Used Boat Prices Falling

[The Hulk]

spoke with a controller working at a decent sized boat manufacturer.. sales have fallen significantly. They are starting one week shutdowns randomly in hopes of hourly  people leaving from not having enough hours.. They are preparing for the next stages... layoffs.

a few of their finance people have jumped ship over past few months... just like at Malibu... I don't think any seasoned CFOs or head controller types want to tarnish their resume going through whats happening/coming.. 

Used boats continue to drop around here.. even lake houses (while still few) on market are not moving well either..

cheap money days are over for now

 

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by The Hulk

[sidekicknicholas]

On 6/4/2023 at 12:32 PM, The Hulk said:

Used boats continue to drop around here.. even lake houses (while still few) on market are not moving well either..

We still have historic real estate prices around us, which is mostly 2nd lake houses.  With that said my Uncle (owns a local real estate office) said ~70% of purchases are cash.

.... I believe its completely driven by lack of inventory though.   I check weekly and every week its the same routine.  "Woah, only two waterfront houses.  Woah, they're insane with that price.  Woah, its contingent in 48 hours."  

 

[Brantb]

2 hours ago, sidekicknicholas said:

We still have historic real estate prices around us, which is mostly 2nd lake houses.  With that said my Uncle (owns a local real estate office) said ~70% of purchases are cash.

.... I believe its completely driven by lack of inventory though.   I check weekly and every week its the same routine.  "Woah, only two waterfront houses.  Woah, they're insane with that price.  Woah, its contingent in 48 hours."  

 

Lack of inventory is spot on. Up where my parents have lake houses(Norther WI), when i was a kid they were affordable to the middle class because the older generation didnt want to live there during winters and sold them after their kids got older. When I was a kid, up to about 20, there were other young kids around during the summer. Now talking to my mom, there are no young kids or families because they cant afford a second lake house due to supply. All the people that bought them 30 years ago either live up there full time now, or people with millions buy up the 250-500k cottages and build a mcmansion. Even if they were to go up for sale, not many young family out there can drop 1M+ on a second home.

[The Hulk]

This is exactly the case around here there are several of the lakes that I remember back in college and younger that used to have bars that got extremely hopping on the weekend. now they are low-key restaurants because the young crowd isn't there anymore... basically all the people that were in their '20s back then are 40-'50s now if they're around or they have kids and the only way they're up there is if grandparents still own the place..

middle class and lakefront don't go together anymore kind of like wake boats... sad.. but lakefront is a limited commodity not like they're making any more of it so I don't see the overall trend changing..

I will say well very few cottages around here or lake homes the overpaying has slightly stopped for the dumpy teardowns.. decent places are still going well but are sitting significantly longer They aren't selling next day they seem to sit on the market for a month or so.. quite different from the past couple years..

I've been watching a few used boats around here They seem to be lowering their prices to more reasonable numbers.. based on everything I'm hearing from the boat lift and dock industry and also dealer selling boats next year is what everybody is worried about right now.. 

 

[cowwboy]

13 hours ago, The Hulk said:

middle class and lakefront don't go together anymore kind of like wake boats... sad.. but lakefront is a limited commodity not like they're making any more of it so I don't see the overall trend changing..

Try being in  A state that the majority of lakes are controlled by the Army Corp. 
Lake Eufaula's lake manager has gone on a huge power trip the last few years to the point we have senators having to step in.  

[JpCrOOked]

2 hours ago, cowwboy said:

Try being in  A state that the majority of lakes are controlled by the Army Corp. 
Lake Eufaula's lake manager has gone on a huge power trip the last few years to the point we have senators having to step in.  

At least they are keeping the lake levels decent this year....

[The Hulk]

interesting, One boat Mfg just knocked off /downgraded 750 retail units /500 wholesale units for the year and is targeting 19% layoffs and will evaluate from there if another 10% more layoffs are needed by end of summer.  hmm seems i might have been onto something a few months back when i said mfgs need to cut a minimum of 30% .. well see if it happens 

on another note a different investment group that owns many marine companies and some very very popular boats brands, Is currently making some serious decisions in the coming weeks for similar moves as the above brand. 

still seeing a few of these used boats I've been watching around here keep dropping... 

i still think we have a year before we see The effects of current rates and monetary policy for the boating market both used and new. 

If I were not desperate for a boat this summer I think you're going to get much much better pricing for next boating season.. used or new..  

[ahopkins22LSV]

25 minutes ago, The Hulk said:

interesting, One boat Mfg just knocked off /downgraded 750 retail units /500 wholesale units for the year and is targeting 19% layoffs and will evaluate from there if another 10% more layoffs are needed by end of summer.  hmm seems i might have been onto something a few months back when i said mfgs need to cut a minimum of 30% .. well see if it happens 

on another note a different investment group that owns many marine companies and some very very popular boats brands, Is currently making some serious decisions in the coming weeks for similar moves as the above brand. 

still seeing a few of these used boats I've been watching around here keep dropping... 

i still think we have a year before we see The effects of current rates and monetary policy for the boating market both used and new. 

If I were not desperate for a boat this summer I think you're going to get much much better pricing for next boating season.. used or new..  

