Used Boat Prices Falling

[ahopkins22LSV]

19 hours ago, shawndoggy said:

Curious how the RV manufacturers' production numbers looked 2019-20-21-22?  Was there a big spike in production in 20 and 21 or was the actual number of units still kept down because of supply-chain, and what not?

 

 

1 hour ago, Hemmy said:

The production increases were most likely unchanged by any supply chain issues.  They kept building units whether they had parts or not.  Their yards were full of unfinished units.  What they actually got out the door was lower than what they could have shipped.  It was hard to believe that as many units as they were building, retail was actually outpacing production during the height of the pandemic boom.
Now there are still a lot of units sitting in the manufacturers yards that have stop ship labels on them waiting on parts, but also because they now have a surplus which is really cutting back production.
There are several new product shows over the next few weeks and sometimes in the past (normal non Covid years) this would boost sales as dealers were waiting for the model changes.  We are not banking on that too much this time around.

2019 = 406,070
2020 = 430,412
2021 = 600,240

This was my question and those figures really put it into perspective. That is an insane jump for 2021. So are sales falling off the cliff compared to the 400-430 number or the 600? It makes sense to have a lull after a huge peak like and combined with the world opening back up that especially in the rv industry. Hopefully the lull isn’t too long.

[granddaddy55]

On 8/4/2022 at 12:37 AM, Gene3x said:

My dealer is saying that more people are starting to bring in boats to put up for sale on consignment than he has seen in a long time.  

so did he ever fix yours? or is he trying to distract you?

[Hemmy]

32 minutes ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

 

This was my question and those figures really put it into perspective. That is an insane jump for 2021. So are sales falling off the cliff compared to the 400-430 number or the 600? It makes sense to have a lull after a huge peak like and combined with the world opening back up that especially in the rv industry. Hopefully the lull isn’t too long.

Year to end of July of this year has surpassed the same time frame as 2021 by around 8,600 units.  However, August is way down and the remaining months of this year will be the same.  
Historically, marine has usually trailed RV by about 6 months or so.
Realistically, 400,000/year is a pretty good year.  Right now everybody is setup for 600,000/year.  There will definitely be some cutbacks and most likely never see 600,000/year again, but who knows.  It is going to get real ugly for us in the RV industry.
I agree @ahopkinsVTX, hopefully this doesn't last too long.  

[ahopkins22LSV]

45 minutes ago, Hemmy said:

Year to end of July of this year has surpassed the same time frame as 2021 by around 8,600 units.  However, August is way down and the remaining months of this year will be the same.  
Historically, marine has usually trailed RV by about 6 months or so.
Realistically, 400,000/year is a pretty good year.  Right now everybody is setup for 600,000/year.  There will definitely be some cutbacks and most likely never see 600,000/year again, but who knows.  It is going to get real ugly for us in the RV industry.
I agree @ahopkinsVTX, hopefully this doesn't last too long.  

Well if historically 400/year is a good year and then everyone tooled up to 600/year then cuts should be expected. As long as you don’t drop way below average and stay there then I honestly don’t see it as an issue. The problem everyone looks just short term. I think it is too soon to call anything. We saw the highest swing ever, a return to normal is expected and needed. 

[Gene3x]

7 hours ago, granddaddy55 said:

so did he ever fix yours? or is he trying to distract you?

It is fixed yes.  I took my second outing on it yesterday and finally got the wake right with help from some pro riders.  I am excited to get to use it now but still disappointing that I missed almost the full season of riding by having to drive and bum rides off other people and not take my family out when they wanted.  But hats off to the guys in the new Tommy's dealership in Dallas (previously Waterski America)  for weathering through it with all they have going on.

[granddaddy55]

On 8/29/2022 at 4:16 PM, Gene3x said:

It is fixed yes.  I took my second outing on it yesterday and finally got the wake right with help from some pro riders.  I am excited to get to use it now but still disappointing that I missed almost the full season of riding by having to drive and bum rides off other people and not take my family out when they wanted.  But hats off to the guys in the new Tommy's dealership in Dallas (previously Waterski America)  for weathering through it with all they have going on.

still lots of time left, let the kids play ball and you go ride !! 

