Used Boat Prices Falling

[Carguy08]

Screw it my new Axis is being Built.  I thought the money was reasonable on the boat new.    At least I thought.  

[granddaddy55]

19 hours ago, Carguy08 said:

Screw it my new Axis is being Built.  I thought the money was reasonable on the boat new.    At least I thought.  

always be happy with what you pay vs what others paid or others opinions

[ahopkins22LSV]

21 hours ago, Carguy08 said:

Screw it my new Axis is being Built.  I thought the money was reasonable on the boat new.    At least I thought.  

Congratulations! And this post reminded me, there are only three times I think of my boats price. When I’m building it, when I sign for it and when I sell it. All other time is just happy times!

[Carguy08]

3 hours ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

Congratulations! And this post reminded me, there are only three times I think of my boats price. When I’m building it, when I sign for it and when I sell it. All other time is just happy times!

So true.   

[Steve B.]

For the type of luxury item these boats are their re-sale value at almost any age is amazing. Just wondering, if loan rates keep rising, will that make used boats prices/value stay high or go higher?

Steve B.

[rennis]

12 hours ago, Steve B. said:

For the type of luxury item these boats are their re-sale value at almost any age is amazing.

This!  Congrats to Carguy08!  He just spent Escalade money on a new boat.  But the guys who bought Escalades this year (almost all over MSRP) will have a salvage value asset in 10 years (at best, and if it lasts that long), and Carguy08 will have a boat worth probably something close to what he paid for it in 2023. 

[Carguy08]

11 hours ago, rennis said:

This!  Congrats to Carguy08!  He just spent Escalade money on a new boat.  But the guys who bought Escalades this year (almost all over MSRP) will have a salvage value asset in 10 years (at best, and if it lasts that long), and Carguy08 will have a boat worth probably something close to what he paid for it in 2023.

Thank you.  This is the  the reason I haven't sold a single Escalade over msrp.  I want to welcome the customer back with open arms in 3 years for their next one, not run and hide cause I screwed em.  Like hopefully ill be back to the same dealer for my next one.  I have a feeling Im going to enjoy this boat.  

Edited December 16, 2022 by Carguy08

[mxmark4]

Why ate escalades goin over msrp? Demand? I put down a deposit on a boat this week but I am kinda getting cold feet honestly. When he sent me over the deal sheet I guess I got a bit of sticker shock. Still looking for the right boat for us, just not totally sold if this is it. It has all the boxes checked as far as what I want except surf pipe, but when I check only i boards and see what others have sold for I feel Im paying more than I should. Guess I am gonna have to roll up my sleeves and get my negotiation skills up to par when I go water test it next week. 

[rennis]

9 minutes ago, mxmark4 said:

Why ate escalades goin over msrp? Demand? I put down a deposit on a boat this week but I am kinda getting cold feet honestly. When he sent me over the deal sheet I guess I got a bit of sticker shock. Still looking for the right boat for us, just not totally sold if this is it. It has all the boxes checked as far as what I want except surf pipe, but when I check only i boards and see what others have sold for I feel Im paying more than I should. Guess I am gonna have to roll up my sleeves and get my negotiation skills up to par when I go water test it next week. 

I think in many (most?) markets for a big stretch of 2021 and 2022 'Lades were going for over MSRP, sometimes well over MSRP.  Dealers were paying each other over MSRP on wholesale markets, no joke.  It was insane to me.  A dealer near me is now sitting on two 2022 Escalades they paid >MSRP for earlier this summer and they can't sell them.  When they do, it will be at a loss. 

[mxmark4]

31 minutes ago, rennis said:

I think in many (most?) markets for a big stretch of 2021 and 2022 'Lades were going for over MSRP, sometimes well over MSRP.  Dealers were paying each other over MSRP on wholesale markets, no joke.  It was insane to me.  A dealer near me is now sitting on two 2022 Escalades they paid >MSRP for earlier this summer and they can't sell them.  When they do, it will be at a loss. 

Ouch!  And to think here I am wallowing in self pity because I dont wanna pay 80k for a surf boat. Would hate to think I bought at the height of this mess and paid msrp or higher. 

[Jhucke]

1 hour ago, mxmark4 said:

Ouch!  And to think here I am wallowing in self pity because I dont wanna pay 80k for a surf boat. Would hate to think I bought at the height of this mess and paid msrp or higher. 

