Used Boat Prices Falling

[jjackkrash]

Just checking in after a few months.   So I assume the sky has fallen? 

[The Hulk]

10 minutes ago, jjackkrash said:

Just checking in after a few months.   So I assume the sky has fallen? 

Haha not yet..  getting cloudy! 

[spikew919]

Buckle up more rate hikes coming. Anyone that didn’t see this coming is blind and or naive. 

[Steve B.]

1 hour ago, spikew919 said:

Buckle up more rate hikes coming. Anyone that didn’t see this coming is blind and or naive. 

Is it going to slow sales? Even one unit?

[spikew919]

5 hours ago, Steve B. said:

Is it going to slow sales? Even one unit?

Yes

[smuurph84]

On 2/28/2023 at 6:27 PM, The Hulk said:

Haha not yet..  getting cloudy! 

slow moving storm but for sure those clouds are getting darker......

[rennis]

I don't think SVIB is going to be financing any boat purchases anytime soon

[boardjnky4]

What are the rates like on boat loans right now. Double digits yet?

[JMaddogT]

32 minutes ago, boardjnky4 said:

What are the rates like on boat loans right now. Double digits yet?

 

I am in the process of buying a 2022 left over and got a rate of 6.99%. Obviously not as low as in years past but not as bad as I thought it was going to be. 

[Slurpee]

58 minutes ago, JMaddogT said:

 

I am in the process of buying a 2022 left over and got a rate of 6.99%. Obviously not as low as in years past but not as bad as I thought it was going to be. 

I shopped around and started with my regular lendor and got 7.25% and negotiated down to 7.125%.  My dealer was able to offer 6.99% and I signed that loan paperwork yesterday.  I was only looking to borrow in the $25k-$50k range.  I got the impression larger principles would get a little bit lower.  This was on a new 2023 btw, so maybe not relevant to this thread.  But hey, it's a loan rate.

Edited March 10, 2023 by Slurpee

[The Hulk]

SVB... More to come... 

You know how many businesses and higher net worth people right now are looking at transferring assets greater than FDIC protection 250/500k?  Yikes... . Do you know how many bankers right now are working double time to convince their high net worth businesses to keep their cash in the bank crazy!! Uncle Sam better step in or it's gonna get ugly real quick. 

Could be good for smaller banks going to be terrible for bigger banks if the contagion spreads as long as they're not highly exposed to auto/RV/boat loans as defaults rise.. although a lot of Small credit unions are highly exposed to auto loans ... going to be bad for them soon sitting on a bunch of repos. 

 

 

 

 

[tlisotta]

I agree - more to come.  Powell has his hands full on what to do next.  No way it will be a .5 and still risking a .25.  Will be interesting to see how many new surf boats sell in the next month or so.  Watching closely.  Should impact new and used market but time will tell.  WIll also be interesting if the mfg (like Malibu) will offer incentives to move new boats if the slow down occurs.   

Edited March 11, 2023 by tlisotta

[The Hulk]

41 minutes ago, tlisotta said:

I agree - more to come.  Powell has his hands full on what to do next.  No way it will be a .5 and still risking a .25.  Will be interesting to see how many new surf boats sell in the next month or so.  Watching closely.  Should impact new and used market but time will tell.  WIll also be interesting if the mfg (like Malibu) will offer incentives to move new boats if the slow down occurs.   

Seems your aware of the talks going on at bu currently 😜

[Steve B.]

Will be interesting to see what the effects of higher interest rates will do with the used market. If some folks are deterred to buy new, will that pump up the value of late model, lower hour boats?

Maybe the folks that bough a year or so ago are really sitting well on value. Wild market.

Steve B.

[spikew919]

[The Hulk]

8 minutes ago, Steve B. said:

Will be interesting to see what the effects of higher interest rates will do with the used market. If some folks are deterred to buy new, will that pump up the value of late model, lower hour boats?

Maybe the folks that bough a year or so ago are really sitting well on value. Wild market.

Steve B.

Keep in mind the majority of boaters Do not remain boaters within a 5-year period.. And we sold record number of boats actuall the majority of boats to "new"  boat owners within the past 5 years...  IMO well see this hit hard in about 9-18mo timeframe.. majority of these people financed 20 years.. going to be hard to justify that payment as inflation kills average Joe

 

[Pnwrider]

5 hours ago, The Hulk said:

SVB... More to come... 

