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saidainc

Well Bye Bye Boating.....

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saidainc

Im at a FOB in Afghanistan and I noticed a certain shifting of forces over the last several weeks. I cannot be specific and since Ive already blown OPSEC by saying this, it corresponds with the latest news report that indicates there is a high probability of an attack on Iran by Israel - quite possibly in the spring when airstrikes face less severe weather.

That being said, analysts predict an attack on Iran would elevate oil prices anywhere from 200 to 1000 a barrel. Gas prices were guesstimated to follow in the neighborhood of 6 to 10 dollars per gallon.

It is no secret that if gas is at these levels, I will not (could not) pay 350 to 500 per tank. My season would end before it began....

Edited by saidainc

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G-Mack

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BuFootin

Im at a FOB in Afghanistan and I noticed a certain shifting of forces over the last several weeks. I cannot be specific and since Ive already blown OPSEC by saying this, it corresponds with the latest news report that indicates there is a high probability of an attack on Iran by Israel - quite possibly in the spring when airstrikes face less severe weather.

That being said, analysts predict an attack on Iran would elevate oil prices anywhere from 200 to 1000 a barrel. Gas prices were guesstimated to follow in the neighborhood of 6 to 10 dollars per gallon.

It is no secret that if gas is at these levels, I will not (could not) pay 350 to 500 per tank. My season would end before it began....

Let's hope none of what you suggest really happens. The gas & oil prices would be the least of this countries worries.....and frankly, I'd prefer the US not get involve in yet another Middle East engagement.

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saidainc

I agree and politics aside, Im worried but hopeful.

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Nitrousbird

Yawn - every winter we hear some more "gas is going to skyrocket" BS. It won't any more than it has in years past. Bring this post up next fall and you will see.

Edited by Nitrousbird

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saidainc

Unfortunately, this isnt a jest. If Iran IS attacked (which I hope it isnt) gas will rise for several reasons but mostly because Iran is the lynch pin and can cause harmful blockage the Straight of Hormuz which most ALL the oil is exported from. Remember the Alaskan town this winter which could receive inbound fuel shipments because of ice in the bay? Gas was at 6-7 dollars a gallon and that was only after a few weeks of no shipments. Imagine a few months.

Anyway Ive got my fingers crossed.

Edited by saidainc

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TheHardWay

All the more reason to drill here!

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old skool malibu

Yes paying more for gas sucks but when you are in the industry my increase in stocks more than offsets the gas price increase!

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Nitrousbird

According to the most recent Obama ad (if you can believe that), the US is below 50% dependance on foreign oil.

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radnevrad

Very interesting. Diego Garcia is probably bristling with activity to include some of our finest. Had the pleasure of being there in the late 1980's with the Iran 1.0 version. They threatened to close the oil flow, we sailed and they didn't. Funny. Same Silkworm missles being talked about. Obviously, the game changer is nucs.

Think I better wait for the freeze to thaw today and go fill the boat and top it off with Stabil! Foiling under a mushroom cloud. Also means there is no limit on the fishing. :biggrin:

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calvinclark

Keep your boat in a slip and buy an electric car. Or heck, even one of those fancy electric boats! Problem solved. Carry on America.

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board brained

and I am will to bet that no matter what happens the oil companies post record profits Lame.gif

and up here in Canada we will pay through the nose as usual....gas is at $1.29 a litre or $4.88 a gallon....

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mainekneeboarder

Yes paying more for gas sucks but when you are in the industry my increase in stocks more than offsets the gas price increase!

Its this type of thinking in our government that is part of the reason the economy is in the position its in, "were making money with the price up, screw the rest of the population", I would bet money if any other business showed, and bragged about record profits quarter after quarter the government would step in and do something about it! Don't we have a cap on milk prices??

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JTech

News flash: This is an election year and $6-10 gas won't be happening in the US regardless of what the $ per barrel goes to... While the US reserves won't last all that long to keep prices down, I can assure you that the US Govt will not let prices skyrocket. They may go up a $1.00 per, but no way it doubles when only 20% of our oil dependence comes from that region.