Boats and cars are one thing, imagine if you dropped money on peak priced homes. At least you might have gotten a great interest rate, probably the only saving grace.

[oldjeep]

3 hours ago, Jhucke said:

Boats and cars are one thing, imagine if you dropped money on peak priced homes. At least you might have gotten a great interest rate, probably the only saving grace.

Yup, those are the really big losers.  Folks who paid 500k for a 300k house with minimum down and a 30 year note.

[mxmark4]

3 hours ago, oldjeep said:

Yup, those are the really big losers.  Folks who paid 500k for a 300k house with minimum down and a 30 year note.

Good thing the housing market is so steong and values arent dropping! 

[oldjeep]

3 minutes ago, mxmark4 said:

Good thing the housing market is so steong and values arent dropping! 

They are around here, which is a good thing since my youngest is in the market.

[The Hulk]

Overpayment has come to a stop.. try building new though.. crazy$$$.. Used homes will keep their value so long as the shortage remains for years to come at least until enough rental/apartment etc are built.  it hasn't become cheaper to make new ones by any means.. And new prices help inflate used prices same as the boating market 

Keep in mind people are happy about 7+% inflation now for some reason which still halves you money in less than 10yrs, and we all know the real rate is higher..  On the right track albeit in all the wrong ways at the cost of jobs and the economy.

Boats are going to play out different than homes though as people don't need boats.. that's the first to go when someone needs to keep a home . 

Home prices will drop from their overpriced peaks when rates were real negative..but I don't see them coming down to their pre covid levels for the simple fact people who do own a home can't even afford to downgrade now so why sell.. inventory to hit market will just be reduced limiting supply as most folks can no longer come close to buying an equivalent let alone upgrade.

Home affordability will just get worse.. Look no further than every other country on planet earth to realize we still today even have very low cost of homes on per Capita income basis and pe sqft of home. Multiply your home by 3-8X and that's the rest of the worlds reality. No chance to own.. We're quickly heading towards a renter nation though more like the rest of the world. 

 

maybe we should be a wake boat rental nation? 😂  But only if you can rent at less than the cost to own! 😂

 

[Bluefishcay]

Due to the shortage of housing I don’t expect housing values to crash as hard as 08.  The higher interest rates mean people can’t afford as expensive a house, so values will have to come down some.   Payments need to be the same as wages have not increased as fast.  Those who bought at the peak and low rates will probably be ok if they can hold the property for a few years.  

Edited December 20, 2022 by Bluefishcay

[shawndoggy]

Home equity only really matters when you sell.  Till then you need a roof over your head.  If the monthly payment worked when you borrowed the money, it should work next year too.

[jjackkrash]

REITs are in the single family home market now a lot more than they used to be.  "Build to rent" is an increasingly popular model.  If rents cover the leverage whether individuals can cover a new mortgage becomes less relevant the more the market is dominated by commercial operators.   There will be more downward price pressure if rents can't cover the leverage, but if rents stay high I suspect so will housing prices.      

[Hemmy]

On 12/16/2022 at 11:07 PM, The Hulk said:

try building new though.. crazy$$$..

 

I am finding that out real quick.  Not a home, but I am in the beginning process of building a new 70k sqft building.  The costs blew me away.

[mrothwell]

On 12/16/2022 at 7:27 PM, mxmark4 said:

Good thing the housing market is so steong and values arent dropping! 

In the more inflated areas, homes are dropping fast.  I live in what has been considered one of the most inflated areas in the nation, home prices are down 18% since May.  I expect them to go down another 20 to 30.  Even if they do, they will still be higher price than 5 years ago.

 

[oldjeep]

1 hour ago, mrothwell said:

In the more inflated areas, homes are dropping fast.  I live in what has been considered one of the most inflated areas in the nation, home prices are down 18% since May.  I expect them to go down another 20 to 30.  Even if they do, they will still be higher price than 5 years ago.

 

Even in the townhouse brackets here, prices are dropping relatively quickly even though there is not a lot of inventory.  This makes me very happy since my daughter is looking for a place - has a good down payment, recession proof job and can close pretty much any time she wants since she live with us.

[The Hulk]

11 hours ago, Hemmy said:

I am finding that out real quick.  Not a home, but I am in the beginning process of building a new 70k sqft building.  The costs blew me away.

