2017 Nautique G23 or 2018 Malibu 23 LSV

[TenTwentyOne]

Just now, Fffrank said:

I'm also a numbers geek and since the "marine board" data doesn't appear to be congruent with the production numbers from annual reports -- shouldn't we assume that whoever is compiling this "marine board" data is reporting partial/sample data?

This is exactly what I'm saying. It's not even a little discrepancy...... it's way the heck off..... 

[05hammerhead]

1 hour ago, DatTexasBoy said:

Some are adding for the surf wave, but there are many guys that will tell you it is detrimental to the wave and doesn't do much past a certain point. Most are adding 400-700lbs of lead spread around the boat.

 

You can add what ever you want on the wakeboard wake but most people do not need it. I am one of those that do not, BTW......

Talked to JD Webb at a demo day and they add an extra 4k in weight to stock, but then he said most weekend warriors do not even need the full stock ballast.

JD was up in MN last year for spring ride with a few other pros.  They set the G up exactly like you noted 4k over stock.  Buddy who rode with them said they burned 45 gallons of fuel in the 4 20 min sets they rode.  I find that hard to believe, but I suppose it could be right when you figure thats nearly 7,000lbs of water on top of a 6,000lb boat. 

[85 Barefoot]

1 hour ago, TenTwentyOne said:

 

1) all three of the "top three" are, in fact, putting out fairly close production numbers, with Nautique obviously trailing a bit. Still 2000 isn't all that far behind 2600 in the grand scheme of things.

2) Nautique obviously had a much smaller range of boats, with much less demand in the other models besides the G23. The GS series is much too young to have any data compiled on it. 

So, it just leaves me wondering what the heck Nautique is selling, if they are only selling less than 500 G23s. The numbers don't add up, unless they are also selling around 500 G21s and 500 G25s a year.......which I know isn't the case. 

I, like you, talk to many people in the industry, and I make it a point to ask questions like these. So when multiple sources tell me info that contradicts yours, and the actual obtainable facts support it, I'm gonna go with what actually adds up and makes sense.

Edit- I am on my second G flip, and it has gone very well. 

1) Actually that's like a 30% difference and $60 Million in revenue (at $100,000/boat) so I'd say it is actually pretty significant.

2) Actually Nautique has the exact same number of models as Malibu (10)

Nautique still sells a LOT of ski nautiques.  I'm not looking it up because I don't care to, but I bet easily more than half of nautiques sales are G23, 230, and SN.  That leaves 1000 boats of 6 different models (ok fine, last year, 5).  Doesn't seem that out of whack to me.

Edited August 2, 2017 by 85 Barefoot

[85 Barefoot]

17 minutes ago, Fffrank said:

I'm also a numbers geek and since the "marine board" data doesn't appear to be congruent with the production numbers from annual reports -- shouldn't we assume that whoever is compiling this "marine board" data is reporting partial/sample data?

How so?

He didn't quote the production numbers, only those of the 23 foot segment and OTHER people are commenting on the lines as wholes.   

[DarkSide]

@85 Barefoot ixfe data shows 422 G23 and 142 230 that only adds up to 564, so that means the other boats would have to be averaging 250 each, it doesnt add up.  So it must be a sampling issue.

Same thing i know the 237 is best selling model at the helmet.  They sold roughly 100 257's so that also points to sampling  error also.  

No doubt 23LSV is sales leader, i am not disputing that, but i do question volumes as the math doesn't work.

[85 Barefoot]

2 minutes ago, DarkSide said:

@85 Barefoot ixfe data shows 422 G23 and 142 230 that only adds up to 564, so that means the other boats would have to be averaging 250 each, it doesnt add up.  So it must be a sampling issue.

Same thing i know the 237 is best selling model at the helmet.  They sold roughly 100 257's so that also points to sampling  error also.  

No doubt 23LSV is sales leader, i am not disputing that, but i do question volumes as the math doesn't work.

First, what IXFE is posting is registrations, not sales, and for some manufacturers (like Malibu) the sale takes place, for their accounting, when built because they are paid for then. 

IXFE said rolling 12 months.  Unit sales by fiscal year are not reported in annual reports (of those that report) until well after FY ends are a "late" comparison to the rolling 12 months.  In fact, the annual reports would rarely line up with the rolling 12 months.   Annual reports report the last fiscal year's sales, so people are comparing fiscal year 2016 for the industry to the registration data for the last 12 months which is why they don't (and won't) line up.  That said, is it really that unbelievable that even though CC sold, whatever, 2000 boats in FY 2016 that that could be less in FY 2017?  People are comparing these numbers to sales numbers that include boats sold almost 2 years ago.

And for centurion, when sales numbers are released, it may well reflect that, but it doesn't make IXFE's numbers inaccurate, necessarily.

