Used Boat Prices Falling

[The Hulk]

1 hour ago, Pnwrider said:

I found the most Hulk chart ever. The NFIB mails out monthly surveys to small businesses. The top line of this chart is the hard data aka what they’ve actually done over the last 3 months. The bottom line is a survey of what they expect to happen over the upcoming months aka soft data. 
source: Bob Elliott (https://x.com/bobeunlimited/status/1688890756017098753?s=46&t=_dcq8C9oWwKLmRrrpkyqeA)

well optimism of future vs 3mo ago Data with the largest gap on record.. tells me things are falling off a cliff if I had to guess.. 

[eubanks]

3 hours ago, MikeR397 said:

Who the hell knows. Prices seem entirely on what discount a particular dealer wants to give. Of course Malibu won’t put even starting msrp online, let alone option prices, gasp! I’m glad car buying isn’t as opaque as boat buying. 

$175k?

[The Hulk]

just heard a certain boat dealer that typically has 100 boats on order this time of year has only 10-12, and is doing everything to reduce floor plan costs and inventory. Floor plan financing is aparently no cheap these days!  They dont want used, or trade ins and want to cut their floor plan costs anyway possible even if they dont make much on the sale they just need less inventory and cash. 

 

Seems like some deals may be on the way for next season! 

 

 

 

 

[MikeR397]

Hope so. Just got my build sheet for a new T220 and it’s $150k msrp! Seems like a lot for a “value” boat! Currently $17k in incentives, hope that gets closer to $30k for a loaded build including shop credits. 

[klntime]

42 minutes ago, MikeR397 said:

Hope so. Just got my build sheet for a new T220 and it’s $150k msrp! Seems like a lot for a “value” boat! Currently $17k in incentives, hope that gets closer to $30k for a loaded build including shop credits. 

Wow!  T220 msrp of 150K - that seems bananas to me.  Is that every option checked plus a crazy optioned out trailer?   I know I've seen many lightly used 2023's for sale with 10 - 60 hours listed around 97k-110K.   A dealer close to me is advertising 35% off currently for all remaining 2023's (that may just be on Malibu and a bit less of discount on Axis I would think)  It sure seems in many parts of the country the market for boats is softening.  I would think a really good deal is out there to be had.

[EchelonMike]

I agree with @klntime because I have been shopping for an upgrade, and I just saw an ad for a 2022 23 MXZ, new on close out, for under $150K with PTM clamping racks, M6, flip down swim step, etc.  I think almost $60K off MSRP.  I also saw a 2019 24 MXZ with M6, clamping racks, all the other surf options you want, PNP, for under $100, and a 2020 24 MXZ with triple axle trailer, same upgrades, one owner, 70 hours for $129.  The market is sliding quickly.  If you're in the market, I would be WAYYYYYYYY patient.

 

 

[MikeR397]

19 minutes ago, klntime said:

Wow!  T220 msrp of 150K - that seems bananas to me.  Is that every option checked plus a crazy optioned out trailer?   I know I've seen many lightly used 2023's for sale with 10 - 60 hours listed around 97k-110K.   A dealer close to me is advertising 35% off currently for all remaining 2023's (that may just be on Malibu and a bit less of discount on Axis I would think)  It sure seems in many parts of the country the market for boats is softening.  I would think a really good deal is out there to be had.

That's MSRP but before sales tax. Right now incentives are like $17.5k from Malibu/Axis I believe so that gets it down to $132.5k before tax. A Base T220 is now $100k, and my options total $50k. I did spec most options including the M6 engine. Some stuff I might cut, but if I'm ordering new the point is to get it exactly how I want it, otherwise I am also looking for inventory or used deals but limited in choices due to a low bridge and 32'' deep canal I'm on.

FWIW, I did mostly choose every option on this build print out b/c that the only damn way to see option prices since it seems dealers and boat manufacturers can't be bothered to display anything online and you need to go in and "develop a relationship." I will cut a few things ($5k-$7.5k or so) that I don't need. For example, $557 for underwater lighting and $299 for blue underseat lighting is gone! I'm on the lake usually 1 time at night (for our lakes fireworks) and sure has hell not paying nearly a grand for lights I'll never see in daylight. I'll start another thread to discuss some of the other options and not go too off topic here. 