Think about it, if gas were to jump to $6 or move to over double ($8) what kind of an impact it would have on the daily commerce in the US? Boating would be the least of our worries. The price of travel would almost double, food prices would spike and for those who still heat with oil, well they would be freezing. Heck, dam near 50% of our goods and services would go up in price with that kind ok a spike. Plastics, rubber, etc all use oil as a base for manufacturing. Do you really think that would happen with the current "Class Warfare" being played out in Washington? There is no way that Obama can look poor people in the eye and say "vote for me please" when a loaf of bread costs double what it did and their bus pass shot up by 40%. It would affect everyone for sure, but a large portion of his voting base is at the middle class or below, and I doubt they can take another hit in the wallet and re-elect him.

Just my .02

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Steve B.

The sky is falling ! Oh no. Now I'm worried. It will be fun to drag this thread up in six months.

Steve B.

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saidainc

News flash: This is an election year and $6-10 gas won't be happening in the US regardless of what the $ per barrel goes to... While the US reserves won't last all that long to keep prices down, I can assure you that the US Govt will not let prices skyrocket. They may go up a $1.00 per, but no way it doubles when only 20% of our oil dependence comes from that region.

Think about it, if gas were to jump to $6 or move to over double ($8) what kind of an impact it would have on the daily commerce in the US? Boating would be the least of our worries. The price of travel would almost double, food prices would spike and for those who still heat with oil, well they would be freezing. Heck, dam near 50% of our goods and services would go up in price with that kind ok a spike. Plastics, rubber, etc all use oil as a base for manufacturing. Do you really think that would happen with the current "Class Warfare" being played out in Washington? There is no way that Obama can look poor people in the eye and say "vote for me please" when a loaf of bread costs double what it did and their bus pass shot up by 40%. It would affect everyone for sure, but a large portion of his voting base is at the middle class or below, and I doubt they can take another hit in the wallet and re-elect him.

Just my .02

JTech, this really has nothing to do with US elections. Israel feels this has to be done for their nations survival. They could care less about who gets elected and more about the threat to their nation from the most feared adversary. As soon as Iran has nukes they promised in a press conference to wipe Israel off the map. It will be done regardless of how the US feels.

Edited by saidainc

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Nitrousbird

JTech, this really has nothing to do with US elections. Israel feels this has to be done for their nations survival. They could care less about who gets elected and more about the threat to their nation from the most feared adversary. As soon as Iran has nukes they promised in a press conference to wipe Israel off the map. It will be done regardless of how the US feels.

You missed the point. Whether Iran gets bombed off the plantet and cuts the supply or not (and the "or not" is what will really happen), elected officials won't let the prices role that high. Understand about 25% of our oil comes from that region, and much of that is from Saudi. Iran taking the hit will hit the oil supplies harder to other countries, which is what will drive the barrel price of oil up. THAT is where the price increase will come from, and the President can't take that kind of hit from an election year, and would simply use other ways to get the price down to a $4 or less price per gallon.

Regardless, we hear some new BS like this every year, and every year there is more BS. It isn't going to happen, enjoy mid-uppder 3's per gallon this summer.

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Fman

If oil hits $6-$10/gallon the last thing most will be concerned about is taking there boat out, this would cause an economic collapse like nothing ever seen before. Lets hope this does not happen, and maybe next time we goto war again we can actually secure some oil with it!!! Whats up with that? How did we help and protect all these countries with massive oil production and get nothing in return?

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Fman

Yes paying more for gas sucks but when you are in the industry my increase in stocks more than offsets the gas price increase!

Be careful what you wish for, if fuel reaches $6-$10/gallon it also may cause it to plummet to record lows, there is a fine line between pushing the market to hard to a full collapse.