[kerpluxal]

10 minutes ago, DarkSide said:

@85 Barefoot ixfe data shows 422 G23 and 142 230 that only adds up to 564, so that means the other boats would have to be averaging 250 each, it doesnt add up.  So it must be a sampling issue.

Same thing i know the 237 is best selling model at the helmet.  They sold roughly 100 257's so that also points to sampling  error also.  

No doubt 23LSV is sales leader, i am not disputing that, but i do question volumes as the math doesn't work.

The data is for REGISTERED  boats.. live on a private lake.. you don't have to register it...

[TenTwentyOne]

6 minutes ago, 85 Barefoot said:

1) Actually that's like a 30% difference and $60 Million in revenue (at $100,000/boat) so I'd say it is actually pretty significant.

2) Actually Nautique has the exact same number of models as Malibu (10)

Nautique still sells a LOT of ski nautiques.  I'm not looking it up because I don't care to, but I bet easily more than half of nautiques sales are G23, 230, and SN.  That leaves 1000 boats of 6 different models (ok fine, last year, 5).  Doesn't seem that out of whack to me.

What took you so long 85??

1) You are using percentage change, not percentage difference for calculation.... happens to me all the time.  Anywho.....2600-2000= 600 (difference). Now figure the average (value a + value b / 2) average is 2300. Now you can figure your percentage difference...... D=600  A=2300. The difference as a percentage of the average is 600/2300= .26. 

  Its fair to say that 26% is still plenty significant......... what's more important is the relationship to the answer for point number two....

2)Not in the last 12 months they didn't. And certainly not for 2016/ early '17 model year, which is the latest info we have for public filings to compare to. They had 6 models. 7 if you really wanna count the closed bow and open bow 200 separate..... 10-6=4 10+6/2=8 ......... that's a 50% difference in the number of models.......

As for the sales of the 200..... I won't believe that for a second. It is a huge subject of conversation with dealers, customers, etc, about a refresh, and how it's not likely to come anytime soon, because they make less than 100 per year. Heck, you can also look at the new prostar as well. MC isn't even using up all of the traditional 100 TT builds per year, and haven't since the mid 2000s. Neither of those boats are moving more than 100 units/year. 3 visits to the Nautique factory, and only ever saw 1 in production...... the 200 has been due for a refresh for years now, and the ski guys were clawing and screaming for a new one this year. There was even rumors of a refresh...... that were shattered at the annual dealer meeting, along with reassurance that nothing was changing anytime soon.

 

[85 Barefoot]

4 minutes ago, TenTwentyOne said:

What took you so long 85??

1) You are using percentage change, not percentage difference for calculation.... happens to me all the time.  Anywho.....2600-2000= 600 (difference). Now figure the average (value a + value b / 2) average is 2300. Now you can figure your percentage difference...... D=600  A=2300. The difference as a percentage of the average is 600/2300= .26. 

  Its fair to say that 26% is still plenty significant......... what's more important is the relationship to the answer for point number two....

2)Not in the last 12 months they didn't. And certainly not for 2016/ early '17 model year, which is the latest info we have for public filings to compare to. They had 6 models. 7 if you really wanna count the closed bow and open bow 200 separate..... 10-6=4 10+6/2=8 ......... that's a 50% difference in the number of models.......

As for the sales of the 200..... I won't believe that for a second. It is a huge subject of conversation with dealers, customers, etc, about a refresh, and how it's not likely to come anytime soon, because they make less than 100 per year. Heck, you can also look at the new prostar as well. MC isn't even using up all of the traditional 100 TT builds per year, and haven't since the mid 2000s. Neither of those boats are moving more than 100 units/year. 3 visits to the Nautique factory, and only ever saw 1 in production...... the 200 has been due for a refresh for years now, and the ski guys were clawing and screaming for a new one this year. There was even rumors of a refresh...... that were shattered at the annual dealer meeting, along with reassurance that nothing was changing anytime soon.

 

 

2600 is indeed 30% more than 2000.  Here's how this works:  First you determine the difference.  Here, that's 600.  Then you divide 600 by the number you're trying to determine the % change of, here its 600/2000 is .3 which =30%.  Averaging 2600 and 2000 has nothing to do with it.  You're confusing the concept that 30% more than 2000 does not mean that 2000 is 30% less than 2600, which is actually 23% less...but in FACT, 2600 is 30% MORE than 2000.

