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Used Boat Prices Falling


Wakeskate77

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6 hours ago, klntime said:

Maybe they are piviting.  Possibly total unit sales down from what they were projecting and decided to increase margins 

 

Just a thought

 

 

Sure, I get the math. But if you follow the gentlemen in Louden much, you know that they value market share (aka volume) over all else.  I don't believe they'd push through a price increase if they felt it would impact volumes.  They are obviously bullish.  

If you listen to their most recent earnings call, they specifically point out that their demographic is typically the last impacted in a recession.  That's the difference between the wakeboard market and the RV market.  

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8 hours ago, IXFE said:

Eh... it's almost November. Slow sales and building up inventory is actually normal for this time of year.  What will be telling is what happens at ETS in a few weeks and Boat Show in January.  

If things were so bad, why did Malibu just impose a mid-year price increase? 

So it doesn't look so bad when they do it 10% discount haha 😂😂

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5 hours ago, jjackkrash said:

I have had an order in for a Ski N for 18 months and still don't have a build slot.  Hopefully all three manufacturers see the folly of this silly wake boat fad and pivot back to building more Ski boats.  :)  

🤔 Surprised they even offer a ski boat anymore is it even worth the investment anymore in new models or let alone production? It's sad for sure.. but as a mfg is it even worth it anymore the market is Low single digits at best? Curious on numbers if otherwise.

Industry has changed.. for better or worse depending on your sport..  

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What needs determined is the trend line if there is one for our industry.. like many things we went waaay above trend the past few years pulled several years of demand forward with COVID and near zero rates and quickly inflating prices.. we will have to go below the trend line for a few years now, no doubt.. but as the trend was increasing there will be argument to if the below trend is above or higher than the pre covid numbers.. example if we drop 30-35% are we still technically at similar to pre COVID.. or  below which historically makes sense.. the past few years was realistically not sustainable in any regards.. 

 

My argument is dealers + mfgs are going to get shlacked if they order or produce like they have the past few years... Because those customers were pulled fwd and now folks are NOT going to be eager at current rates let alone prices 

Boat mfgs will be exactly same as the RV/auto industry and will quickly figure out their price hikes will end up being discounts in the next 6-9mo with indefinite layoffs. 

Realistically fed can't hit 2% inflation without a depression.. we're looking at a sustained 4-6% inflation for the next half decade. Considering that and rates being sustainably higher demand will take a major hit. Mfgs /dealers will have to adjust for margins and not qty. Basically a little below the trend line until energy and labor crisis are resolved in 4-7yrs for the next boom 

 

 

 

 

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 @IXFEIS finally back! I knew I could get him back! Haha 

 

Interesting Malibu's capture of the covid market is pathetic.. Salt is more reflective of Many brands. 

Yes IMO Malibu made a major mistake not buying a pontoon company.. crazy growth in the sector.. probably one of the highest growing sectors of the market.. they should have bought Barletta they're taking everybody's lunch money now.. 

cobalt.  Ehh that market has a lot of comp and the larger these wake boats get the more we cut into that market/customer. ie 27-6 lsv. I still support Larger yet! 

Salt . Dang they need to throw a fuel on the fire!!! Plus with IAN damage.. lots of new insurances claim potential buyers 

I'll be honest I cannot believe Malibu did not capture more over the past few years.. I know there was a lot of problems with fiberglass and supply chain issues but man they missed out on a lot of gains.. basically still following trend line.. agree that price hikes are supported by this 

Talking with several dealers that are reducing quantities perhaps it is just a matter of going back to the normal" just in time"  versus the past few years of buy it just in case? Floor plans are going to cost a whole heck of a lot more than they used to though so dealers will get a lot more selective or cautious.... 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, RyanB said:

How many boats were lost to the recent hurricane?  I’m sure that will prop the market up for a while as well. 

Yes you're talking thousands of boats that are damaged at the minimum it could be the lifeline the industry needs but it will be concentrated into the style of boats used in that market.. I know docks and boat lifts are already 2 years out currently.. crazy.. just not enough resources or labor.. 

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2 hours ago, The Hulk said:

 @IXFEIS finally back! I knew I could get him back! Haha 

 

Interesting Malibu's capture of the covid market is pathetic.. Salt is more reflective of Many brands. 

Yes IMO Malibu made a major mistake not buying a pontoon company.. crazy growth in the sector.. probably one of the highest growing sectors of the market.. they should have bought Barletta they're taking everybody's lunch money now.. 

cobalt.  Ehh that market has a lot of comp and the larger these wake boats get the more we cut into that market/customer. ie 27-6 lsv. I still support Larger yet! 

Salt . Dang they need to throw a fuel on the fire!!! Plus with IAN damage.. lots of new insurances claim potential buyers 

I'll be honest I cannot believe Malibu did not capture more over the past few years.. I know there was a lot of problems with fiberglass and supply chain issues but man they missed out on a lot of gains.. basically still following trend line.. agree that price hikes are supported by this 

Talking with several dealers that are reducing quantities perhaps it is just a matter of going back to the normal" just in time"  versus the past few years of buy it just in case? Floor plans are going to cost a whole heck of a lot more than they used to though so dealers will get a lot more selective or cautious.... 

 

 

 

 

 

I think it’s safe to assume Malibu built every unit they could over the past 2.5 years. It’s not like their competition did better. I’m fairly sure they didn’t lose market share. 

Very solid point about flooring plans. I hadn’t thought about that.  
 

