Used Boat Prices Falling

[dwc032]

3 hours ago, Pnwrider said:

I have a feeling it will eventually start affecting the pnw dealers but clearly we aren’t there yet. RV sales are though. Starting to see close to 50% off msrp on leftover ‘22 models. I had to buy my truck from the Midwest a few weeks ago because all the dealers here are still minimum 10k over sticker. 

Can you give me your best guess for a time line?  I mean I'd love to see Active Water Sports drop their prices, but they are literally asking 50-75k more.  Tommy's is offering brand new 2022 23 MXZ's for 140k!!!  That is a crazy good deal! 

[jjackkrash]

I got a quote on a for-order ski boat that was within spitting distance of double what I paid for the exact same boat the first summer of Covid.  I can't repeat it without risking an aneurysm.  

[Stevo]

1 hour ago, dwc032 said:

Can you give me your best guess for a time line?  I mean I'd love to see Active Water Sports drop their prices, but they are literally asking 50-75k more.  Tommy's is offering brand new 2022 23 MXZ's for 140k!!!  That is a crazy good deal! 

Tommy’s has a bunch of floor boat’s eating into their bottom line so they are probably willing to deal a bit more than AWS, 

@Slayer didn’t you say Tommy’s in your neck of the woods has close to 60 boats between 2 locations (just Malibu/axis) 

 

[dwc032]

25 minutes ago, Stevo said:

Tommy’s has a bunch of floor boat’s eating into their bottom line so they are probably willing to deal a bit more than AWS, 

@Slayer didn’t you say Tommy’s in your neck of the woods has close to 60 boats between 2 locations (just Malibu/axis) 

 

Yeah I saw a 2022 brand new M240 at Tommy's in Henderson Nevada for 203K. Thats my dream boat, but no way I'd spend anywhere near that. 

[surfdude]

If you’re interested in a good price on a 2023 check out Launch watersports  in Montana. A great selection in every model, priced right!

[The Hulk]

6 hours ago, Stevo said:

Tommy’s has a bunch of floor boat’s eating into their bottom line so they are probably willing to deal a bit more than AWS, 

@Slayer

More Than a bunch. Hopefully they can weather the storm 

 

 

[ahopkins22LSV]

6 hours ago, The Hulk said:

More Than a bunch. Hopefully they can weather the storm 

 

 

Right now I see they have 1 new 2022 Malibu, no Axis. 
 

2023: Axis 15, Malibu 27

So 43. Idk if I’d call that a bunch or crazy high for a dealer of their size and volume. They have been moving quite a few this fall from what I’ve seen this year too. From my conversations with their sales manager they aren’t in any kind of panic mode and they are still planning a big boat show season and setups.
 

You guys spelling out this doomsday storm, what was the “standard” for previous model year pre Covid? Can anyone answer that? With data and no assumptions?

[justgary]

2 hours ago, ahopkins22LSV said:

With data and no assumptions?

Wouldn't that violate the TOU?

[Stevo]

2 hours ago, ahopkins22LSV said:

Right now I see they have 1 new 2022 Malibu, no Axis. 
 

2023: Axis 15, Malibu 27

So 43. Idk if I’d call that a bunch or crazy high for a dealer of their size and volume. They have been moving quite a few this fall from what I’ve seen this year too. From my conversations with their sales manager they aren’t in any kind of panic mode and they are still planning a big boat show season and setups.
 

You guys spelling out this doomsday storm, what was the “standard” for previous model year pre Covid? Can anyone answer that? With data and no assumptions?

 

16 hours ago, Stevo said:

Tommy’s has a bunch of floor boat’s eating into their bottom line so they are probably willing to deal a bit more than AWS, 

@Slayer didn’t you say Tommy’s in your neck of the woods has close to 60 boats between 2 locations (just Malibu/axis) 

 

 

the numbers I alluded too was from the 2 Michigan locations and turns out those numbers were low , 100 Malibu/Axis . 

From the Tommy’s website inventory lists

Detroit -35 Malibu and 17axis

GR -33 Malibu -14 axis

 

[shawndoggy]

20 hours ago, The Hulk said:

This about sums up inflation!

Boats probably blow this outta the water

But hey looking back further to 50yrs then moving forward  +50 yrs from now, the AVERAGE home price will only be 6.3M and the average car will only be $850k.

