Used Boat Prices Falling

[Bluefishcay]

Our previous house sold for 3x what we paid 25 years ago.  We were able to roll that into a new home in a more desirable location.   In the end we are into our current house for 1/3 it’s value.   Our household income doubled in those same 25 years, so housing is outpacing wage growth.  
 

Boats have really outpaced wage growth.  Used to be a boat was about the price of a nicer car.  Now it’s 2-3x that.  

[Woodski]

In those states that cap property tax rate increases, typically well below the housing market increase, the annual outlay to maintain a property is more manageable thus making that property financially attractive.  Good chance the value at sale - expenses will exceed ones investment - rent expenses.  That is unless your 401k is all based on lottery tickets:-)

[spikew919]

A little food for thought comparing wage to home prices during Great Depression and today. 

[mxmark4]

Tommys sent me an email with 250 plus boats they need gone last year. Lots of 23s in there. Still not impressed with the prices they are asking for any of them. But then seeing some of these boat show prices makes Tommys prices seem like a good deal. Its like the 30 dollar cheeseburger on the steakhouse menu. Makes you feel better about the 60 dollar steak. 

[The Hulk]

17 minutes ago, spikew919 said:

A little food for thought comparing wage to home prices during Great Depression and today. 

Well compared to the rest of the world we're way cheaper in that ratio..

Considering much of the world is 20-40:1 we have a long way to go.. 

Housing is an excellent hedge, although location, location.. and.. location matter..

 

Boats...did I mention it's bad out there?

 

 

[The Hulk]

17 minutes ago, mxmark4 said:

Tommys sent me an email with 250 plus boats they need gone last year. Lots of 23s in there. Still not impressed with the prices they are asking for any of them. But then seeing some of these boat show prices makes Tommys prices seem like a good deal. Its like the 30 dollar cheeseburger on the steakhouse menu. Makes you feel better about the 60 dollar steak. 

Only 250? 

[Woodski]

My conclusion, given the difference in what constitutes a home these days (much more than basic shelter), people are much more comfortable with much higher debt ratios.

[UWSkier]

54 minutes ago, Woodski said:

My conclusion, given the difference in what constitutes a home these days (much more than basic shelter), people are much more comfortable with much higher debt ratios.

That was my thought as well.  My garage is bigger than the house my dad was raised in, and my house is nothing special.

[spikew919]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2fslp0PaPS/?igsh=MTA2aXozMW8xdnNtNg==

[dshack]

9 hours ago, Woodski said:

My conclusion, given the difference in what constitutes a home these days (much more than basic shelter), people are much more comfortable with much higher debt ratios.

Inflation aside, debt ratios can definitely be misleading. It's a big difference if you make $100k a year and spend $50k on housing (leaving $50k leftover), versus if you make $200k+ a year and spend $100k on housing (leaving $100k+ leftover).

 

Here in Utah, I wonder how much of our massive property value increase over the last decade+ is the transition from a predominantly 1 income mormon household to a dual income CA transplant household. There's just a lot more income that can be spent on housing and still have enough leftover to live a nice lifestyle. Ditto for owning (financing?) a $200k boat!

[dizzygti]

22 hours ago, Woodski said:

My conclusion, given the difference in what constitutes a home these days (much more than basic shelter), people are much more comfortable with much higher debt ratios.

We are DINK's, bought our home in 2018, and our only debt is the house and boat.   I'm 8 months into a 20 year note, but will refinance in a few months and have ~1/3 of the initial loan left to payoff.   The house has basically doubled in value, and I'm in a 2.875% note on it, so not going anywhere any time soon.   My main goal is paying off the boat and saving saving savings.    I'm a small fish compared to some of you guys in here, but no, I'm not comfortable with much higher debt ratios.  

[oldjeep]

1 minute ago, dizzygti said:

We are DINK's

Admitting it is the first step

[dizzygti]

Just now, oldjeep said:

Admitting it is the first step

Not ashamed.  

