Well Bye Bye Boating.....

[G-Mack]

Amen to that!

Don't like fighting for oil... two simple words..... Keystone XL.... the worlds second largest oil reserve is at your border and those same politics have stalled getting it to you.

[Pistol Pete]

Don't like fighting for oil... two simple words..... Keystone XL.... the worlds second largest oil reserve is at your border and those same politics have stalled getting it to you.

Drill baby, drill!

[Fman]

The cost of food, millk included will go way up if the fuel prices double as some suggest. Part of it will be from the increased cost of transportation for farm to processing to the store. The other part, and the one that gets lost is how the market reacts to those price increases with alternative ways of producing fuel. IE: Corn which according to the dairy farmer I spoke with on Thursday said is increasing their cost of doing business. The feed for the Cow to make the milk has to come from somewhere, and most if not all of our milk supply is corn fed. As demand for corn starts to increase for other purposes (E:85 fuel) the price of corn goes up, and that increased cost is passed on to the consumer in higher food prices. It is a vicious cycle that oddly enough is controlled by the price crude oil.

This is why I said before that our Government will intervine and make sure this does not happen. Check out this chart: Gas Prices Most of us here remember the oil shortage in the late 70's that happened because of the Iran/Iraq war. The graph points out the US price controls during the embargo in the early 70's and the late 70's. Currently the US does not use 15% of the oil we produce here in the USA according to a recent report. That combined with our oil reserves (barrels, not in the ground) will allow the US in the short term to hold prices down if the conflict ever gets to a boiling point.

Oil Consumption - Barrels per day:

1 United States 18,690,000

2 China 8,200,000

3 Japan 4,363,000

4 India 2,980,000

5 Russia 2,740,000

6 Brazil 2,460,000

7 Germany 2,437,000

8 Saudi Arabia 2,430,000

9 Korea, South 2,185,000

10 Canada 2,151,000

11 Mexico 2,078,000

12 France 1,875,000

13 Iran 1,809,000

Do you really think that #1-12 are going to let #13 control things? Iran is supposedly #4 on the list of exporters per day which will have an effect on supply, but 6-10 are within 700,000 barrels per day. Should Isreal start something, I would bet that #1-12 will step in quickly to make sure oil production doesn't change much.

I totally agree, oil dictates so many other cost factors in our life we are not even aware of and $6/gallon+ fuel will take a massive blow on the world economy. I am baffled we still have enough oil to feed this thirsty, ever growing monster.... I look at all the cars, planes, boats, etc.. that drive and fly every day, its staggering to me we still have enough food to eat and we can go fill up our tanks. I have lived in my town (now city) for almost 19 years, the population was 30,000 people when we moved here, its now close to 110,000.... the traffic sucks, and its busy... this is happening all over the world... I often wonder how long this cycle can keep repeating itself before something breaks????

Edited February 5, 2012 by Fman

[saidainc]

I totally agree, oil dictates so many other cost factors in our life we are not even aware of and $6/gallon+ fuel will take a massive blow on the world economy. I am baffled we still have enough oil to feed this thirsty, ever growing monster.... I look at all the cars, planes, boats, etc.. that drive and fly every day, its staggering to me we still have enough food to eat and we can go fill up our tanks. I have lived in my town (now city) for almost 19 years, the population was 30,000 people when we moved here, its now close to 110,000.... the traffic sucks, and its busy... this is happening all over the world... I often wonder how long this cycle can keep repeating itself before something breaks????

Dont forget, everything uses oil to be made...plastics, batteries, tvs, computers. how do you figure that if Iran blockades Hormuz where 80% of oil is exported from it wont affect prices? They can mine that stretch without much effort and even without resistance it would take 3-4 months to clear before shipping can resume. You would have to be an idiot of a president to use our supplies during that interim. Those reserves are for internal catastrophe not importation limits.

[CJAY]

The US takes less than 2% of it's oil imports from Iran, so odds are a 100% increase is unlikely. Sorry it isn't going to happen, period. Even if they try to close the straights of Hormuz it would only slightly effect oil prices temporarily.

