Used Boat Prices Falling

[footndale]

22 minutes ago, UWSkier said:

I bought 4 entrees of fresh seafood in Milwaukee on Sunday for 62 dollars and it was excellent quality and huge portions. I am back in the Midwest for a few weeks and can't believe how much cheaper things are here than AZ. 

Fresh seafood on a Sunday in Milw? Did you forget, we call that carp.

[Hemmy]

22 minutes ago, footndale said:

Fresh seafood on a Sunday in Milw? Did you forget, we call that carp.

Don't forget you are on the side of Lake Michigan that gets the smelt, or at least used to.

[rennis]

39 minutes ago, oldjeep said:

How much is electricity there? .17 a KWh here after you lump in all the fees and adjustments on the bill.  (Bill says .10 a KWh but then there are a bunch of surcharges on top of that)

I'd be concerned about a lot of the electricity out west if those reservoirs keep drying up.

 

You can get electricity as cheap as <.05 a KWh in some of our recreation-friendly counties up here in WA.  Grant County is .0454/KWh for residential.  Far less for commercial.  Which is why so many data centers are built up here.  Wouldn't be surprised if this conversation is stored on a server in Quincy, WA.  The dams on Columbia River aren't as susceptible to reservoir issues as some of our neighbors to the south and south east. 

[wakesonthesnake]

1 hour ago, oldjeep said:

How much is electricity there? .17 a KWh here after you lump in all the fees and adjustments on the bill.  (Bill says .10 a KWh but then there are a bunch of surcharges on top of that)

I'd be concerned about a lot of the electricity out west if those reservoirs keep drying up.

 

Within a stones throw I can hit 1000+ wind turbines, 20 dams and one nuclear reactor.  The Snake and Columbia rivers are not in the same situation as the Colorado and other southern rivers and reservoirs as rennis stated. 

[JeffC]

On 7/31/2022 at 4:28 PM, skurfer said:

Will new prices ever go back down tho?

When dealers start carrying inventory, not a moment before :-)    Malibu (and all the brands) will start pushing inventory out to the dealers when the custom order backlog evaporates (and it will).   Dealers will have to make offers for new more attractive to keep falling used prices from eating up their new sales prices. 

Not on boats, but I lived this crap when I was in high tech.   It was murderers row, especially when a market space went flat, and all of the competition was fighting for a contracting market...

 

[Leftlane]

My lake in central TX is still jammed and gas on the water is $8.69 a gallon - and plenty of people are still filling up there.  I am lugging cans back and forth to pay $4.15 a gallon instead, but still much higher than last year.  
 

My dealer offered me more than I paid for my boat when I was in for service, but I don’t want to cough up for a new boat.  I’m guessing full blown recession where the job market starts to deteriorate will be the beginning of pricing weakness - right now it hasn’t inflicted a ton of pain except in higher costs, of which some can be avoided by not using your toys.  After a while folks will get tired of paying up to not use stuff and supply will increase, lowering prices on used boats.  
 

[majr808]

I have seen a handful of the same boats for sale all summer in my area, California.. 4-6 months on the market. Some used boats have appeared with very attractive pricing and have sold. I think prices are dropping on used. A friend of mine wants to sell his boat due to the low water at his lake where he has a slip.

[electricjohn]

Besides boats, I'm curious of how waterfront property values will do.  By me the realtor has to put a sign up on the property now, whereas prior, there was a waiting list.

[RCorsa]

Depends on the area regarding real estate.  In areas where people carry mortgages it’s dropping but much of the high end waterfront real estate market people are paying cash so they aren’t affected by the rising rates.   Boat prices will also be affected by rising rates for those people that take out boat loans. 

[Chappy]

Just sold my boat and located in the PNW, I have seen a slight drop in the last month or two and the frenzy has subsided.  Sold boat for about $4k less than I paid for it July of 2018, which is still great but it took 3 weeks. I think buyers are waiting at the moment.  If I would have listed it in April or May I likely would have made $10-15k and it would have sold faster.

Edited August 3, 2022 by Chappy

[The Hulk]

10 hours ago, electricjohn said:

Besides boats, I'm curious of how waterfront property values will do.  By me the realtor has to put a sign up on the property now, whereas prior, there was a waiting list.

All notifications are price drops these days on my Zillow searches.. granted overpriced and those folks selling missed the boat .. interest rates are double so are payments... i don't think we'll see a huge drop in prices but the crazy overpaying will stop.. there not making anymore waterfront... so it's a limited commodity for the rich and famous these days... 