Signed on 20k sqft last Dec.. cost are +20% since when I signed overall, and concrete is +30% ..well if u can even get it.. 

Appraisal came in at 60% of cost. No joke. so I got a new one same thing.. both said there Just aren't any comps.. duh. That's why I'm building.. All the comps were from four and five years ago and pole construction from 1950..give me a break. Problem is now all banks are arbitrageing their risk through their "board approved appraisers" so shop around on banks and good luck.. I'd get everything possible you can in the quote up front before appraisal. In our situation we had to sign end of December because beginning of January the next week steel was going up 20% increase and concrete as well.. so we signed on the shell then some finishings we're worked out and that surely didn't help on appraisal. 

 just a shell with some bare bones maybe a few offices is min $85-95/sqft basically unfinished.. add anything and your easily in the 110-130/sqft for turn key warehouse+ office .. This sounded more like house pricing instead of warehouse pricing but the appraiser actually told me this is very normal $110-130 right now and is what some very large places/companies are spending but they couldn't comp those because they were bigger than mine ..no joke.. I said larger facilities mean less per square foot and they're paying more? And they don't count cuz they're bigger than mine?.. yup.. .. wow

FYI a 75ksqt new const. Shell is going for 5.7+M nearby (no doors/windows, no loading dock, no sprinkler system, no asphalt/parking yet literally everything is build to suit, Just a very bare bones shell/ at $75/sqft.. and that is what appraisals are saying finished should be in our area.. what a joke 

Our builder said finally steel prices have gone flat this month, however labor/tradesman rates continue to rise. Some materials are dropping a bit others are still increasing.

Go price a garage door u can't believe it! How about warhouse windows 3*12ft=$7.8k each Unbelievable! We looked for for 2yrs but due to the national warehouse shortage there was nothing and had to build.. 

Our current facility never went to market and is selling at 4* what we paid 8yrs ago if that says where industrial/warhouse prices have gone.

All I can say is it's been a nightmare prepare to pony up 1/3 in cash or more as a lenders will only loan 80% loan appraisal value and they are strategically asking appraisers to reduce risk currently while at the same time appraisers have not caught up to current prices.. Just the national data alone says construction prices have gone up +17% in 2022 alone, not to mention way more than that in 2021.

I was thinking as housing starts soften concrete price may go down but I've talked to several concrete guys and they all think the price is going to remain at least this level or higher over the next year. Hard for me to believe that but they said due to the shortages and raw materials and also the crazy demand between some of these huge Fab facilities across the country large warehouses going up and don't forget BBB has lots of $ to be spent still.. got me.. 

That's what'll be interesting with the boat market people complain about the new prices being so much higher but to build anything these days is astronomically higher than what it was just a short while ago.. 

 

Well sorry to give u a good ol hulk rant ha, good luck! 

[The Hulk]

7 hours ago, mrothwell said:

In the more inflated areas, homes are dropping fast.  I live in what has been considered one of the most inflated areas in the nation, home prices are down 18% since May.  I expect them to go down another 20 to 30.  Even if they do, they will still be higher price than 5 years ago.

 

I saw something that said we would need a national -40% drop to get anywhere near a 08 problem vs the equity people have now + their low 2-3.5% rates that almost everyone has..  I think that was a -40% of pre covid values that simply won't happen due to inflation alone and new construction prices. People are fine on mortgages and payments.. ppl just won't sell. many banks have lowered from 7.25% down to 6.5% already as they obviously can't sell their loan products. Some local banks are now offering 4.5% + 1 free refi within 5yrs thought that was interesting.. would be interested to know closing costs haha. 

 

cars especially used cars now that's a different story.. this could get very ugly quick. 

 

 

 

[Slayer]

11 hours ago, The Hulk said:

Signed on 20k sqft last Dec.. cost are +20% since when I signed overall, and concrete is +30% ..well if u can even get it.. 

