Used Boat Prices Falling

[The Hulk]

14 minutes ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

You completely failed to mention why the bank failed or why everyone moved their money. It was because SVB sold billions of bonds at a loss to reinvest, for reasons to build confidence in their clients. But it had the exact opposite effect and everyone moved their money out. How does that compare to other banks in the US. Who else is doing that? Don’t paint a very specific instance with a giant brush to the rest of the banks and economy. One chart snipped from an article is evidence to nothing. 

Because it's NOT isolated.. nearly every bank has been forced to buy longer term treasuries and securities to yield a 2-3% rate over the past 6-8yrs. 

As bank deposits decline (nationally not just Silicone valley) remember inflation and savings are rapidly dwindling across the nation at an alarming rate.. when deposits drop or reduce banks are forced to sell/liquid/ shore things up but they have to sell at a discount as nobody in that rehlm wants to buy a loosing product when they can buy at 2+* that return now.. that forces the banks to sell them at a discount or loss.. The more banks that sell further pushes those prices down making it even worse.

There is a stupid loophole the banks DON'T have to actually account for that loss until they sell. 

if people start transferring $ out of their regional bank guess what everyone of those banks now has to sell more and more at a loss.. domino effect.. consider it would only take 5-10% deposits leaving most banks to crash it quickly. 

Powell wants to keep raising rates.. he'll have to think twice now what problem these quickly raising rates causes the banking system. They can't adjust quick enough to be mark to market.

Now what's going to happen as Auto loan reckoning comes for smaller style CU /local banks that had the best rates? Delinquencies on auto loans has now surpassed 08/09 levels yet nobody seems to be concerned 😂

Edited March 12, 2023 by The Hulk

[CDAWake]

 

Im sure we are going to see a correction in the coming year or so. Based on historical data, I think we’ll be ok. Let’s not forget this happens and we do in fact recover. The sky is not falling. Make smart choices, prepare for the worst and it makes things much less scary (no matter how scary some people like to make it sound). 
 

I was out of work for 15 months thanks to Covid, somehow I’m still here…

cheers

 

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by CDAWake

[ahopkins22LSV]

No one ever said the near term road isn’t going to be bumpy or rough but the story be preached of every bank is going to close and no one will have their money is just crazy. I’m honestly sick of getting see the same doomsday posts week over week for the last three+ years. 

[mxmark4]

Signature bank apparently taken over by feds too.

[The Hulk]

16 minutes ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

No one ever said the near term road isn’t going to be bumpy or rough but the story be preached of every bank is going to close and no one will have their money is just crazy. I’m honestly sick of getting see the sales doomsday posts week over week for the last three+ years. 

Didn't say evey bank would close.. some will actuy get much much larger. I just pointed out that it's not isolated to one Bank in cali.. and sure enough later in the day another one just got shut down on the other side of the country.. 

I said that (IF) there was no rescue on deposit protection above the $250k then the domino/contagion would spread quickly as people flee unsecured deposits to safer banks or better yet higher yielding products.

No doubt the road down is bumpy and as @CDAWake shows the upside is..  well generally to the upside..

The main thing over the past couple years cash has been trash And you are getting paid to borrow money.. Now cash is king and we just learned in the past few days insured cash and liquidity is even more important! 

Edited March 13, 2023 by The Hulk

[oldjeep]

7 minutes ago, mxmark4 said:

Signature bank apparently taken over by feds too.

And the fed just announced that they are guaranteeing SVb deposits (and signature bank)

Edited March 13, 2023 by oldjeep

[The Hulk]

Thankfully the Fed announced  protecting all deposits at both banks and seem to have set the tone they will do the same with others that may arrise from the exact same reasons.. 

 After all it probably would not have been good to tell every business in America that the majority of their funds are not FDIC protected 😂

Edited March 13, 2023 by The Hulk

[IXFE]

24 minutes ago, oldjeep said:

And the fed just announced that they are guaranteeing SVb deposits (and signature bank)

And just like the 26.5 LSV, @The Hulk correctly predicted this outcome.  

Meanwhile, I pulled all my deposits out yesterday in rolls of quarters.  My cars may all be parked outside this weekend, but at least I'm liquid! 

The good news is I now know what I'm doing tomorrow... I suppose now it's safe to haul it all back to my non-Kalifornia bank. Good thing diesel is cheap! 

[Pnwrider]

2 hours ago, The Hulk said:

Thankfully the Fed announced  protecting all deposits at both banks and seem to have set the tone they will do the same with others that may arrise from the exact same reasons.. 

 After all it probably would not have been good to tell every business in America that the majority of their funds are not FDIC protected 😂

Thank goodness I have time to cancel all my short positions in regional banks that will now not all collapse on Monday. 
 

FDIC did same thing in 2008 when Wamu went under. Not a single depositor lost money. One of these days I’m gonna create an inverse Hulk account and buy companies/sectors he predicts will fail next. He usually time the capitulation quite well.  

