13, 2018 by Bawshogg

[NWBU]

3 hours ago, shawndoggy said:

THIS!  As long as fat middle aged guys can convince themselves that they are "athletes" by pushing 4 tons of boat/ballast at 15+gph to surf on, and they have the scratch to do it...

(sorry I know this is answering the question baws didn't ask (why price growth?) not how long will it last)

has the price growth in DD ski tugs kept pace with 23lsvs?

This is exactly what Malibu is seeing too and why they’re telling folks how much upside they still see in this market. For what it’s worth, Mastercraft’s earnings calls sound almost identical to Malibu’s, so I have to assume Correct Craft is having a similar discussion within their leadership team.

Here’s the customer profile Malibu was talking about just this morning at their investor day (wasn’t invited to it of course but it’s all on their website). 

[Chrisjjbrown]

9 hours ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

Except I did quoted wheelman so I was talking to him... you know, how quoting someone works. He seemed to get it as we have already had a few other posts back to each other  

Lame......  you were taking a shot at Baws as well w that post no matter who you quoted.     At least own it.  

You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it. 

[ahopkins22LSV]

8 minutes ago, Chrisjjbrown said:

Lame......  you were taking a shot at Baws as well w that post no matter who you quoted.     At least own it.  

You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it. 

I was not in regards to the slamming TMC and Malibu that was mistakenly directly at wheelman and I was wrong and later owned up to that. Reread the thread. If you are talking about how I think the IG post was arrogant, then yes, I said that in my quote to Baws. So in regards to the fact that I never called him out for slamming TMC and Malibu you are wrong, you know it, I know it, everyone knows it. 

[ahopkins22LSV]

@shawndoggy ski boats have increased just as much as the wake boats. You can easily spend (not msrp, that would be 100+) 80-90k on a ski tug with depending on what options your pick. 

Btw, @NWBU posted a fascinating piece of data in the MBUU thread... profit margins have been flatlined for years. Which supports my answer to the is there really 100k more cost in a boat now compared to 2008? Yes it appears so with all the of changes and increased raw material costs.

 

Edited September 13, 2018 by ahopkinsVTX

[23LSVOwner]

The answer to where the ceiling is located is simple.

 

It is right below where many will stop buying.

 

Complain about all you want, but it is the reality of how it is.