MBUU by the numbers

[dizzygti]

3 minutes ago, oldjeep said:

I'll admit that I have never understood how the market for boats that cost what a starter house costs would not be a quickly saturated market. 

There is a lot of money out there...

And yeah, big lawsuits can put a damper on investing sentiment...

[mxmark4]

3 hours ago, MJHSupra said:

Dang, stock hit the 52 week low today during trading @ $36.06

Hey Mark!

[MJHSupra]

3 hours ago, amartin said:

Yes it is a 52 week low, but it is also about a 200 week low!

For sure.  I just wanted to be nice about it. 

Could be worst, back in March 2020 it was $18.73.  Then it rose to $81.04 in one year (2021).  Crazy COVID times . . . 

[MJHSupra]

2 hours ago, mxmark4 said:

Hey Mark!

Ha ha!!  Small world.  Hey back to you.

[The Hulk]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:26 AM, dizzygti said:

Sales trends can be assumed from the numbers I posted in that link.  Like you said, next earnings report will be telling.

Why would anyone believe the data. I think I’ve been saying stuff at dealerships is not selling hot for a long while… yet mfg numbers were contradictory and now we find out why.
 

I highly doubt Tommy’s was the only dealerships being pumped up. I also don’t think this is a Malibu only problem. Basically dealers are going to be sitting on inventory longer and moving less while many are pumped full.. Pain is coming..

 

Ultimately someone at Tommy’s bought into the idea that sales would magically continue at COVID boom numbers and beyond?? What’s confusing to me is why the Bank would have even financed this based on Tommy’s performance??? LOC/Loans of this size ALWAYS have bankers doing some sort of fiduciary limit on what the customer has a likelihood of paying back..too many things NOT adding up here!!!  CEOs get paid for stock performance so obviously all CEOs want to do is increase stock prices . Their incentive programs are tied to it. Banks want to make a crap ton off of interest And something smells fishy how this even got approved… 50M -160M … that’s crazy Their cash flow can’t even service the interest in good times with low rates let alone now!!!! This likely why I said a while back banks were putting halts and reducing limits in floor plan financing 

obviously somebody at the banks getting canned on this one..

Edited April 16 by The Hulk

[85 Barefoot]

Even assuming it was utilized at 160,000,000 (I’ve seen no authority it was, credit availability isn’t utilization), and the rate was 5%, that’s $8M a year.  If they did 1,000 boats a year that’s spread out to $8,000 a boat IF it was floor planned a whole year. Thats a line item of note for sure but not insane when you think about it because 1) most boats obviously sell much faster than a year 2) they were selling more than 1,000 if they did 1/3 of malibus product, and 3) unlikely they were actually floor planning $160,000,000.  
 

Now, obviously that’s for PAST considerations.  Market at a standstill going forward?  That’s an issue.  

EDIT: there is a news story out there that a bank has asserted default on $115 million

Edited April 17 by 85 Barefoot

[IXFE]

21 hours ago, MJHSupra said:

For sure.  I just wanted to be nice about it. 

Could be worst, back in March 2020 it was $18.73.  Then it rose to $81.04 in one year (2021).  Crazy COVID times . . . 

It never got that low in all of 2020. The lowest was $27.12 which happened just weeks after the SHTF 💩 

Edited April 16 by IXFE

[IXFE]

20 minutes ago, 85 Barefoot said:

Even assuming it was utilized at 160,000,000 (I’ve seen no authority it was, credit availability isn’t utilization), and the rate was 5%, that’s $8M a year.  If they did 1,000 boats a year that’s spread out to $8,000 a boat IF it was floor planned a whole year. Thats a line item of note for sure but not insane when you think about it because 1) most boats obviously sell much faster than a year 2) they were selling more than 1,000 if they did 1/3 of malibus product, and 3) unlikely they were actually floor planning $160,000,000.  
 

Now, obviously that’s for PAST considerations.  Market at a standstill going forward?  That’s an issue.  

5%…???

Where do I sign up??

[DAI]

1 hour ago, IXFE said:

It never got that low in all of 2020. The lowest was $27.12 which happened just weeks after the SHTF 💩 

 

I believe it hit $18.73 on 4/3/2020 (I believe that’s a close number and not intraday; but I don’t use that app that often so not 100% sure)

 

Edited April 17 by DAI

[NWBU]

5 minutes ago, DAI said:

 

I believe it hit $18.73 on 4/3/2020 (I believe that’s a close number and not intraday; but I don’t use that app that often so not 100% sure)

 

I remember that day since I was kicking myself for awhile afterwards about sitting that opportunity out. Then again, most growth/risk stocks doubled or tripled afterwards too.

[85 Barefoot]

1 hour ago, IXFE said:

5%…???

Where do I sign up??

Touché.  Floor plans are unique as to their terms obviously. Not just a simple line of credit collateralized by individual units. 