I've followed the ballofspray thread as well.  In fact someone posted the "secret" new SN info that got taken down from apparently a dealer portal.  Will it be coming out?  I dunno.  I do know this, it took one poster there more than 5 months to get his 2017 after order.  I know this, it is widely rumored that there are about 100 promo drivers for correct craft, and almost all get a new boat every year.  So, that's 100 units just in their promo fleet, if 100 is accurate.  That's no other sales, no pros boats, nothing else.  While I don't have the #s, anecdotally, given all the private lake sales and promo sales, I can see them doing 250-300 SNs a year.  Not a promise, but certainly possible.

[edo]

and 50% is 3000

[IXFE]

You guys are funny... trying to take one piece of data from one country to then audit the entire industry's production.  Good luck with that.  

I'm only going to state this one more time.  This is Marine Board registration data from 50 states (to the extent that they participate and provide data in a timely fashion). It does not include any other country, and that means no Canada, Australia, etc. etc.  That said, it's as accurate a data source as the marine industry has access to (i.e. the don't publicly report volumes by model and they certainly aren't sharing data with each other).  This is the data all manufacturers and dealers are looking at.  If you reject it, you are implying there's a better source.  I'm hear to tell you , there is no better source.  While it may not be 100% complete, it is certainly representative of the % mix of models and market share (i.e. it's a HUGE sample size, statistically speaking).  I don't really care if you don't like it.  It is what it is (i.e. nothing more, nothing less).  I stated the source very clearly in my very first post!

I can see that bringing data to the forum clearly backfired.  In the future I'll keep it to myself.   

Enjoy your audit... 

[TenTwentyOne]

30 minutes ago, IXFE said:

You guys are funny... trying to take one piece of data from one country to then audit the entire industry's production.  Good luck with that.  

I'm only going to state this one more time.  This is Marine Board registration data from 50 states (to the extent that they participate and provide data in a timely fashion). It does not include any other country, and that means no Canada, Australia, etc. etc.  That said, it's as accurate a data source as the marine industry has access to (i.e. the don't publicly report volumes by model and they certainly aren't sharing data with each other).  This is the data all manufacturers and dealers are looking at.  If you reject it, you are implying there's a better source.  I'm hear to tell you , there is no better source.  While it may not be 100% complete, it is certainly representative of the % mix of models and market share (i.e. it's a HUGE sample size, statistically speaking).  I don't really care if you don't like it.  It is what it is (i.e. nothing more, nothing less).  I stated the source very clearly in my very first post!

I can see that bringing data to the forum clearly backfired.  In the future I'll keep it to myself.   

Enjoy your audit... 

I respect your info, and I know that you are true to your word in the process you used to acquire it. I just simply don't understand the large disparity in data...... it's not a little difference, that can be easily cleared up with data variances/timing/source/etc....... it's a HUGE difference in data. That is why I'm confused. Something is off.....

@85 Barefoot and @edo  Sorry, guys........ you are wrong. You are calculating percentage change, not percentage difference. There is a big difference between the two calculations...... and a reason why they are different. To see what I mean, try the inverse of your calculation......oops, it's different isn't it?!? If Malibu sales increased from 2000 to 2600 in a period of time, that would be a 30% INCREASE in sales, and would be percentage CHANGE..... not percentage difference. When comparing two numbers, for a percentage difference, you need to use the average of the two numbers in order to have a correct calculation.  Think about it a bit, and you will realize why.......

[teamerickson]

We need the @Shozen one!

[DarkSide]

7 minutes ago, TenTwentyOne said:

I respect your info, and I know that you are true to your word in the process you used to acquire it. I just simply don't understand the large disparity in data...... it's not a little difference, that can be easily cleared up with data variances/timing/source/etc....... it's a HUGE difference in data. That is why I'm confused. Something is off.....

 

This it's not that i dont trust @IXFE data, it just didn't add up so i had questions.  Not an "Audit" but friendly discussion, sorry to offend....  i could understand 1/5 malibu being 23LSV (700x5), but the G23 only being 1/5 at Nautique did not make sense.   Malibu has a more diverse platform of popular boats 22VLX, 25LSV, new MXZ's, Nautique has G23 and then everything else.... so it seamed odd that's all

[bamabonners]

So... if I buy a boat in Alabama and register it.  Then, I sell it to someone in Tennessee and they register it.  Does that count as 2 registrations for that model?  

[teamerickson]

Probably. If in the same rolling time period. Does it matter? I would think that wound be a small amount. Crazy boat flippers!

[85 Barefoot]

1 hour ago, TenTwentyOne said:

I respect your info, and I know that you are true to your word in the process you used to acquire it. I just simply don't understand the large disparity in data...... it's not a little difference, that can be easily cleared up with data variances/timing/source/etc....... it's a HUGE difference in data. That is why I'm confused. Something is off.....