[The Hulk]

On 8/29/2022 at 10:11 AM, Hemmy said:

Year to end of July of this year has surpassed the same time frame as 2021 by around 8,600 units.  However, August is way down and the remaining months of this year will be the same.  
Historically, marine has usually trailed RV by about 6 months or so.
Realistically, 400,000/year is a pretty good year.  Right now everybody is setup for 600,000/year.  There will definitely be some cutbacks and most likely never see 600,000/year again, but who knows.  It is going to get real ugly for us in the RV industry.
I agree @ahopkinsVTX, hopefully this doesn't last too long.  

Historically RV/boats are a few years on then a few years off from what I've seen in my time on earth. inflation is the kicker this time on top of bad economy and yet to spike energy which will take a few years from now if the switch if flipped tomorrow.. most mfgs ar planning on a few down years

I you pull that future  demand fwd at some point it's gotta lag for a few years to meet equilibrium.. I suspect RVs as an example may only be 300-350k over next few years as example.

 

As mentioned a company making boat/RV critical component has basically stopped last month.. A gal there said it's never been this bad in 10yrs she's been there.. although guess she'stoo young to have been through 08...  

[psiedtsi]

I've definitely noticed prices coming down in MN on used, especially that low-middle tier. I'm seeing boats listed much longer and prices being dropped, which means there is more inventory on the private market. 

 

Started considering upgrading my boat right now, found a Sunscape 25 LSV with the 8100 for mid 20s, it seems well maintained, just a little higher hours on the motor. 

[UWSkier]

Starting to see some killer deals again on direct drives. 08 Nautique 196 with 500 hours for $28k a week or so ago. Of course those deals don't last long... 

[OtherBoatisaCessna]

So what’s the update here?  I keep expecting all the season-end used boats to hit the market (been trying to buy since July!), and there just aren’t any boats in our area to speak of (Boise).  Even two weeks after Labor Day there seems to be fewer boats for sale now than there were when we sold our in the middle of summer.  I don’t get it.  
 

I’m honestly confused and don’t know what to do.  I assumed we would buy a used boat at the end of the season but that’s seemingly not happening - we could have our first freeze in 30 days, which makes it pretty hard to test drive as boats get winterized…. What are you all seeing out there, cuz our market just doesn’t make sense.  I may be ordering new after all.. hope the economy doesn’t crater, pretty sure it will/is.  

[CaptainMorgan]

25 minutes ago, OtherBoatisaCessna said:

So what’s the update here?  I keep expecting all the season-end used boats to hit the market (been trying to buy since July!), and there just aren’t any boats in our area to speak of (Boise).  Even two weeks after Labor Day there seems to be fewer boats for sale now than there were when we sold our in the middle of summer.  I don’t get it.  
 

I’m honestly confused and don’t know what to do.  I assumed we would buy a used boat at the end of the season but that’s seemingly not happening - we could have our first freeze in 30 days, which makes it pretty hard to test drive as boats get winterized…. What are you all seeing out there, cuz our market just doesn’t make sense.  I may be ordering new after all.. hope the economy doesn’t crater, pretty sure it will/is.  

as usual, i have no hard/useful info   BUT, assuming websites are being maintained, local dealership is still sitting on a handful of 2022's that have been sitting all summer, and starting to advertise incoming 2023's.  been a couple years since anything sat at all, so i'm taking that as a sign that market is softening slowly. 

Like gas prices though, up like a rocket and down like a feather -- folks that paid a premium over past 1-2 years are going to have a hard time swallowing a soft market price and thus may hang on for a year or two rather than realize the loss now (some other TMC'er made this point previously, can't find it to give them credit). therefore perhaps fewer used boats than usual as production last year was low and those few buyers donjt want to sell now.

may be a decent time to go to your dealership and inquire about 2023 availability/options.  maybe they'll have a better deal than you realize (or it'll solidify need to wait and shop across a wider region perhaps)

[shawndoggy]

12 minutes ago, OtherBoatisaCessna said:

So what’s the update here?  I keep expecting all the season-end used boats to hit the market (been trying to buy since July!), and there just aren’t any boats in our area to speak of (Boise).  Even two weeks after Labor Day there seems to be fewer boats for sale now than there were when we sold our in the middle of summer.  I don’t get it.  
 