That said some googling tonight doesn’t seem 5% is that off base?  Is it?  Of course,  big difference between googling and signature lines.  Enlighten us on a reasonable rate charged for a unit sold in a reasonable time 

[The Hulk]

Didn’t they buy several dealerships during the past few years I’d be curious to know that total amount of debt/financing as well.
 

 

[BLSousa]

1 hour ago, The Hulk said:

Didn’t they buy several dealerships during the past few years I’d be curious to know that total amount of debt/financing as well.
 

 

Yes, they bought almost all of the California dealerships. I assume that is the majority of the basis for increasing their floor-plan financing limits. 

Edited April 17 by BLSousa

[NorCalSurfer]

1 hour ago, The Hulk said:

Didn’t they buy several dealerships during the past few years I’d be curious to know that total amount of debt/financing as well.
 

 

Yes, multiple in CA. Two in Nor Cal last year. Then a 3rd recently. How does Malibu allow this? 

Just a lovely combination for a first time Malibu owner.
 

Hopefully my comments are PG enough this time. 

Edited April 17 by NorCalSurfer

[mxmark4]

2 in Tennessee as well. The one herein Knoxville just got an all new dealership they opened in October. 

[Hemmy]

7 hours ago, The Hulk said:

Didn’t they buy several dealerships during the past few years I’d be curious to know that total amount of debt/financing as well.
 

 

Bought dealerships and built new showrooms with fancy elevator displays at a couple of their locations.

[Woodski]

 

[UWSkier]

When they swallowed Boulder Boats, I felt at the time that it was too much too fast. Icarus comes to mind. 

[rennis]

There is a lot of speculation going around in this thread and the other one re: Tommy's.  Well, Malibu too but it's a public company.  We have no idea what Tommy's financial position truly is and what that company's financial foundation looks like. It will be interesting to look back through this thread and the MBUU vs. Tommy's thread in a year or two when the whole/real story is revealed.  I suspect we know a very small fraction right now of all the facts and what the results will be. 

My take is that Malibu is in deep deep doo-doo if the SEC is getting involved.  If MBUU executives are at all guilty of inflating revenues/channel stuffing, I'm grabbing a large bucket of popcorn.  I am sure the SEC would love to make An Example out of this situation.  

Edited April 17 by rennis

[oldjeep]

10 minutes ago, rennis said:

My take is that Malibu is in deep deep doo-doo if the SEC is getting involved.  If MBUU executives are at all guilty of inflating revenues/channel stuffing, I'm grabbing a large bucket of popcorn.  I am sure the SEC would love to make An Example out of this situation.  

The SEC is getting involved - where did you see that?

And your other point about the speed of civil trials is interesting 1-2 years from now - will Tommys still be around if their bank(s) are after them now?

Edited April 17 by oldjeep

[Steve B.]

Gonna try to not speculate. Tragic at the least with any loss of jobs. I'm curious if this was a huge surprise to Malibu. And the seemingly immediate level of response surprises me a bit. Mostly because of how much of Bu's sales were coming by way of Tommy's. They couldn't work something out? Even if that meant some kind of acknowledgement of issues on whoever's part. Trying not to speculate, just understand.

[85 Barefoot]

17 hours ago, IXFE said:

5%…???

Where do I sign up??

I just ran my “simple” (it’s not) calculation again.  As there is a news story out there that they are in default on 115 million I used that, at 7.5%, and 1000 boats.  That’s $8,625 per boat.

[oldjeep]

FWIW - there are a few numbers at the bottom of this article.  The rate is 13.5% according to the article (could be a penalty rate since they are in arrears)

 

https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/manufacturers/lender-alleges-dealer-diverted-millions-in-sales-proceeds

 

As of March 27, according to the M&T complaint, the amounts owed to the bank were more than $115.9 million in principal, plus accrued interest of more than $2.2 million. That interest continues to accrue at a rate of 13.5%.

Edited April 17 by oldjeep

[dizzygti]

5 minutes ago, oldjeep said:

the amounts owed to the bank were more than $115.9 million in principal, plus accrued interest of more than $2.2 million. That interest continues to accrue at a rate of 13.5%.

:eek:

[Sparky450]

20 hours ago, The Hulk said:

And something smells fishy how this even got approved… 50M -160M …

This was my first thought. Also probably borrowing from banks to build new buildings. In a shaky market? Are these loans backed by equity besides the inventory? Or did the bank screw up that bad?  
 

 

15 hours ago, BLSousa said:

Yes, they bought almost all of the California dealerships. I assume that is the majority of the basis for increasing their floor-plan financing limits. 

Ventura Ca 

Madera Ca (I think this one closed a few weeks ago) 

Stockton Ca 

Sacramento Ca

And Tommy Website shows a 

Castaic location. 

I just searched the dealer locator for Tommy’s and found Captain. 

Edited April 17 by Sparky450