If I cut $7.5k of options off with the $17.5k current incentives, that gets the price down to $125k before tax, with a 5yr warranty and guaranteed loaner boat for any warranty work (which might be a massive benefit, a buddy with a 2022 Axis just spent 7 weeks in service this summer for a speed sensor issue!). So ya, if the choice is between a 50hr 1 year old boat for $110k with an M5 and options I didn't get to pick or spending $15k more to spec it myself and have an extra year of warranty coverage, I'm still leaning toward the new 2024 order. I do hope manufacturer and dealer (pro shop) incentives get closer to $30k on a $140-$150k msrp build later this fall/early winter if showroom inventory is high and new orders are slow come November or so. 

 

[MikeR397]

1 minute ago, EchelonMike said:

I agree with @klntime because I have been shopping for an upgrade, and I just saw an ad for a 2022 23 MXZ, new on close out, for under $150K with PTM clamping racks, M6, flip down swim step, etc.  I think almost $60K off MSRP.  I also saw a 2019 24 MXZ with M6, clamping racks, all the other surf options you want, PNP, for under $100, and a 2020 24 MXZ with triple axle trailer, same upgrades, one owner, 70 hours for $129.  The market is sliding quickly.  If you're in the market, I would be WAYYYYYYYY patient.

 

 

Indeed. I want a boat by June, zero reason to order anything until at least late Fall which is when incentives for new builds is supposed to generally be greatest. St. Clair boat show is in Sept, but doubting that's enough time to see slow sales results in any incentives. Detroit boat show is early/mid January is most likely the best time to order for incentives on a 2024 order I think. I'm paying cash, so hoping the high interest rates will work in my favor -- that said, it's a double edge sword pulling six figures out of a 5.25% savings account, but I'm not getting any younger and my 3 boys are getting older!

[The Hulk]

16 hours ago, The Hulk said:

just heard a certain boat dealer that typically has 100 boats on order this time of year has only 10-12, and is doing everything to reduce floor plan costs and inventory. Floor plan financing is aparently no cheap these days!  They dont want used, or trade ins and want to cut their floor plan costs anyway possible even if they dont make much on the sale they just need less inventory and cash. 

make that 2 now of similar size.

also coinciding is dock/lift industry pre seasons fell off planet earth, many dealers have said they are going to forego preseason and just hold on to cash and pay a higher price come spring after they get a sale..  still very early though..

Used lifts, and lift repairs, upgrades have been on the uptick.. i suspect boats will be similar as folks look for a deal. 

on another note Lake homes around here in the mid-level IE fixer uppers or nice summer cottages.. have been going pretty quickly lately.. listings have been limited but they seem to be going relatively quickly ie a few days to a few weeks.. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by The Hulk

[rennis]

17 hours ago, MikeR397 said:

That's MSRP but before sales tax. Right now incentives are like $17.5k from Malibu/Axis I believe so that gets it down to $132.5k before tax. A Base T220 is now $100k, and my options total $50k. I did spec most options including the M6 engine. Some stuff I might cut, but if I'm ordering new the point is to get it exactly how I want it, otherwise I am also looking for inventory or used deals but limited in choices due to a low bridge and 32'' deep canal I'm on.

FWIW, I did mostly choose every option on this build print out b/c that the only damn way to see option prices since it seems dealers and boat manufacturers can't be bothered to display anything online and you need to go in and "develop a relationship."

 

Going in and talking to the dealer is exactly what you should do.  You might be surprised how much of a discount you'll get off that MSRP figure if you order a new T220.  I know I was. 

Edited August 18, 2023 by rennis

[IXFE]

I heard Malibu pricing for model year 2024 is UP another 10%.  I haven't seen a build sheet yet to do my own math, so don't hold me to that.  But I honestly don't understand what Malibu is thinking with a 3rd consecutive double-digit increase.  

[MikeR397]

8 hours ago, IXFE said:

I heard Malibu pricing for model year 2024 is UP another 10%.  I haven't seen a build sheet yet to do my own math, so don't hold me to that.  But I honestly don't understand what Malibu is thinking with a 3rd consecutive double-digit increase.  

Are you saying the December price increase that is coming? I have a 2023 build sheet and also a 2024 build sheet for an order I specked last month and need to double check but the 2024 numbers are around 10% higher than the 2023 numbers on everything options ect. That said, I was told the price increases are done in December or Jan for the next year and placing an order before that would avoid the next price increase. If that’s another 10% coming then that is something major to consider! 
 

these things are set to outpace tuition. $1M malibu floor price by 2040. 