I’m honestly confused and don’t know what to do.  I assumed we would buy a used boat at the end of the season but that’s seemingly not happening - we could have our first freeze in 30 days, which makes it pretty hard to test drive as boats get winterized…. What are you all seeing out there, cuz our market just doesn’t make sense.  I may be ordering new after all.. hope the economy doesn’t crater, pretty sure it will/is.  

I think we are still in the denial stage... Folks know their boats (and other assets) aren't worth what they were in 2020/21, but the debt service isn't killing them (yet), so they are holding off "till the market comes back."  Inflation sucks, but look at the unemployment numbers ... jobs are still there for people who want them and the labor market continues to grow.''  Even gas prices are declining ... still high but in the west starting with a 4 is way better than starting with a 6.

There's also potentially still some pent up demand... when demand went crazy in 2020 and 21, production stayed pretty flat in comparison.  You probably aren't the only "regular" buyer who wasn't down for buying at full MSRP, and decided to put off buying till things got back to normal.

In my region (not too far from you) there are rarely that many boats for sale that I would consider a "deal."  maybe 1 or 2 in the fall and 1 or 2 in the spring.  Even going back to 2010 or so.  If you are expecting an avalanche of below retail near new boats like in 08-09, I don't think we have the signals for that yet.

If you are planning to hold the boat for a while, why not explore new?  Seems like pricing should at least be reverting to normal discounts (of course on top of two years of 20% price inflation).

 

[ndahlberg12]

Not the boat market, but I listed my 2015 Cedar Creek fifth wheel last Tuesday for sale on the high end of NADA. It was sold, paid for and picked up by Sunday. Almost full price. The used RV market here is still thriving, new sales seem to have slowed. We are hoping to find one this fall/winter. 

[granddaddy55]

2 hours ago, OtherBoatisaCessna said:

So what’s the update here?  I keep expecting all the season-end used boats to hit the market (been trying to buy since July!), and there just aren’t any boats in our area to speak of (Boise).  Even two weeks after Labor Day there seems to be fewer boats for sale now than there were when we sold our in the middle of summer.  I don’t get it.  
 

I’m honestly confused and don’t know what to do.  I assumed we would buy a used boat at the end of the season but that’s seemingly not happening - we could have our first freeze in 30 days, which makes it pretty hard to test drive as boats get winterized…. What are you all seeing out there, cuz our market just doesn’t make sense.  I may be ordering new after all.. hope the economy doesn’t crater, pretty sure it will/is.  

then why did you sell a perfectly good boat?  to make a profit?  why didn't you just enjoy your summer and store yours? not criticizing, just trying to understand 

[rennis]

On 8/17/2022 at 7:56 AM, rennis said:

I don't think you'll see a "ton" of used boats hitting the market or a glut.  Maybe more this year than the last two years, but last year there were not many good used boats for sale on the market at all in the 2nd half of 2021.  There were a small number of overpriced boats that sat unsold for months but that was about it.  Most families who buy these toys intend to hang onto them for a good long while.  

 

^what he said re: current market conditions.

I have never actually seen a glut of boats hit the used market at one time, no matter the greater economy.  It just doesn't happen or if it does it is exceedingly rare and brief.  Good deals happen, but they're random and not all at once.  Right at the end of 2008/start of 2009 there were deals, but that was an unusual/unprecedented time when the automotive industry was in shambles, dealerships were closing, etc.  I don't see anything like that happening today.  Knock on wood. 

I would just order the new boat if you can afford it and stop thinking about it.  Or wait until 2023 when there is a real chance of recession and then maybe some dumb-dumbs in Boise will panic sell some assets they will end up regretting for the rest of their lives.  YMMV. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by rennis

[OtherBoatisaCessna]

5 hours ago, granddaddy55 said:

then why did you sell a perfectly good boat?  to make a profit?  why didn't you just enjoy your summer and store yours? not criticizing, just trying to understand 

It was quite an old boat - 2005.  Not something that would exactly fly off the shelf, at least, so I thought.  There is so much blood in the water, so to speak, economically speaking that I figured we'd really struggle to sell it this fall when a lot of newer, better boats came on the market and buyer demand slumped with rising interest rates, gas prices, and the rush of the season was gone.  I knew I wanted to buy a new (well, new used) boat this fall, and I didn't want to be in the situation of having to own two boats at the same time in a bad economy, so I figured I'd do the prudent thing and offload my old one while I still could and be ready for some used boats to hit the market when the season ended (or maybe I could find one before and still use it this summer).  Neither has so far happened. 