Weve been in a recession already .. look at RV layoffs that i mentioned long ago..  boats are slowly following.. we brought/pulled 3-4+yrs demand forward the past few years so it will likely slow the next few.. 

Steel and scrap is dropping like a rock, home starts fell off the cliff... The expensive food is still in the ground.. war hasn't ended.. energy is still in shortages. Labor participation is still low.

The only thing that's changed is the definition of "recession" 

 

 

[mxmark4]

1 hour ago, The Hulk said:

All notifications are price drops these days on my Zillow searches.. granted overpriced and those folks selling missed the boat .. interest rates are double so are payments... i don't think we'll see a huge drop in prices but the crazy overpaying will stop.. there not making anymore waterfront... so it's a limited commodity for the rich and famous these days... 

Weve been in a recession already .. look at RV layoffs that i mentioned long ago..  boats are slowly following.. we brought/pulled 3-4+yrs demand forward the past few years so it will likely slow the next few.. 

Steel and scrap is dropping like a rock, home starts fell off the cliff... The expensive food is still in the ground.. war hasn't ended.. energy is still in shortages. Labor participation is still low.

The only thing that's changed is the definition of "recession" 

 

 

Those arent layoffs Hulk those are hiring slowdowns according to the gov!

[Gene3x]

My dealer is saying that more people are starting to bring in boats to put up for sale on consignment than he has seen in a long time.  

[The Hulk]

10 hours ago, Gene3x said:

My dealer is saying that more people are starting to bring in boats to put up for sale on consignment than he has seen in a long time.  

Deals on barely used next year! (Sorry not used. Government terminology. "broken in") 

Edited August 4, 2022 by The Hulk

[shawndoggy]

24 minutes ago, The Hulk said:

Deals on barely used next year! (Sorry not used. Government terminology. "broken in") 

beta-tested?  De-bugged?

[OtherBoatisaCessna]

When do used boats typically start piling up on the market?  After Labor Day?  I was expecting to see tons of used boats hitting the market by now and that’s just not happening yet in the west (as of the 16th of August).  We sold our old boat at the end of July to try to get ahead of what I thought for sure would be a glut of used boats hitting the market, and that has not yet materialized.  Sad for me, because as a consequence, we’ve been boatless. 

[NWBU]

43 minutes ago, OtherBoatisaCessna said:

When do used boats typically start piling up on the market?  After Labor Day?  I was expecting to see tons of used boats hitting the market by now and that’s just not happening yet in the west (as of the 16th of August).  We sold our old boat at the end of July to try to get ahead of what I thought for sure would be a glut of used boats hitting the market, and that has not yet materialized.  Sad for me, because as a consequence, we’ve been boatless. 

Boats tend to sell quickly through late September in the PNW. I generally sell my boat each fall and I’m always shocked how much interest I get on Labor Day itself, and the week after Labor Day (even pre-Covid). 

After Labor Day, it’s Cirrus season for me…

[rennis]

11 hours ago, OtherBoatisaCessna said:

When do used boats typically start piling up on the market?  After Labor Day?  I was expecting to see tons of used boats hitting the market by now and that’s just not happening yet in the west (as of the 16th of August).  We sold our old boat at the end of July to try to get ahead of what I thought for sure would be a glut of used boats hitting the market, and that has not yet materialized.  Sad for me, because as a consequence, we’ve been boatless. 

I don't think you'll see a "ton" of used boats hitting the market or a glut.  Maybe more this year than the last two years, but last year there were not many good used boats for sale on the market at all in the 2nd half of 2021.  There were a small number of overpriced boats that sat unsold for months but that was about it.  Most families who buy these toys intend to hang onto them for a good long while.  

FWIW we bought our first boat in the midst of the Great Recession and it was slim pickings for good used boats back then too. There were not as many fire sales as you'd have thought. We had to be super patient to find what we wanted.  :shrug: 

[hethj7]

Does anyone have production numbers for wakeboats?   My theory is due to various issues the total number of boats produced was about the same as pre-Covid, and those would sell in normal market times.  The last year pushed prices up due to demand, but if supply remained flat there may not be a glut of used boats coming - the normal allotment was still sold, just at elevated prices.  And therefore the number of used boats coming may look “normal” too.  

[shawndoggy]

26 minutes ago, hethj7 said:

Does anyone have production numbers for wakeboats?   My theory is due to various issues the total number of boats produced was about the same as pre-Covid, and those would sell in normal market times.  The last year pushed prices up due to demand, but if supply remained flat there may not be a glut of used boats coming - the normal allotment was still sold, just at elevated prices.  And therefore the number of used boats coming may look “normal” too.  