Doesn't seem so bad right? I mean wages are totally outpacing inflation 🤔🤔🤔 

So who knows maybe used boat prices will stay higher than normal for longer but are they? When u Factor in inflation? 🤔

 😢

sweet median income data!  I mean if it's in a jpg it must be accurate right?  Strangely, the census bureau disagrees...

https://www.justice.gov/ust/eo/bapcpa/20230401/bci_data/median_income_table.htm

 

[ahopkins22LSV]

33 minutes ago, Stevo said:

 

 

the numbers I alluded too was from the 2 Michigan locations and turns out those numbers were low , 100 Malibu/Axis . 

From the Tommy’s website inventory lists

Detroit -35 Malibu and 17axis

GR -33 Malibu -14 axis

 

I mean, Tommy’s has three Michigan locations. We are a high volume market, so sure the numbers can look big. The Detroit location alone stores nearly 1000 boats each winter. Are those high inventory levels for them? I honestly do t know but to my gut, it doesn’t scream high levels. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’ve gotten more accurate information out of a 3rd grade game of telephone than this thread.

[The Hulk]

2 hours ago, shawndoggy said:

sweet median income data!  I mean if it's in a jpg it must be accurate right?  Strangely, the census bureau disagrees...

https://www.justice.gov/ust/eo/bapcpa/20230401/bci_data/median_income_table.htm

 

Data reproduced for ease....

It's interesting though that most states family of 2 only marginally makes more Than a single earner, and further its only Marginally more with 3/4 etc.. so if you assume 2 (forget kids) and divide by 2 it's very close to the jpg. essentially singles earn significantly more per person than couples/families.  I would expect that as your Life can be dedicated to work. Of course I'm somewhat of assuming the majority of people in the lower income have 2 working parents which may not always be the case of course. 

Data I provided was from the debt clock which sites The social security office data. 

The numbers get even further interesting (worse) if you exclude government employees who earn.. well.. more than they could make in the private sector..

IMO .. However you want to slice up the data there's one thing that doesn't change; wages are nowhere close to keeping up with inflation. If history tells us one thing: it will only accelerate... 

Edited December 24, 2023 by The Hulk

[shawndoggy]

 

8 hours ago, The Hulk said:

Data reproduced for ease....

It's interesting though that most states family of 2 only marginally makes more Than a single earner, and further its only Marginally more with 3/4 etc.. so if you assume 2 (forget kids) and divide by 2 it's very close to the jpg. essentially singles earn significantly more per person than couples/families.  I would expect that as your Life can be dedicated to work. Of course I'm somewhat of assuming the majority of people in the lower income have 2 working parents which may not always be the case of course. 

Data I provided was from the debt clock which sites The social security office data. 

The numbers get even further interesting (worse) if you exclude government employees who earn.. well.. more than they could make in the private sector..

IMO .. However you want to slice up the data there's one thing that doesn't change; wages are nowhere close to keeping up with inflation. If history tells us one thing: it will only accelerate... 

did you happen to compare those numbers to 2000 census data, though, to see if the premise of your original post (very little growth in median income) makes sense?  I mean the government was employing overpaid teachers, postal workers, prison guards, cops, firemen, and military in 2000 too right?

[The Hulk]

4 hours ago, shawndoggy said:

 

did you happen to compare those numbers to 2000 census data, though, to see if the premise of your original post (very little growth in median income) makes sense?  I mean the government was employing overpaid teachers, postal workers, prison guards, cops, firemen, and military in 2000 too right?

My point is that government jobs has been and more so recently far outpacing private sector.. also please consider that health care is about half funded by the government as well.. 

Question: How many private sector employees tax dollars does it take to pay for 1 government worker? Consider that half or less now of the working population actually pay taxes, now subtract government employees from that crowd..

Well the math... doesn't add up by any means.. thus inflation and or the devaluation of the dollar will continue to accelerate especially as the economy weakens and private sector Jobs are cut.. 

In turn boat prices along with everything else will continue to far outpace (stated) inflation rates. 

That's why I'm curious about what happens to the used boat market. Factoring in (actual) inflation changes a LOT of presumed calculations. Same as saying minimum wage in IN is still $7.25 yet you can't possibly hire anyone for that so does it matter?  The staples of minimum wage (fast food jobs) are all at 15-18/hr.

Just like saying a dealer sitting on 100 boats now vs 5-10yrs ago is the same.. the boats now cost what 2X+ on avg? Now factoring in current rates they may be 4X+ the financing cost! So comparing apples to apples it could easily be equal to them sitting on 300-400 boats from the (normal times as they say)! 