I just wrote out a paragraph about the doom and gloom I'm seeing on the horizon and then deleted it, because who knows.  But man, I really thought people would be bailing out by now.  

 

[theloungelife]

6 hours ago, rennis said:

Right at the end of 2008/start of 2009 there were deals, but that was an unusual/unprecedented time when the automotive industry was in shambles, dealerships were closing, etc.  I don't see anything like that happening today.  Knock on wood. 

Only other time I can think of were the first few weeks of the pandemic.  I remember Tommy's discounting all their new inventory 40% for few weeks.  Almost went through on a new 2019 MXZ 22 at the time for $90k.  Could have flipped a few months later for much more.  Oh well.  

[jjackkrash]

4 hours ago, theloungelife said:

Only other time I can think of were the first few weeks of the pandemic.  

I ordered my current boat the second week of the lockdowns.  I got the sense they thought they might never sell another boat.  I got a crazy deal all things considered and when it finally arrived late summer my trade value had gone through the roof (I had the main boat price locked in but not the trade).  I feel pretty fortunate right now given the way things went.  

Edited September 16, 2022 by jjackkrash

[CaptainMorgan]

3 hours ago, OtherBoatisaCessna said:

It was quite an old boat - 2005.  Not something that would exactly fly off the shelf, at least, so I thought.  There is so much blood in the water, so to speak, economically speaking that I figured we'd really struggle to sell it this fall when a lot of newer, better boats came on the market and buyer demand slumped with rising interest rates, gas prices, and the rush of the season was gone.  I knew I wanted to buy a new (well, new used) boat this fall, and I didn't want to be in the situation of having to own two boats at the same time in a bad economy, so I figured I'd do the prudent thing and offload my old one while I still could and be ready for some used boats to hit the market when the season ended (or maybe I could find one before and still use it this summer).  Neither has so far happened. 

I just wrote out a paragraph about the doom and gloom I'm seeing on the horizon and then deleted it, because who knows.  But man, I really thought people would be bailing out by now.  

 

@OtherBoatisaCessna you haven't mentioned what exactly you are looking for (use case, size, age, budget)...but i see 3 Malibu's and 3 Axis listed on onlyinboards in your area - spanning A20, T22, A24's and 21, 23, 25 LSVs with various ages etc.  (if you open to other brands - heresey i know - there's another 20+ options).

not sure if you are being picky or severly budget constrained or just waiting on a heroic deal but there are options out there to look at and ride behind prior to winter.  somebody will be willing to deal to avoid the winter headache.  call me a pragmatist, but after missing half a season already, perfect may be the enemy of good enough...

[NWBU]

I think it’s easy to expect 2008/2009 for every hiccup, but that was a lifetime event. We’ve got a fun couple years coming up but I’m not convinced it looks like the last round.

Sales are down a bit but values are holding strong. Of the half dozen or so friends who swore they’d never spend new boat $ prior to Covid, or even imagined ever owning a boat, and then promptly dropped $100-200k as soon as Disneyland shut down, not a single one is thinking about selling theirs in the near future. And every one of that group is watching the economy, talking about it and actively positioning for a decent recession. 

4 lightly used M220’s came up for sale in the last month around here and all sold quickly for asking or close to it. I’ll be in another M220 next year and I’m expecting to see the other 3 sellers in an M or possibly 25/26 LSV next summer too. 

Edited September 16, 2022 by NWBU

[granddaddy55]

7 hours ago, OtherBoatisaCessna said:

It was quite an old boat - 2005.  Not something that would exactly fly off the shelf, at least, so I thought.  There is so much blood in the water, so to speak, economically speaking that I figured we'd really struggle to sell it this fall when a lot of newer, better boats came on the market and buyer demand slumped with rising interest rates, gas prices, and the rush of the season was gone.  I knew I wanted to buy a new (well, new used) boat this fall, and I didn't want to be in the situation of having to own two boats at the same time in a bad economy, so I figured I'd do the prudent thing and offload my old one while I still could and be ready for some used boats to hit the market when the season ended (or maybe I could find one before and still use it this summer).  Neither has so far happened. 