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hethj7

and I am will to bet that no matter what happens the oil companies post record profits Lame.gif

:lame: This thinking is what's lame to me. We love to attack the oil companies for making money, but then we just drool over how great a company like Apple is when they make huge profits (20.7% net profit margin). Let's not forget the huge investments oil companies make to post their earnings, and they remain in one of the most heavily regulated and taxed industries in our country. If you look at profit margins, oil companies are in the middle of the pack as an industry, posting a 13.6% net profit margin in the last quarter according to Yahoo Finance. Yahoo Finance

I never understand why people don't complain about milk prices. A gallon of milk usually costs more than a gallon of gas around here, and I can assure you the process of making a gallon of gasoline is much more difficult and costly than making a gallon of milk.

Sorry for the rant. I feel better now though :cheers:

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Fman

:lame: This thinking is what's lame to me. We love to attack the oil companies for making money, but then we just drool over how great a company like Apple is when they make huge profits (20.7% net profit margin). Let's not forget the huge investments oil companies make to post their earnings, and they remain in one of the most heavily regulated and taxed industries in our country. If you look at profit margins, oil companies are in the middle of the pack as an industry, posting a 13.6% net profit margin in the last quarter according to Yahoo Finance. Yahoo Finance

I never understand why people don't complain about milk prices. A gallon of milk usually costs more than a gallon of gas around here, and I can assure you the process of making a gallon of gasoline is much more difficult and costly than making a gallon of milk.

Sorry for the rant. I feel better now though :cheers:

How many gallons of milk do you buy a week compared to gallons of fuel? This is why people dont care about milk prices.

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hethj7

Yea, I get that and I suppose economies of scale is why gas can be cheaper as well. My wife and I just always find it ironic :)

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Pistol Pete

next time we goto war again we can actually secure some oil with it!!! Whats up with that? How did we help and protect all these countries with massive oil production and get nothing in return?

Amen to that!

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JTech

How many gallons of milk do you buy a week compared to gallons of fuel? This is why people dont care about milk prices.

The cost of food, millk included will go way up if the fuel prices double as some suggest. Part of it will be from the increased cost of transportation for farm to processing to the store. The other part, and the one that gets lost is how the market reacts to those price increases with alternative ways of producing fuel. IE: Corn which according to the dairy farmer I spoke with on Thursday said is increasing their cost of doing business. The feed for the Cow to make the milk has to come from somewhere, and most if not all of our milk supply is corn fed. As demand for corn starts to increase for other purposes (E:85 fuel) the price of corn goes up, and that increased cost is passed on to the consumer in higher food prices. It is a vicious cycle that oddly enough is controlled by the price crude oil.

This is why I said before that our Government will intervine and make sure this does not happen. Check out this chart: Gas Prices Most of us here remember the oil shortage in the late 70's that happened because of the Iran/Iraq war. The graph points out the US price controls during the embargo in the early 70's and the late 70's. Currently the US does not use 15% of the oil we produce here in the USA according to a recent report. That combined with our oil reserves (barrels, not in the ground) will allow the US in the short term to hold prices down if the conflict ever gets to a boiling point.

Oil Consumption - Barrels per day:

1 United States 18,690,000

2 China 8,200,000

3 Japan 4,363,000

4 India 2,980,000

5 Russia 2,740,000

6 Brazil 2,460,000

7 Germany 2,437,000

8 Saudi Arabia 2,430,000

9 Korea, South 2,185,000

10 Canada 2,151,000

11 Mexico 2,078,000

12 France 1,875,000

13 Iran 1,809,000

Do you really think that #1-12 are going to let #13 control things? Iran is supposedly #4 on the list of exporters per day which will have an effect on supply, but 6-10 are within 700,000 barrels per day. Should Isreal start something, I would bet that #1-12 will step in quickly to make sure oil production doesn't change much.

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NvBoarder

Ok I admit I didn't read every post, but if anything like this happens and they hold up on their threats of an attack on US soil, boating and gas prices won't matter. What will is the immediate threat standing in front of us. In my opinion there is nothing I can do at this point but hope and plan my summer as usual, hype only makes things worst. At this point, I am more concerned with WHERE IS THE SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! At this rate there will be no boating because there is no water in the lakes.

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