[Stevo]

@Pnwrider you don’t follow the HBX index?  It’s the HulkBoatIndex and is modeled after the ABX Index 

 

Edited March 13, 2023 by Stevo

[smuurph84]

YA know I posted on this thread half laughing thinking I may actually be able to time the boat market with an upgrade late summer . As part of a small business I went through the weekend wondering what would we do  if we had no money to pay everyone this week due to our bank. A scary thought for sure on how quick things could change . I agree with hulk they should for sure up at least for small businesses the 250k
 

are loan sharks still a thing????

[The Hulk]

those darn predictions.... should be an interesting open today for many of these other banks CMA/WAL/Zion/KEY etc. 

Edited March 13, 2023 by The Hulk

[Stevo]

It’s starting 

[Ronnie]

OK @The Hulk and the other contributors. This is NOT a thread on the economy of the world or about the sky falling, this is about used boat prices falling (if they really are?). Lets get this back on track. I suspect there are other forums where you can predict your Doomsday.

No more warnings.

[CDAWake]

 

So how about those used boat prices?

Edited March 13, 2023 by CDAWake

[UWSkier]

45 minutes ago, CDAWake said:

 

So how about those used boat prices?

Heard they're falling.

TBH I still see prices all over the map for slalom tugs.

[TAQ44]

1 hour ago, CDAWake said:

 

So how about those used boat prices?

Haha! Exactly. Someone takes this site a bit too seriously. 

[The Hulk]

Oh come on now it's always fun to stir the pot !

Used boats have all but stopped from a dealer I just spoke to as he said. avg financing is about 9- 10% on used and 6-7% in new  .. he's hoping the rates drop a few % so things pick up.. may get lucky with a pivot but may be later in year.

 

Some car mfgs just launched 0% financing on new 22 models..  

Edited March 13, 2023 by The Hulk

[Shea]

1 hour ago, The Hulk said:

Oh come on now it's always fun to stir the pot !

Used boats have all but stopped from a dealer I just spoke to as he said. avg financing is about 9- 10% on used and 6-7% in new  .. he's hoping the rates drop a few % so things pick up.. may get lucky with a pivot but may be later in year.

 

Some car mfgs just launched 0% financing on new 22 models..  

The drop in interest seems like wishful thinking but who knows.  I certainly don't...  Just seems that way.  I bet if you walk in willing to write a check on new or used you could get a heck of a deal right now.  

[IXFE]

9 hours ago, TAQ44 said:

Haha! Exactly. Someone takes this site a bit too seriously. 

If by “someone” you mean the owner, then yeah he does…. 

[TAQ44]

8 hours ago, IXFE said:

If by “someone” you mean the owner, then yeah he does…. 

And apparently so do you😂😂😂

Power trips IMO are reserved for those who got really picked on in high school. And I appreciate the hulk and his intelligence that he adds to the site. 

[spikew919]

Not sure used or new boat prices will mean much in the near future, since the current direction we are headed is to phase out private ownership of boats and pretty much land or anything 🤷🏻‍♂️  that’s the Agenda B f things don’t change. 

[TAQ44]

Just went to the Sac boat show in CA. Nothing but ridiculously increased prices here for new….

[IXFE]

23 minutes ago, TAQ44 said:

And apparently so do you😂😂😂

Power trips IMO are reserved for those who got really picked on in high school. And I appreciate the hulk and his intelligence that he adds to the site. 

I appreciate the hulk too and consider him a personal friend. But Ronnie's post wasn't about the hulk and neither was mine.  Ronnie just asked us all to stay on topic and I just thought you should know who you were calling out and did so in a fun, cheeky way.  You reacted poorly IMO by throwing insults (at me or at him, it's not clear to me), which says a lot about you. 

You are a guest on Ronnie's site, and not even a paying guest.  Kinda like walking into his house and complaining you don't like the free beer he just gave you then insulting his other guests.  

Bad manners IMO are reserved for those who were punks and bullies in high school.

Back on topic... Yes, boat prices are still crazy high, and I don't suspect that will change much until fall.  But I could be wrong... 

[rennis]

16 hours ago, The Hulk said:

Some car mfgs just launched 0% financing on new 22 models..  

There are a small handful of deals that good and they are for 36 month loans.  The only vehicle that's likely to appeal to anyone on this forum at a low interest rate right now is a Ford Explorer at 0%.  On a 36 month loan. The other low interest loans are low-buck commuters.  Most of the deals are cash back deals which are bogus anyway. 

We start seeing 0% for 60 months on full size trucks, then they will have my attention.  I'm guessing we are not going to see that any time soon though.

Anyway, a quick search of craigslist this weekend and used boat inventory is probably lower right now than it was the last two years at this time.  The cupboard is still bare.  I'm not seeing deals anywhere yet out here.  

Edited March 14, 2023 by rennis