Edited August 20, 2023 by MikeR397

[IXFE]

3 hours ago, MikeR397 said:

Are you saying the December price increase that is coming? I have a 2023 build sheet and also a 2024 build sheet for an order I specked last month and need to double check but the 2024 numbers are around 10% higher than the 2023 numbers on everything options ect. That said, I was told the price increases are done in December or Jan for the next year and placing an order before that would avoid the next price increase. If that’s another 10% coming then that is something major to consider! 
 

these things are set to outpace tuition. $1M malibu floor price by 2040. 

That's what I'm referring to... the increase from model year 2023 to 2024.  You just confirmed what I was told... 10%.  Thanks Malibu.  

If they do (yet another) mid-year increase in December, I may simply bow out (pun intended).  I know that sounds crazy after TWELVE Malibus in a row.  But seriously I'm at my breaking point with these boats.  I've had a really bad run of QC issues on my last four boats (like many of you) so continuing to ratchet up the price like this (completely ignoring the economic environment around us) has even ME considering the unthinkable... 

For those keeping track at home, two years ago they increased prices by 14% between MY21 and MY22.  Then last summer they jacked up the price another 8% moving to MY23.  Then they snuck in a surprise 7% mid-year increase. They applied the mid-year increase to any boat built after 1/1/23 even if you already had your order entered months before, as I did. My boat was built the first week of January, so that little surprise cost me $16K on a 26 LSV (already a ridiculously overpriced boat).  So let's call that a 15% increase last year year.  Now this 10% increase with hints of another mid-year??  Meanwhile values are plummeting and interest rates are sky high.  

MY22: 14%

MY23: 8% + 7% = 15%

MY24: 10% + ?? + ??

I feel my attention drifting to other brands / hobbies.  I know... gasp! 

 

/rant 

[oldjeep]

Well, if they are still selling what they can make - prices must be ok for someone.

[The Hulk]

8 hours ago, IXFE said:

That's what I'm referring to... the increase from model year 2023 to 2024.  You just confirmed what I was told... 10%.  Thanks Malibu.  

If they do (yet another) mid-year increase in December, I may simply bow out (pun intended).  I know that sounds crazy after TWELVE Malibus in a row.  But seriously I'm at my breaking point with these boats.  I've had a really bad run of QC issues on my last four boats (like many of you) so continuing to ratchet up the price like this (completely ignoring the economic environment around us) has even ME considering the unthinkable... 

For those keeping track at home, two years ago they increased prices by 14% between MY21 and MY22.  Then last summer they jacked up the price another 8% moving to MY23.  Then they snuck in a surprise 7% mid-year increase. They applied the mid-year increase to any boat built after 1/1/23 even if you already had your order entered months before, as I did. My boat was built the first week of January, so that little surprise cost me $16K on a 26 LSV (already a ridiculously overpriced boat).  So let's call that a 15% increase last year year.  Now this 10% increase with hints of another mid-year??  Meanwhile values are plummeting and interest rates are sky high.  

MY22: 14%

MY23: 8% + 7% = 15%

MY24: 10% + ?? + ??

I feel my attention drifting to other brands / hobbies.  I know... gasp! 

 

/rant 

basically near 40%... almost exactly in line with M2 chart!... 🤔

Edited August 21, 2023 by The Hulk

[Swatski]

which part of M2 chart?

"The M2 money supply in the United States decreased monthly between July 2022 and April 2023, after a period of sharp increase starting in February 2020. The unusually sharp increase in 2020 and 2021 was a result of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic."

While Malibu price increases are not surprising, they certainly do not predict doom in that market. I would think. 

[The Hulk]

Just referring to the roughly 40% increase in the money supply that happened In a very quick time period I've said one or two years ago on here that inflation will rise by at least that much. Some things higher + some things will take a year or two to catch up... Food as example will still continue to rise it's got a ways to go yet... Several fast food chains have all done significant price hikes over the past month along with other restaurants Just go to the grocery store A lot of things have gone up over the past few months significantly.. I use to call Starbucks (five bucks) to my wife but I now refer to it as "SevenBucks".. My Tim Hortons breakfast went from $7.25 18mo ago to now $9.75.. 

The decrease in money supply will also take some time to play out, but won't necessarily cause prices to drop IMO.. 

Takes 3 things to make anything.. Food, labor, + energy all of which still continue to increase in cost so I'm Not sure how many things are going to decrease in cost anytime soon even if M2 shrinks..