Appraisal came in at 60% of cost. No joke. so I got a new one same thing.. both said there Just aren't any comps.. duh. That's why I'm building.. All the comps were from four and five years ago and pole construction from 1950..give me a break. Problem is now all banks are arbitrageing their risk through their "board approved appraisers" so shop around on banks and good luck.. I'd get everything possible you can in the quote up front before appraisal. In our situation we had to sign end of December because beginning of January the next week steel was going up 20% increase and concrete as well.. so we signed on the shell then some finishings we're worked out and that surely didn't help on appraisal. 

 just a shell with some bare bones maybe a few offices is min $85-95/sqft basically unfinished.. add anything and your easily in the 110-130/sqft for turn key warehouse+ office .. This sounded more like house pricing instead of warehouse pricing but the appraiser actually told me this is very normal $110-130 right now and is what some very large places/companies are spending but they couldn't comp those because they were bigger than mine ..no joke.. I said larger facilities mean less per square foot and they're paying more? And they don't count cuz they're bigger than mine?.. yup.. .. wow

FYI a 75ksqt new const. Shell is going for 5.7+M nearby (no doors/windows, no loading dock, no sprinkler system, no asphalt/parking yet literally everything is build to suit, Just a very bare bones shell/ at $75/sqft.. and that is what appraisals are saying finished should be in our area.. what a joke 

Our builder said finally steel prices have gone flat this month, however labor/tradesman rates continue to rise. Some materials are dropping a bit others are still increasing.

Go price a garage door u can't believe it! How about warhouse windows 3*12ft=$7.8k each Unbelievable! We looked for for 2yrs but due to the national warehouse shortage there was nothing and had to build.. 

Our current facility never went to market and is selling at 4* what we paid 8yrs ago if that says where industrial/warhouse prices have gone.

All I can say is it's been a nightmare prepare to pony up 1/3 in cash or more as a lenders will only loan 80% loan appraisal value and they are strategically asking appraisers to reduce risk currently while at the same time appraisers have not caught up to current prices.. Just the national data alone says construction prices have gone up +17% in 2022 alone, not to mention way more than that in 2021.

I was thinking as housing starts soften concrete price may go down but I've talked to several concrete guys and they all think the price is going to remain at least this level or higher over the next year. Hard for me to believe that but they said due to the shortages and raw materials and also the crazy demand between some of these huge Fab facilities across the country large warehouses going up and don't forget BBB has lots of $ to be spent still.. got me.. 

That's what'll be interesting with the boat market people complain about the new prices being so much higher but to build anything these days is astronomically higher than what it was just a short while ago.. 

 

Well sorry to give u a good ol hulk rant ha, good luck! 

I don't see concrete pricing going down anytime soon.  The demand is insane and many regions are still rationing concrete because of a portland cement shortage.  I see that shortage being mitigated in the coming months, but that doesn't directly reduce the cost to market.  Labor cost is on the rise because the availability of labor is declining.  Perhaps not availability, but more appropriately labor willing to get their butts to work.  Steel has flattened out a bit, but is still very high.  Lumber has done the same and remains high.  Availability of certain types of steel has become less time sensitive as Amazon and others have pulled back on the construction of distribution facilities which were consuming the capacity for certain shapes, joists, and joist girders.  These members are now available in what our industry recognizes as "typical" fabrication and delivery lead times.

There are many other construction materials that are still fluctuating regularly and I'm not sure when that will change.  As for commodity and raw material pricing.....well.....time will tell on that and none of us have the all illusive crystal ball. 

[The Hulk]

2 hours ago, Slayer said:

I don't see concrete pricing going down anytime soon.  The demand is insane and many regions are still rationing concrete because of a portland cement shortage.  I see that shortage being mitigated in the coming months, but that doesn't directly reduce the cost to market.  Labor cost is on the rise because the availability of labor is declining.  Perhaps not availability, but more appropriately labor willing to get their butts to work.  Steel has flattened out a bit, but is still very high.  Lumber has done the same and remains high.  Availability of certain types of steel has become less time sensitive as Amazon and others have pulled back on the construction of distribution facilities which were consuming the capacity for certain shapes, joists, and joist girders.  These members are now available in what our industry recognizes as "typical" fabrication and delivery lead times.

There are many other construction materials that are still fluctuating regularly and I'm not sure when that will change.  As for commodity and raw material pricing.....well.....time will tell on that and none of us have the all illusive crystal ball. 

@Slayer labor ... exactly!  Trade/skill labor is in very short supply for those "willing" to do it or show up to work. Many predict this skilled labor shortage will persist for decades. lets hope not but i dont see to many younger folks on job sites these days or entering the workforce for trade work.