[saidainc]

The US takes less than 2% of it's oil imports from Iran, so odds are a 100% increase is unlikely. Sorry it isn't going to happen, period. Even if they try to close the straights of Hormuz it would only slightly effect oil prices temporarily.

On an average day in 2011, about 14 tankers carrying 17 million barrels (2,700,000 m3) of crude oil passed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait. This represents 35% of the world's seaborne oil shipments, and 20% of oil traded worldwide. UAE and Saudi shipments are what Im worried about....

[CJAY]

On an average day in 2011, about 14 tankers carrying 17 million barrels (2,700,000 m3) of crude oil passed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait. This represents 35% of the world's seaborne oil shipments, and 20% of oil traded worldwide. UAE and Saudi shipments are what Im worried about....

It would only stay closed for a limited time, closing that strait would bring the world down on Iran. They don't have the forces to keep it closed any significant time. It isn't going to happen, and the US has reserves for this exact reason. The economy would tumble if prices sky rocketed, so the US would tap reserves to keep it lower. All this would do is further the world moving away form the middle east for their supplies and hurt the entire region. Iran isn't going to do it.

[JTech]

Our Navy has been there for almost a month now. Heck we have even rescued a few of their fisherman and returned them to Iran. Big Brother is not going to let Iran control that body of water period.

[Bobby Light]

This thinking is what's lame to me. We love to attack the oil companies for making money, but then we just drool over how great a company like Apple is when they make huge profits (20.7% net profit margin). Let's not forget the huge investments oil companies make to post their earnings, and they remain in one of the most heavily regulated and taxed industries in our country. If you look at profit margins, oil companies are in the middle of the pack as an industry, posting a 13.6% net profit margin in the last quarter according to Yahoo Finance. Yahoo Finance

I never understand why people don't complain about milk prices. A gallon of milk usually costs more than a gallon of gas around here, and I can assure you the process of making a gallon of gasoline is much more difficult and costly than making a gallon of milk.

Sorry for the rant. I feel better now though

Great post .

[KHenry]

If you sit around worried about the economy/oil prices and let speculation control the way you live your life you WILL miss out. I know people that won't buy a boat because of this same speculation, and ultimately it means better water for me!

[dlll]

Edited February 6, 2012 by dlll

[footndale]

As long as the pipelines don't get turned off from Canada, the upper Midwest will be fine. That's were our oil comes from, not in some desert on the other side of the globe.

[TallRedRider]

Our Navy has been there for almost a month now. Heck we have even rescued a few of their fisherman and returned them to Iran. Big Brother is not going to let Iran control that body of water period.

I would be surprised if they can even lay mines without us knowing. If Iran stepped up to block the straits, I am confident there would be a large number of Iranian warships promptly on the bottom of the ocean. You could not cripple the world's economy without some serious consequences. And Iran knows this, so they would not do it.

The decision to clear the waterways would be easy compared to the decisions to engage enemies like we have lately without a clear purpose or exit strategy. The harder question is what to do about their threatenings to bomb Israel with a nuke. No easy answer there.

Edited February 6, 2012 by TallRedRider

[nyryan2001]

I am already at just under 300$ a tank.

[old skool malibu]

and I am will to bet that no matter what happens the oil companies post record profits

and up here in Canada we will pay through the nose as usual....gas is at $1.29 a litre or $4.88 a gallon....

No you mean on the lower mainland. You are paying 30% more than Alberta! I just filled up for under a buck!

[old skool malibu]

Be careful what you wish for, if fuel reaches $6-$10/gallon it also may cause it to plummet to record lows, there is a fine line between pushing the market to hard to a full collapse.

Dont wish for it, but not complaining either!

[Bruizza]

If Iran closes the strait they shut down their ability to export oil. How do you propose Iran will pay for their war/everything else they have to pay for when they have basically no money rolling in?

[saidainc]

If Iran closes the strait they shut down their ability to export oil. How do you propose Iran will pay for their war/everything else they have to pay for when they have basically no money rolling in?

Irans economy is fairly self-contained as they produce and sell their own s***ty products. What they do import they dont use American dollars for. Trading partners are primarily the Chinese.