You know how many businesses and higher net worth people right now are looking at transferring assets greater than FDIC protection 250/500k?  Yikes... . Do you know how many bankers right now are working double time to convince their high net worth businesses to keep their cash in the bank crazy!! Uncle Sam better step in or it's gonna get ugly real quick. 

Could be good for smaller banks going to be terrible for bigger banks if the contagion spreads as long as they're not highly exposed to auto/RV/boat loans as defaults rise.. although a lot of Small credit unions are highly exposed to auto loans ... going to be bad for them soon sitting on a bunch of repos. 

More to come… such as? Typical hulk, use a one off, tech/vc heavy bank to say the sky is falling. They had already lost billions in market cap over the last year. Not that surprising considering who they cater to. Plus, a lot of this could have been avoided had those that used this bank for financing, kept their deposits there instead of bailing when they needed deposits most. I remember the last large bank to fail (I worked for them briefly) and these circumstances are way different. 

[spikew919]

Everyone needs to calm down, the US government has an endless supply of money.  They will definitely fix this before anyone goes under from their own bad business practices. 😆😆

[The Hulk]

9 hours ago, Pnwrider said:

More to come… such as? Typical hulk, use a one off, tech/vc heavy bank to say the sky is falling. They had already lost billions in market cap over the last year. Not that surprising considering who they cater to. Plus, a lot of this could have been avoided had those that used this bank for financing, kept their deposits there instead of bailing when they needed deposits most. I remember the last large bank to fail (I worked for them briefly) and these circumstances are way different. 

quickly raising interest rates hikes is going to cause further mismatch in baanking balances sheet assets being devalued from their previous low rates 

[The Hulk]

There needs to be an increase on FDIC protection over 250k especially for small business.. kind of ridiculous in 2023... 

You guys have no clue how many people have wire transfer set for Monday morning nationwide

They need to make an announcement tonight or there's going to be a nationwide problem very quickly..

Literally everyone I know with over 250K in an account has a wire transfer set for Monday especially in California.. what a hassle for small businesses with a few mill+. 

 

There needs to be an announcement ASAP that all deposits are insured for the entire nation or contagion will spread and regional banks will start to collapse as deposits leave. As deposits leave they are no longer marked to market, and as interest rates rise that furthers more banks into similar situations. 

 

A top 20 bank just failed folks. 2nd largest ever.. nothing to see here ha. 

 

Every banker in America currently knows this is already no longer just a one off problem in California.. we're already starting to see the failure spread to others just a matter of who the next domino is if the Fed doesn't come in and make a press announcement Sunday night to back all depositors everywhere. Simple solution doesn't cost anything.. 

 

Regional business banks are panicking right now.. 

Edited March 12, 2023 by The Hulk

[CDAWake]

[ahopkins22LSV]

Over / under on actual data from reputable sources ever being posted?

[The Hulk]

1 hour ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

Over / under on actual data from reputable sources ever being posted?

Well they came to the rescue a few minutes ago..

Over under? you must not have seen my chart above.. as of 30mins ago on the other side of the country, authorities just closed signature bank in NY.. 

With all the wire transfers set Monday more banks will fall out of obligation thus the immediate action needed from yellen as ppl run to JPM in droves.. they put a $25b backstop that's currently expected to hit $2T.. should be interesting considering only 1.26% of $22T national bank deposits are currently FDIC protected.. yikes 

 

 

 

 

[ahopkins22LSV]

4 minutes ago, The Hulk said:

Well they came to the rescue a few minutes ago..

Over under? you must not have seen my chart above.. as of 30mins ago on the other side of the country, authorities just closed signature bank in NY.. 

With all the wire transfers set Monday more banks will fall out of obligation thus the immediate action needed from yellen as ppl run to JPM in droves.. they put a $25b backstop that's currently expected to hit $2T.. should be interesting considering only 1.26% of $22T national bank deposits are currently FDIC protected.. yikes 

 

 

 

 

You completely failed to mention why the bank failed or why everyone moved their money. It was because SVB sold billions of bonds at a loss to reinvest, for reasons to build confidence in their clients. But it had the exact opposite effect and everyone moved their money out. How does that compare to other banks in the US. Who else is doing that? Don’t paint a very specific instance with a giant brush to the rest of the banks and economy. One chart snipped from an article is evidence to nothing. 

[justgary]

1 hour ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

Over / under on actual data from reputable sources ever being posted?

 

7 minutes ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

You completely failed to mention why the bank failed or why everyone moved their money.

Oh.  I thought you meant the coming recession....

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/12/3-recession-indicators-havent-been-wrong-56-years/