Please tell, which manufacturer? Which investment group? Put actual data with factual content in your posts. With sources - links, not a guy. 

[oldjeep]

[NorCalSurfer]

My dealership has a lot of boats still on the showroom floor from 6-8 months ago. My lake has been less busy also. I’m not sure if it’s because we are full with debris or the weekend weather has been abnormal (cloudy and not super warm). Water temp is 72 to 76 on a warm day so its perfect in my book. Either way, I’m enjoying less boats on the water for whatever the reason, even if my business is down 50%. 

[oldjeep]

We have been on the water a lot less due to all the smoke.  I'm not normally all that effected by air quality but jeeze it has been really bad.

[Hemmy]

8 hours ago, ahopkins22LSV said:

Please tell, which manufacturer? Which investment group? Put actual data with factual content in your posts. With sources - links, not a guy. 

There really aren't any links when you are entrenched in the area where a lot of these manufacturers are or see this stuff happening first hand.  My guess is the investment group is Polaris.  Polaris owns Bennington and Godfrey.  Winnebago owns Barletta and Forest River/Warren Buffet owns South Bay and Trifecta.  The RV industry has been awful with no sign of light at the end of the tunnel.  The pontoon manufacturers have just recently started slowing down production within the last month or so.  I know most of the RV manufacturers are doing a 2 week shut down for the 4th of July instead of the typical 1 week.  The only places that are not shutting down for 2 weeks are the higher end units like your Diesel RV's and class C's.  The shutdowns on the marine side are kind of hit or miss.  I see some shutting down for 2 weeks and some for 2.5 weeks.  I am not sure what Malibu's typical shutdown is this time of year though.

[ahopkins22LSV]

1 hour ago, Hemmy said:

There really aren't any links when you are entrenched in the area where a lot of these manufacturers are or see this stuff happening first hand.  My guess is the investment group is Polaris.  Polaris owns Bennington and Godfrey.  Winnebago owns Barletta and Forest River/Warren Buffet owns South Bay and Trifecta.  The RV industry has been awful with no sign of light at the end of the tunnel.  The pontoon manufacturers have just recently started slowing down production within the last month or so.  I know most of the RV manufacturers are doing a 2 week shut down for the 4th of July instead of the typical 1 week.  The only places that are not shutting down for 2 weeks are the higher end units like your Diesel RV's and class C's.  The shutdowns on the marine side are kind of hit or miss.  I see some shutting down for 2 weeks and some for 2.5 weeks.  I am not sure what Malibu's typical shutdown is this time of year though.

I understand that. But all of the above posts for the past few years are there is a company that I heard …

It is just stirring the pot. We’ve played the game for years now and it’s time to be done with it. We all know that things are going to slow down. To what extent? For how long? We aren’t sure. We also don’t really know if it’s going to be at, below or still above pre Covid numbers. 
 

This article gives some actually data on how much the boating industry truly exploded during Covid. So hearing about any job cut is not good, but to me it appears it is more like water finding it’s level. The pace we were on for the last two-three years was not sustainable. 
 

https://www.sofi.com/article/money-life/pandemic-paddlers-americans-take-up-boating/

 

To your point about which companies, it isn’t surprising to me that pontoon companies are seeing the largest slow down. If I had to guess they surged the most and people generally keep pontoons much longer. Same with general run-about boats. 

[The Hulk]

10 hours ago, ahopkins22LSV said:

Please tell, which manufacturer? Which investment group? Put actual data with factual content in your posts. With sources - links, not a guy. 

well buddy I know you hate my hearsay but frankly to be honest if I were to reveal sources or names people would lose their jobs... 

If it's just hearsay with no company name that's one thing... if it's information that has not been made public at the company or on the market then somebody gets canned...

 

[The Hulk]

29 minutes ago, ahopkins22LSV said:

I understand that. But all of the above posts for the past few years are there is a company that I heard …

It is just stirring the pot. We’ve played the game for years now and it’s time to be done with it. We all know that things are going to slow down. To what extent? For how long? We aren’t sure. We also don’t really know if it’s going to be at, below or still above pre Covid numbers. 
 

This article gives some actually data on how much the boating industry truly exploded during Covid. So hearing about any job cut is not good, but to me it appears it is more like water finding it’s level. The pace we were on for the last two-three years was not sustainable. 
 

https://www.sofi.com/article/money-life/pandemic-paddlers-americans-take-up-boating/

 

To your point about which companies, it isn’t surprising to me that pontoon companies are seeing the largest slow down. If I had to guess they surged the most and people generally keep pontoons much longer. Same with general run-about boats. 

And yes you are right our market exploded but what we are seeing now is an expected below pre-COVID numbers over the next year or two.. that is what is being predicted at some of these places while it may seem obvious they are planning for such.. it's easier to cut quantity to keep prices high and margins in check.. lot easier to add people and build more boats than it is to have realized you had too many people and built too many boats.. 