Don't kid yourself our Industry and especially wake boat market is highly panicked right now. 

 

 

[shawndoggy]

5 hours ago, The Hulk said:

My point is that government jobs has been and more so recently far outpacing private sector.. . 

Wait I thought your point was that there has been very little growth in median income in the last 23 years?

You know your graph doesn’t say anything about actual wages, right?  Just which sectors did the most hiring in the first 6 months of 2023? And there is probably a reason for that, given that at the end of 2022 there were still fewer public sector employees than there were pre-pandemic.  Here’s the 2022 chart for comparison:

 

 

[The Hulk]

Yes that was my point however you slice it up you MUST Adjust for inflation and that's where things get depressing 

real household wealth is nowhere close to keeping up and IMO never will. Inflation is a TAX that hits folks who don't own liquid assets.  History tells us all BUT the top % only get worse off. 

Take this forum as example. A bunch of top % folks and I'm still willing to bet the majority if not most everybody on here wages has not kept up with inflation in comparison to wake boat costs in the past 5-7 years. If so that would mean they are at least making more than Double now? If so congrats hats off!  

 

[CaptainMorgan]

19 hours ago, The Hulk said:

The numbers get even further interesting (worse) if you exclude government employees who earn.. well.. more than they could make in the private sector..

6 hours ago, The Hulk said:

Question: How many private sector employees tax dollars does it take to pay for 1 government worker? Consider that half or less now of the working population actually pay taxes, now subtract government employees from that crowd..

Be nice to your gov employees - some of us (like yours truly) are active supporters of the boat industry!   If I got overpaid a little more then I could upgrade from an axis to a Malibu LOL

[justgary]

I don't think it is fair to compare a wakeboat from 5 to 10 years ago with one of today.  The ones today are larger and use more materials and labor to build.  Now, if you want to compare the price of a Response, that might be fair.

[spikew919]

Got a call from a banker friend at Wells Fargo last week, to get numbers of some other acquaintances. Seems the construction and logging companies are fixing to have a bad day after the January 1st.  He has a list of 900+ names that they are going to start repoing equipment due to default.  Averaging 6 units per company.  That’s significant as it’s just the south eastern area. 
 

all is fine tho.   Carry on 🤷🏻‍♂️

Edited December 25, 2023 by spikew919

[The Hulk]

just spoke to two different construction companies and oddly both said steel is going up 10-20% early next year.. they also said they locked in on concrete which is going to go up 15% as well.. 

I thought it was odd given the fact the construction projects have fallen rapidly and most everything in the works was already on contract a year ago and at year ago rates.. his answer was the main hikes are due to labor increases and concrete is highly labor intensive which made sense. 

Glass company said similar situation

Basically inflation is still raging on due to rising labor costs which are now working through the system. I'm wondering how labor cost will impact boats with diminishing demand 

Somehow I keep coming back to that odd word of Stagflation 

Edited December 26, 2023 by The Hulk

[Sparky450]

1 hour ago, The Hulk said:

just spoke to two different construction companies and oddly both said steel is going up 10-20% early next year.. they also said they locked in on concrete which is going to go up 15% as well.. 

I thought it was odd given the fact the construction projects have fallen rapidly and most everything in the works was already on contract a year ago and at year ago rates.. his answer was the main hikes are due to labor increases and concrete is highly labor intensive which made sense. 

Glass company said similar situation

Basically inflation is still raging on due to rising labor costs which are now working through the system. I'm wondering how labor cost will impact boats with diminishing demand 

Somehow I keep coming back to that odd word of Stagflation 

In California minimum wage is now $16.00/hr. Or at least as of 01-01-24 IIRC. 

Later in the year. Fast food workers minimum wage goes up to $20.00/hr. People have no clue how that effects food prices. That is yet to come. The fast food minimum wage increase will cause all wages to go up. Why would a person do a job with physical labor for basically the same wage as a fast food worker?  Fast food work is not meant to be a career, It has always been a stepping stone for people entering the work force The government seems to think fast food is a career. 

Being in the construction industry  we used to start new “green” employees at $16.00-$17.00/hr. Since Covid we have had to move that number up to $23.00+/hr. 
If the person is drug free, willing to actually work, clean & presentable, and has a driving record my insurance will except. That number goes up. 