[oldjeep]

7 minutes ago, dizzygti said:

Not ashamed.  

You might not be old enough to know what that meant when I was a kid

 

dink 2 (dĭngk)

n.
Slang

A stupid, annoying, or contemptible person.

[Probably partly back-formation from DINKY and partly back-formation from earlier slang dinkus, p****, idiot, alteration of DINGUS.]

The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition copyright ©2022 by HarperCollins Publishers. All rights reserved.

[dizzygti]

4 minutes ago, oldjeep said:

You might not be old enough to know what that meant when I was a kid

 

dink 2 (dĭngk)

n.
Slang

A stupid, annoying, or contemptible person.

[Probably partly back-formation from DINKY and partly back-formation from earlier slang dinkus, p****, idiot, alteration of DINGUS.]

The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition copyright ©2022 by HarperCollins Publishers. All rights reserved.

"Dingus" was a word my dad used often.   So are you too old to know what it means now?   

[Nick55]

You guys are funny.  I heard the term from a friend when I bought another flashy car shortly after getting married. My friends commented that we were living life as DINKs, and I was like “WTH”

[ChadFulton]

I guess that makes my wife and I SIFKs? (Single Income Four Kids) ... hence the 23 y/o boat ;-)

[Jhucke]

Classic humble brags 

[Woodski]

@dizzygti - just think about how much adjustable ballast you’d have with a few additional carbon units  running around 😂

[dizzygti]

35 minutes ago, Woodski said:

@dizzygti - just think about how much adjustable ballast you’d have with a few additional carbon units  running around 😂

Then the "fuel and incidentals" bill goes up proportionally.  

[justgary]

18 hours ago, dizzygti said:

Then the "fuel and incidentals" bill goes up proportionally.  

No, you get a multi-unit discount starting with the second one.  The discount does end when they turn 16, though.

[dizzygti]

12 minutes ago, justgary said:

No, you get a multi-unit discount starting with the second one.  The discount does end when they turn 16, though.

The bills don't though!  

[dizzygti]

After catching up on the MBUU thread, I looked through quarterly results only focusing on unit volume.   We can look at margins and costs and all the rest, but number of boats made/sold tells me all I need to know, and they don't split margin or sales by Malibu vs Axis anymore either way.   It looks like early 2023 was the high water mark as sales dropped a little for Q1 for 2020 and a lot for Q2, but rebounded strongly in 2021 (as we all know, but 2021 is where sales really took off) and kept increasing through first half of 2023.  They increased incrementally each quarter (over same quarter previous year, not the literal previous quarter) UNTIL Q3 2023 (that Malibu calls Q1, I'm calling things what they are off the calendar, not Malibu's shifted quarters).   Q3 2023 was below Q3 2019 and barely above Q3 2020.  Q4 2023 was well below Q4 2020, 2019, and 2018 numbers.   I'm not quite familiar with seasonal trends of the industry and the impact on these numbers, so comparing to previous year same quarter makes the most sense to me, with the obvious drop Q2 in 2020 due to Covid lockdowns and uncertainty.   High water mark was Q1 of 2023, with 2637 boats sold.   Based on these numbers and seeing the current economy/interest rates/fear of recession, the bottom has already fallen out.  

      2023     2022     2021      2020    2019     2018

Q1  2637    2562      2453     1796     2093    2094

Q2  2550    2596      1237      1117      1992     1708

Q3  1698    2237      2024     1635     1727     1516

Q4  1373    2439      2073      1743    1804     1760

 

Numbers for Q1 2024 ending 3/31 and reported out late April/early May will be VERY telling.   Again, not so much in the overall profitability of Malibu, but an indicator of where this "ship" is headed.  

 

[Sixer]

Wow!  Good chart @dizzygti.  Definitely be interesting to see the next chapter of this.....

[redrooster]

Damn that's scary.  Like most manufacturers  q1 was probably filling back orders from previous years.  Then down the tube.