[The Hulk]

1 hour ago, Hemmy said:

There really aren't any links when you are entrenched in the area where a lot of these manufacturers are or see this stuff happening first hand.  My guess is the investment group is Polaris.  Polaris owns Bennington and Godfrey.  Winnebago owns Barletta and Forest River/Warren Buffet owns South Bay and Trifecta.  The RV industry has been awful with no sign of light at the end of the tunnel.  The pontoon manufacturers have just recently started slowing down production within the last month or so.  I know most of the RV manufacturers are doing a 2 week shut down for the 4th of July instead of the typical 1 week.  The only places that are not shutting down for 2 weeks are the higher end units like your Diesel RV's and class C's.  The shutdowns on the marine side are kind of hit or miss.  I see some shutting down for 2 weeks and some for 2.5 weeks.  I am not sure what Malibu's typical shutdown is this time of year though.

solid Guess haha! however, If you are correct I can neither confirm or deny! haha . in this case it was NOT this one but there is a lot of talk going around on these guys as well however, I don't have as much insight on these particulars mentioned..

to some degree or another they are all, somewhat entrenched with the above ones u mentioned 

 

But same principal.. in this neck of the woods everything from RVs to pontoons to boats... suppliers of suppliers, truckers+ delivery guys, you name it. it's the same general pool of labor and workforce and suppliers.. these are the guys that we're talking about massive price hikes and shortages before it was ever mainstream as well...

it's interesting that some of the workers are going to wait for some deals to buy leftover models next year thus my reasoning for informing people on here there should be some better deals coming down the pipeline over the next year if you're in the market I hold off for a bit. 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by The Hulk

[ahopkins22LSV]

23 minutes ago, The Hulk said:

well buddy I know you hate my hearsay but frankly to be honest if I were to reveal sources or names people would lose their jobs... 

If it's just hearsay with no company name that's one thing... if it's information that has not been made public at the company or on the market then somebody gets canned...

 

Then don't post it.

[bcoppess23]

2 hours ago, ahopkins22LSV said:

Then don't post it.

I am not here for arguing sake but, what is the harm in The Hulk posting it?  He has insight that many people don't have.  While yes, it may be sprinkled with some "click-bait" antics but, is it infringing on TOU?  If he is, then, by all means, yes, he should stop. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by bcoppess23

[ahopkins22LSV]

2 minutes ago, bcoppess23 said:

I am not here for arguing sake but, what is the harm in The Hulk posting it?  He has insight that many people don't have.  While yes, it may be sprinkled with some "click-bait" antics but, is it infringing on TOC?  If he is, then, by all means, yes, he should stop. 

For the past 3 years it has just been the same post over and over. Sometimes daily. It is just stirring the pot and providing no actual value to this thread or these forums. If his info so such secret inside information that someone will get fired if he merely posts the company online, then he shouldn't post it.

Maybe if he ever followed up with actual data and articles supporting his constant hearsay, it would be different. But that has never happened.

[hunter77ah]

51 minutes ago, The Hulk said:

well buddy I know you hate my hearsay but frankly to be honest if I were to reveal sources or names people would lose their jobs... 

If it's just hearsay with no company name that's one thing... if it's information that has not been made public at the company or on the market then somebody gets canned...

 

Its all fun and games until the SEC finds out.

[bcoppess23]

2 minutes ago, ahopkins22LSV said:

For the past 3 years it has just been the same post over and over. Sometimes daily. It is just stirring the pot and providing no actual value to this thread or these forums. If his info so such secret inside information that someone will get fired if he merely posts the company online, then he shouldn't post it.

Maybe if he ever followed up with actual data and articles supporting his constant hearsay, it would be different. But that has never happened.

In that case, he is entitled to post what he wants.  Just as you are.  I would ask caution as you are in a different position in this forum than he is and when you tell people to not do something, it can come across threatening.  Maybe not to him, but to others that read more than they post.  You telling someone not to do something in an open forum, for others to read, appears as he is in violation of the terms and makes others less interested in joining in conversation on any topic.

[shawndoggy]

6 minutes ago, hunter77ah said:

Its all fun and games until the SEC finds out.

If these  companies are public and are dolling out non public info to @The Hulk… well, methinks they have bigger probs than the economy. 

[rennis]

14 minutes ago, bcoppess23 said:

In that case, he is entitled to post what he wants.  Just as you are.  I would ask caution as you are in a different position in this forum than he is and when you tell people to not do something, it can come across threatening.  Maybe not to him, but to others that read more than they post.  You telling someone not to do something in an open forum, for others to read, appears as he is in violation of the terms and makes others less interested in joining in conversation on any topic.

+1.  the dude's name is also Anthony Hopkins and he might eat your liver with some fava beans.  

 

He's a moderator and he's just doing his job.  From my perspective the Sky is Falling half of this crowd has been given lots and lots of leash by the mods since this thread started. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by rennis

[ahopkins22LSV]

9 minutes ago, bcoppess23 said:

In that case, he is entitled to post what he wants.  Just as you are.  I would ask caution as you are in a different position in this forum than he is and when you tell people to not do something, it can come across threatening.  Maybe not to him, but to others that read more than they post.  You telling someone not to do something in an open forum, for others to read, appears as he is in violation of the terms and makes others less interested in joining in conversation on any topic.

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[Steve B.]

If ya hang around long enough at least half of anything has to come true.