[saidainc]

I would be surprised if they can even lay mines without us knowing. If Iran stepped up to block the straits, I am confident there would be a large number of Iranian warships promptly on the bottom of the ocean. You could not cripple the world's economy without some serious consequences. And Iran knows this, so they would not do it.

The decision to clear the waterways would be easy compared to the decisions to engage enemies like we have lately without a clear purpose or exit strategy. The harder question is what to do about their threatenings to bomb Israel with a nuke. No easy answer there.

The Iranian Quds portion of their navy uses numerous high speed inflatables with explosives charges designed to pierce hulls. Its something the US Navy is pretty concerned about actually

Edited February 7, 2012 by saidainc

[MARiley]

>50% of the voting public would support a full-fledged war with iran to prevent them from getting a nuke. since iraq and afghanistan are proving to be GRAND successes, i can't wait to see the results of this "conflict."

[LS-One]

Our Navy has been there for almost a month now. Heck we have even rescued a few of their fisherman and returned them to Iran. Big Brother is not going to let Iran control that body of water period.

And we only know what US Navy ships are on the surface. They don't call it the silent service for nothing.

[Steve B.]

And we only know what US Navy ships are on the surface. They don't call it the silent service for nothing.

I was thinking that too. The place has to be chalk full of US sub's. Those baby's are bad to the bone !

Steve B.

[JTech]

And we only know what US Navy ships are on the surface. They don't call it the silent service for nothing.

[Jimmypooh]

Food for thought on the uneeded worry about oil crisis. You'll have to follow my math here:

The US uses 18.7 Million barrels of oil a day

1 Barrel = 1.7MWH of electricity (source)

US uses the equivalent of 31.79 million MWH per day in oil

Typical 45W Harbor Freight solar panel costs $180 (not on sale)

10 hours of sunlight a day = 450W of power per panel

We would need 70.644 billion Solar panels to eliminate the need for all oil

Divided up by every person in the US (307 million, not including companies) is 231 panels per person

That's $41,420 dollars per person.

Panels produce 80% of their original power after 40 years

$41,420 over 40 years at 5% interest is $199.73 a month (or 2396.76 per year) per person to replace the use of oil.

Or a total of $2,015,904,986 a day for the US.

We currently spend $1,841,950,000 on Oil a day ($98 per barrel).

Granted this is all academic and the true implementation costs would differ, however, this shows that solar energy could replace oil for a negligible difference. As solar power becomes more advanced and does really last longer than 40 years, it's likely the actual cost of solar power will decrease over time rather than increase as oil does. When the !@#% hits the fan and it becomes financially viable to implement solar power, It won't be as crazy as one might think. I don't ever believe in the collapse of the world economy due to an energy crisis. There are other options.

[LS-One]

Food for thought on the uneeded worry about oil crisis. You'll have to follow my math here:

The US uses 18.7 Million barrels of oil a day

1 Barrel = 1.7MWH of electricity (source)

US uses the equivalent of 31.79 million MWH per day in oil

Typical 45W Harbor Freight solar panel costs $180 (not on sale)

10 hours of sunlight a day = 450W of power per panel

We would need 70.644 billion Solar panels to eliminate the need for all oil

Divided up by every person in the US (307 million, not including companies) is 231 panels per person

That's $41,420 dollars per person.

Panels produce 80% of their original power after 40 years

$41,420 over 40 years at 5% interest is $199.73 a month (or 2396.76 per year) per person to replace the use of oil.

Or a total of $2,015,904,986 a day for the US.

We currently spend $1,841,950,000 on Oil a day ($98 per barrel).

Granted this is all academic and the true implementation costs would differ, however, this shows that solar energy could replace oil for a negligible difference. As solar power becomes more advanced and does really last longer than 40 years, it's likely the actual cost of solar power will decrease over time rather than increase as oil does. When the !@#% hits the fan and it becomes financially viable to implement solar power, It won't be as crazy as one might think. I don't ever believe in the collapse of the world economy due to an energy crisis. There are other options.

Not trying to call you out but a couple of variables in your computations are not accurate.

1. Usable sunlight per day is closer to an average of 5.5 hours.

2. Most panels start losing efficiency after twenty years, as much as 20%.