I just did a quick look at the last MBUU 10-Q ( @IXFE we really need a "by the numbers" update), and it looks like at least comparing the last 6 months of 2020 to the last six months of 2021, your suspicions are borne out.    A few more boats in last six months of 21 than 20 (I already closed it, but I think it was 78 more malibus in that period than in 20), but 20 should've been a slightly harder year to produce than 21, right?

So one would assume that 20 probably wasn't much ahead of 19 in production either because supply chain blah blah blah.

So I'd agree that my only mildly informed view would be he number of boats produced has stayed pretty steady.  So too many dollars competing for too few boats means that while PRICES did shoot up.  Cooling economy / declining pandemic FOMO / etc are already (anecdotally) resulting in reduced/more normal demand and pricing.  

Seems like as true sales prices on new retail boats start to decline/normalize a little, that will push the used market down correspondingly.  Big losers are probably those who paid full retail for a 22 after the price increase, once they are competing with easily available 23s with historically competitive discounts?  But only if the 22 owners sell, and not many of those folks are selling right now, so one would think that the market will likely absorb that shock pretty well.  Doesn't seem like an 08-09 "cheap toys everywhere" used market free for all, yet.

Edited August 18, 2022 by shawndoggy

[hethj7]

MBUU units sold are shown below - I believe all these include Malibu, Axis, Cobalt, and Pursuit with them all being under the MBUU banner, but I'm not 100% certain.  And Maverick was acquired Dec. of 2020 and the best info I can find is they contributed 932 unit sales in 2021 (I'm not sure if units were prorated given FY ends in June I think).  

FY 2019 - 7,362

FY 2020 - 6444

FY 2021 - 8185

FY 2022 - 9255

From FY 2022 results -

Unit volumes attributable to our Malibu segment increased 332 units for fiscal year 2022 compared to fiscal year 2021. 

Saltwater Fishing segment Unit volumes increased 607 units for fiscal year 2022 compared to fiscal year 2021. (Maverick)

Unit volumes attributable to Cobalt increased 131 units for fiscal year 2022 compared to fiscal year 2021. 

Anyways, I think my theory is holding up at least based on MBUU - wakeboat production didn't/couldn't skyrocket to keep up with demand, so while prices may fall some, I don't foresee a crash as units available will more match traditional demand levels.   

[NWBU]

I’m hearing that boats are still selling quickly locally, although a bit slower than Covid levels. My M220 sold quickly too. 

RV sales though, in the words of a buddy in the business, have come to a screeching halt.

[Hemmy]

18 hours ago, NWBU said:

I’m hearing that boats are still selling quickly locally, although a bit slower than Covid levels. My M220 sold quickly too. 

RV sales though, in the words of a buddy in the business, have come to a screeching halt.

July wholesale shipments were down 33% from July 21.

Manufacturer production is bad. I am getting production schedule changes daily from customers, sometimes multiple times a day from the same customers. The RV manufacturers already have multiple week long shutdowns scheduled in the next couple months.

[shawndoggy]

17 minutes ago, Hemmy said:

July wholesale shipments were down 33% from July 21.

Manufacturer production is bad. I am getting production schedule changes daily from customers, sometimes multiple times a day from the same customers. The RV manufacturers already have multiple week long shutdowns scheduled in the next couple months.

Curious how the RV manufacturers' production numbers looked 2019-20-21-22?  Was there a big spike in production in 20 and 21 or was the actual number of units still kept down because of supply-chain, and what not?

 

[Hemmy]

18 hours ago, shawndoggy said:

Curious how the RV manufacturers' production numbers looked 2019-20-21-22?  Was there a big spike in production in 20 and 21 or was the actual number of units still kept down because of supply-chain, and what not?

 

The production increases were most likely unchanged by any supply chain issues.  They kept building units whether they had parts or not.  Their yards were full of unfinished units.  What they actually got out the door was lower than what they could have shipped.  It was hard to believe that as many units as they were building, retail was actually outpacing production during the height of the pandemic boom.
Now there are still a lot of units sitting in the manufacturers yards that have stop ship labels on them waiting on parts, but also because they now have a surplus which is really cutting back production.
There are several new product shows over the next few weeks and sometimes in the past (normal non Covid years) this would boost sales as dealers were waiting for the model changes.  We are not banking on that too much this time around.

2019 = 406,070
2020 = 430,412
2021 = 600,240