So labor costs in construction are also up right at 50% if you can find any new hires. 
I am non union and my employees are making union wages  

I have had 2 employees leave to the union, both have requested employment because the union does not keep them busy  

Concrete day workers (finishers/laborers) used to be $150.00-$250/per day. Now I have heard no less than $300.00. 
 

[hethj7]

Just went looking for data I had posted once before on Malibu pre-covid vs post covid production numbers and instead ran across the similar thread on these topics in spring of 2022.   I'm not sure how we even made it to December of 2023 given the predictions made at that time .  

Sorry @The Hulk as I do love your insights, etc.  But at that time you also spiked the ball on your "RV news long ago" being true, Q2 2022 and forward earnings reports being murdered, extended supply chain times to continue, all your insiders had grim outlooks, a crash had to happen, diesel shortages coming, $6/gallon gas predicted, energy crisis, etc.   

Yes, the sky may fall one day.   No, no one on here seems to know if or when.  Go buy the 26 LSV and enjoy your time on the water!

Sure, inflation is real and yes, the average family's buying power is diminished.  Certain industries are worried, etc.   I think everyone can see boat prices falling and concerns are out there, but I personally think all these crash scenarios are over-stated.  

Edited December 27, 2023 by hethj7

[MikeR397]

8 hours ago, The Hulk said:

just spoke to two different construction companies and oddly both said steel is going up 10-20% early next year.. they also said they locked in on concrete which is going to go up 15% as well.. 

I thought it was odd given the fact the construction projects have fallen rapidly and most everything in the works was already on contract a year ago and at year ago rates.. his answer was the main hikes are due to labor increases and concrete is highly labor intensive which made sense. 

Glass company said similar situation

Basically inflation is still raging on due to rising labor costs which are now working through the system. I'm wondering how labor cost will impact boats with diminishing demand 

Somehow I keep coming back to that odd word of Stagflation 

Ya, I’m getting raped on concrete and rebar costs on a 2,000sqft addition with helical piers and a huge driveway right now. Literally double the price a few years ago. Agree on stagflation, although stonks don’t care for now. I sold all my risk assets in January of 2022, sitting in 5.25% interest accounts. Here we are 2 years later and stonks are back to where they were and yet my purchasing power is down 25-40% across the board. Sucks. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by MikeR397

[Slayer]

19 hours ago, The Hulk said:

just spoke to two different construction companies and oddly both said steel is going up 10-20% early next year.. they also said they locked in on concrete which is going to go up 15% as well.. 

I thought it was odd given the fact the construction projects have fallen rapidly and most everything in the works was already on contract a year ago and at year ago rates.. his answer was the main hikes are due to labor increases and concrete is highly labor intensive which made sense. 

Glass company said similar situation

Basically inflation is still raging on due to rising labor costs which are now working through the system. I'm wondering how labor cost will impact boats with diminishing demand 

Somehow I keep coming back to that odd word of Stagflation 

I have seen a decline in residential and commercial construction.  The higher education market is still strong, as is the health care market.  Locally, there is a $7B spend in the works with a large healthcare group.  $2.5B of the $7 has already been committed.

 

 In the markets in which I play, there has been some reduction in capacity increase projects, but there's still billions planned and I know of a few very large projects that are either just starting, or in the negotiation phase.  I don't think it's a realistic assessment to suggest all projects have fallen rapidly.  It's an inaccurate statement.

[hethj7]

You can love or hate the IRA bill, but most of those funds have yet to be spent.  There are still a LOT of projects being planned.  Although, the red tape of how to actually get permits and access to those funds remains murky and causes schedule delays often.   Part of the spend is timing - many of the funds I am familiar with are tax credits, meaning the companies are paying the capital cost of projects now/soon in order to reap the tax credits once facilities are put in operation.   

 

Per the Treasury Inspector -

As of June 30, 2023, the IRS has expended approximately $1.95 billion or 2.5 percent of its $78 billion in IRA funding.

In addition to its Fiscal Year 2023 annual appropriation of
$12.3 billion, the IRS received approximately $79.4 billion in supplemental funding when the President signed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) into law in August 2022. Approximately

$1.4 billion in IRA funding was later rescinded by Congress reducing the available IRA supplemental funding to approximately $78 billion. This supplemental funding is available through September 30, 2031.

@Sparky450 We are seeing a large draw on I&E craft.   Every project out there requires those those trades, and lots of the mega jobs require a lot of them - battery plants, data centers, etc.