I know several businesses have been increasing pay to keep workers and $20 an hour doesn't even get somebody to show up for an interview... I can only imagine what it takes to pay somebody to build a boat these days! 

Things are starting to change so we'll see what happens but I suspect used boats are going to cause these mfgs a bigger headache in the coming years than they may be anticipating especially with 10% hikes in new.. used should hold value well with new prices going up so fast.. until enough ppl are forced to fire sale...

The majority of buyers of these toys finance them.. rates are getting painful for Toys.. 

On the other hand with such increases Malibu is quickly loosing it's "bang for the buck" appeal.. I'll have to compare prices to Nautique this boat show season as it "seems"  they are lessoning the gap difference % but I'd like to know for sure.. 

 

[IXFE]

9 hours ago, oldjeep said:

Well, if they are still selling what they can make - prices must be ok for someone.

Gee, thanks for the Econ lesson, professor. 

[teamerickson]

20 hours ago, IXFE said:

If they do (yet another) mid-year increase in December, I may simply bow out (pun intended).  I know that sounds crazy after TWELVE Malibus in a row.  But seriously I'm at my breaking point with these boats.  I've had a really bad run of QC issues on my last four boats (like many of you) so continuing to ratchet up the price like this (completely ignoring the economic environment around us) has even ME considering the unthinkable... 

JACK!!!!!!!

[spikew919]

Unless another round of lockdowns come in next few months. It’s about to be a buyers market. Been watching deep sea fishing boats that were  1 to 1.4 million now selling in the 800k range. Prices are sliding fast in that market. And people that just bought new are not smiling anymore. It’s only a matter of time 

[The Hulk]

11 hours ago, teamerickson said:

JACK!!!!!!!

Isn't he secretly trying to exit? 

[MikeR397]

Related note, I get a new seadoo rxpx every 2yr or ~100hrs or so (else I seem to blow the motor for one reason or another) and depending on warranty offerings (which now are a standard s*** 2yr vs it was always 4yr before). 6 years ago it was $12k. Now, it’s $20k after freight for essentially the same ski. Granted they did an intake and slight rpm boost to get to 325hp stock for 2024, but I’m not so sure how much longer they are gonna get away with 15% price increases year after year. At some point, people are gonna say “you want how much for a jetski?” 

Edited August 22, 2023 by MikeR397

[dshack]

When you could upgrade for relatively little out of pocket each year or 2, it made sense. But there is a big and growing gap between used and new boat prices. But a small and shrinking gap in terms of features.

 

I just don't see the innovation / improvement with surf boats post ~2019ish. It is hard for me to justify shelling out nearly $100k to swap my 2019 22 LSV to a 2024. Only meaningful changes in my book are the swim step and walk thru transom, neither which really move the needle for me. And I think its similar across other brands. Marketing is going to have their work cut out for them.

 

 

[The Hulk]

4 hours ago, dshack said:

When you could upgrade for relatively little out of pocket each year or 2, it made sense. But there is a big and growing gap between used and new boat prices. But a small and shrinking gap in terms of features.

 

I just don't see the innovation / improvement with surf boats post ~2019ish. It is hard for me to justify shelling out nearly $100k to swap my 2019 22 LSV to a 2024. Only meaningful changes in my book are the swim step and walk thru transom, neither which really move the needle for me. And I think its similar across other brands. Marketing is going to have their work cut out for them.

It's getting harder and harder to justify NEW vs used. Dialed in and arguably better QC on slightly used vs new for at most marginal difference that can be fixed with a little extra ballast upgrades, people, or an extra sac. 

 

I think 2024 hikes will be go down as the straw that broke the 🐪 back.. especially considering what's happening in the general economy..Add in the crazy fact I hardly see anyone surfing on the lake anymore. Maybe they can't afford the gas? 😂

All The (wake boats) that previously trailered to the lake are a rare sight anymore. Tritoons continue to dominate new sales to (lakefront owners) and is basically the majority of all new boats hitting the water around here. If I had to guess we have crossed the peak.. but I've been wrong before... 

There is a reason many high level execs are trying to escape the rec industry now. 

[oldjeep]

2 hours ago, The Hulk said:

All The (wake boats) that previously trailered to the lake are a rare sight anymore. Tritoons continue to dominate new sales to (lakefront owners) and is basically the majority of all new boats hitting the water around here. If I had to guess we have crossed the peak.. but I've been wrong before... 

 

Around here, the local launch is still 25% wake boat trailers.  Number of open parking spots has been higher this year - even Saturday when it was 90.