I just wrote out a paragraph about the doom and gloom I'm seeing on the horizon and then deleted it, because who knows.  But man, I really thought people would be bailing out by now.  

 

i just traded in and took my losses to upgrade,  i didn't want have 2 boats so i traded,  getting a new boat was s surprise thing and happened fast

[OtherBoatisaCessna]

@CaptainMorgan Yes, we’re being a bit picky, it’s a fair criticism.  We’ve wanted something pretty new which rules out half those boats, 23’ or longer (ruling out most of the remaining half) and have a couple options preferences that has ruled out the rest (if I’m gonna spend the money on a Malibu, I want a damn flip-down swim-step, okay?  Haha).  I’d buy the A24 you noted (it just hit the market) but those colors… woof.

We’re open to most of the 23-24, maybe 25’ Malibu or Axis boats, and at this point we’ll probably just put a 23LSV on order - it’s honestly probably the best fit for the fam - but I’m still surprised that there haven’t been more options.  

Oh, for the record, it’s not for lack of trying - we’ve kinda been burned on at least two deals, fwiw.  One A24 we had in contract and the seller asked if he could use it “one more time” before it went in for the trade-in inspection (required for warranty transfer).  Sure enough, he wrecked it.  Another was sold out from under us to the seller’s buddy, who then never used it to the point that the original seller called us back asking if we wanted him to put us in touch with the new owner (no, because the warranty would no longer be good), etc.  

Oh, I’ve also soured on going out of the area to buy used - our dealer is basically threatening that they won’t work on any boats not bought from or originally sold through them.  That limits the search a bit (lots more boats for sale in SLC).  It’s a massive headache to buy a boat that you can’t readily see, too.  The wrecked A24 was out of state, that was fun to deal with.  

[Brantb]

20 hours ago, theloungelife said:

Only other time I can think of were the first few weeks of the pandemic.  I remember Tommy's discounting all their new inventory 40% for few weeks.  Almost went through on a new 2019 MXZ 22 at the time for $90k.  Could have flipped a few months later for much more.  Oh well.  

I posted a screenshot when i got that same email. Got the option list of a 22 LSV still sitting in my email. $86k for a brand new leftover 19 would have been sweet. Still think about that missed opportunity.

[CaptainMorgan]

10 hours ago, OtherBoatisaCessna said:

@CaptainMorgan Yes, we’re being a bit picky, it’s a fair criticism.  We’ve wanted something pretty new which rules out half those boats, 23’ or longer (ruling out most of the remaining half) and have a couple options preferences that has ruled out the rest (if I’m gonna spend the money on a Malibu, I want a damn flip-down swim-step, okay?  Haha).  I’d buy the A24 you noted (it just hit the market) but those colors… woof.

We’re open to most of the 23-24, maybe 25’ Malibu or Axis boats, and at this point we’ll probably just put a 23LSV on order - it’s honestly probably the best fit for the fam - but I’m still surprised that there haven’t been more options.  

Oh, for the record, it’s not for lack of trying - we’ve kinda been burned on at least two deals, fwiw.  One A24 we had in contract and the seller asked if he could use it “one more time” before it went in for the trade-in inspection (required for warranty transfer).  Sure enough, he wrecked it.  Another was sold out from under us to the seller’s buddy, who then never used it to the point that the original seller called us back asking if we wanted him to put us in touch with the new owner (no, because the warranty would no longer be good), etc.  

Oh, I’ve also soured on going out of the area to buy used - our dealer is basically threatening that they won’t work on any boats not bought from or originally sold through them.  That limits the search a bit (lots more boats for sale in SLC).  It’s a massive headache to buy a boat that you can’t readily see, too.  The wrecked A24 was out of state, that was fun to deal with.  

Wow. That's a rough rundown. Sucks it's been that hard and selection isnt huge and if dealer is being a factor, that can complicate everything 

Sounds like you've got a good idea what you want to narrow the search and used boat shopping on your behalf is certainly easy from my couch

FWIW endorse your new order plan.  Life is short, if you can swing it, get what you want, dont look back and enjoy the hell out of it.

[oldjeep]

School has started and the campgrounds I have been at the last 2 days are packed with RVs and trailers, coming and going.  Surprised that they were not empty.