@85 Barefoot and @edo  Sorry, guys........ you are wrong. You are calculating percentage change, not percentage difference. There is a big difference between the two calculations...... and a reason why they are different. To see what I mean, try the inverse of your calculation......oops, it's different isn't it?!? If Malibu sales increased from 2000 to 2600 in a period of time, that would be a 30% INCREASE in sales, and would be percentage CHANGE..... not percentage difference. When comparing two numbers, for a percentage difference, you need to use the average of the two numbers in order to have a correct calculation.  Think about it a bit, and you will realize why.......

 

Maybe this will make sense...Is a 13 ounce beer 30% bigger than a 10 ounce?   Yes  

Is a 26 ounce beer 30% bigger than a 20 ounce?  Yes  

Is 2600 30% more than 2000?  Yes

 

 

 

 

 

 

[malibu.c.c]

Talk is cheap and the numbers do the talking .check your data and u will see Malibu is outselling everyone ! The 23lsv is the best selling towboat in the world for years now !

my numbers also show 50% more 23lsv's sold then G23's and I expect that number to shoot up with the new 23LSV .

 

And the M235 is on its second year and those numbers should be growing since nothing comes close in wakes or waves and I know afew g owners that went to the m 

 

 

 

[mrnate450r]

The fanboys are rampant in this thread! Go demo both, buy the one that works best for you and your family! End of story. The nice part is that there is no wrong answer! 

[bamabonners]

34 minutes ago, malibu.c.c said:

Talk is cheap and the numbers do the talking .check your data and u will see Malibu is outselling everyone ! The 23lsv is the best selling towboat in the world for years now !

my numbers also show 50% more 23lsv's sold then G23's and I expect that number to shoot up with the new 23LSV .

 

And the M235 is on its second year and those numbers should be growing since nothing comes close in wakes or waves and I know afew g owners that went to the m 

 

 

 

^^This guy loves him some Malibu. 

It's all good.  We like them too...

[malibu.c.c]

It's not about loving Malibu ..it's about bs from other brand owners writing crap in a Malibu forum..

the top 3 all have nice boats .but s*** enough PR crap from other brands in here ..

 

[Pnwrider]

2 hours ago, bamabonners said:

^^This guy loves him some Malibu. 

It's all good.  We like them too...

Do you? All you seem to post about anymore is how expensive they are and how pricing is out of control. 

[Tims]

I think you guys scared the Op off. Holy S*#t! Two pages of arguing percentages. Incredible!

100% chance 85 will always have the last word

100% chance IXFE will get his feelings hurt 

[TenTwentyOne]

9 hours ago, 85 Barefoot said:

 

Maybe this will make sense...Is a 13 ounce beer 30% bigger than a 10 ounce?   Yes  

Is a 26 ounce beer 30% bigger than a 20 ounce?  Yes  

Is 2600 30% more than 2000?  Yes

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry @85 Barefoot......... I mean, your answers are correct if you are comparing values of the same thing. Like if you were calculating increase in sales, only for Malibu. A change in the number for only them. However, we aren't..... is 2000 30% less than 2600?? No

here, this will help you- http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/percentage-difference-vs-error.html

you can't say Malibu made 30% more, but Nautique only made 23% less when you reverse the equation. You are comparing them, not comparing a change one way or the other......

mmmm-beer

gotta look at it this way..... you have a 23 ounce pitcher of beer. You pour yourself 13 ounces, and you pour me 10 ounces. Did you get 30% more of the 23 ounces of beer?? Did I get 30% less?? No

then you look at it a different way..... you pour yourself a 10 ounce beer, and then decide you want more. You add 3 ounces. Did you increase the amount of YOUR beer by 30%?? Yes....

Edited August 3, 2017 by TenTwentyOne

[billjames]

9 hours ago, malibu.c.c said:

Talk is cheap and the numbers do the talking .check your data and u will see Malibu is outselling everyone ! The 23lsv is the best selling towboat in the world for years now !

my numbers also show 50% more 23lsv's sold then G23's and I expect that number to shoot up with the new 23LSV .

 

And the M235 is on its second year and those numbers should be growing since nothing comes close in wakes or waves and I know afew g owners that went to the m 

 

 

 

I cannot pass on this one about "and I know afew g owners that went to the m"

It remind me a prominent character in the US for the last year or so who always knows someone that is approving what he is saying albeit most of the population see the opposite (according to polls, popular vote and such). I did not know this trick would become the main argument in 2017. This trick is on par with: "trust me, I know what I am talking about". I am baffle by such a power in arguing . I guess not everybody took critical thinking 101 at school.

Maybe the ones you know are the outliers....... Maybe a few does not represent a trend...... maybe your sample is too small to make inference for the population as a whole. Did you compute the 95% margin of error based on your sample size as you like numbers? I bet your margin or error will result in an impossible conclusion :).