Watching volumes over the next few quarters is going to tell us a lot. I wanted to pull the volume by quarter, but Malibu doesn’t publish that, only annual volume (in the annual report). However, if you listen closely they “voice over” quarterly volumes in each earnings call. I really want to see if the growth rate slows down. 

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5 hours ago, IXFE said:

A lot to unpack here, but let's just focus on MBUU volumes and revenues.  I've created a table to help the discussion. 

1966085259_Screenshot2022-10-23170442.thumb.png.483c3b1d22c61cdb2ebdadecd74c10ab.png 

A few things jump out to me re: volumes:

  • Malibu/Axis grew volume 6% in MY18 and 12% in MY19.  That proves growth was accelerating before the pandemic and had reached double digits (pretty incredible run they were on and a big part of why the stock was > $80/share a few weeks before Covid).  
  • Obviously MY20 was down, primarily because the factory was closed for a month.  Even at full capacity, there would be no way to recover that volume within the year.  Add to that parts and labor shortages, which hit immediately after coming back, and the result is they gave back all of MY19's growth.  That equates to a lot of unfulfilled demand (surely you remember all the whining on this forum back then)
  • In MY21 you see the result of a factory back at full production + catching up on unfulfilled demand from MY20 = 22% growth. But look at the raw number... not even 300 boats more than MY19, two years earlier!  I have a hard time believing this 22% was "pull forward" as you suggest.  It's more likely slippage from MY20!  And even with 22% growth, they still were not even back to pre-pandemic levels.  Remember, they grew 6% in MY18 and 12% in MY19.  Throw out the 12% to be conservative and do the "what if" math on just 6% growth in MY20, MY21, MY22.... okay, I did it for you: MY20 would have been 4,820 (i.e. what they actually did in MY21), MY21 would have been 5,109 (i.e. about what they did in MY22), and MY22 would have been 5,415 ( + 243 over what they actually did)  So you see, Malibu/Axis is not ahead on volume as you suggest... they are still a year behind!  So tell me again, where's this "pull forward" you speak of?  If you want to have some fun, go do that math assuming 10% growth each year (remember they did 12% in MY19)... they would now be at over 6,000 units per year! 
  • Even if you suggest MY19's 12% is an outlier, the CAGR over the last 5 years is 6%.  Isn't it interesting this 5-year stretch is book-ended by 6% and 7% (with the pandemic and recover in between). That would suggest we're back to normal now (i.e mid-single digit growth).  Again, I'm not seeing the "pull forward" you're suggesting.  
  • What is "pull forward" anyway, as it relates to wakeboats?  Are we supposed to believe that some family bought a wakeboard in 2020 that wouldn't have otherwise bought one until 2023?  Ummm, okay.  I guess.  Maybe anecdotally that happened here or there, but it's not showing up in the data.  Maybe the pandemic brought some new families into boating, but I wouldn't call that "pull forward;" that's just good old fashioned expansion!  And who's to say when they would have bought in the future or if they would have at all? Either way, it's not showing up in the data.  
  • All that said, I'm not suggesting volume won't flatten out or even shrink in MY23.  I'm just saying it won't be because of what happened the last three years.  If it happens, it will be because of interest rates and gas prices (to a lesser extent). In some markets there are also more restrictions on wakeboats now (is it even legal to own one in Portland anymore?). 
  • Just for fun, look at Cobalt... that's a brand they've got to be concerned about... volume tanked hard in MY20 and hasn't recovered at all. Did Covid help people realize that stern drives just aren't as fun as v-drives?  I wonder if MBUU wishes they bought a toon company instead. 
  • Now look at the salt fishing boats. You can ignore MY21 because that's the year they bough Maverik, but look at MY22... 43% organic growth and these boats are NOT cheap! To @RyanB's good point... I wonder how many were lost to Isaac.  Could be a big year for the Salt Fishing division!

That's all on volume, now look at Revenue growth vs. Volume growth. This is REALLY interesting

  • Look at volume growth each year vs. revenue growth (starting in MY19): 11/38, -15/-5, 14/42, 7/31... what does that tell you?  MBUU revenue growth is driven more by average selling price (ASP) than by volume... by a wide margin.  
  • Malibu execs regularly speak publicly about market share, it's clearly a priority. They work hard to keep that factory FULL. That's important context when thinking about the price increases.  
  • While there are other factors to ASP than just price increases (brand/model mix, option take rate, etc), we've all felt the impact of price increases over the years (double digits each of the last two years). A mid-year price move is pretty bold, especially given the anticipation of a slow down. To me that signals they are still seeing strong demand (for factory builds) and don't anticipate any slowdown in volume at the factory. What happens at the dealers is another story, but Malibu was needing to build channel inventory; this is regularly discussed on the earnings calls also.  Let's not all panic when we see a few dozen boats at our local dealer... that's how it's supposed to be! 
  • Maybe Malibu sees this... unemployment is still near record low and consumer spending is still very strong (per BofA earnings call). Plus, according to Jack on the last earnings call, Malibu customers are the last to feel the impact of any downturn. Seriously, even in a downturn, do you really think it's hard to find 5,000 rich people to buy a status toy?  Very different than the volumes the RV industry would have to move to avoid their own meltdown (which as you point out is already underway).
  • Last point on price increases... if you look at gross margin %, it was 25% in MY22 which is VERY consistent going all the way back to 2013.  What does that mean... the cost to build these boats is growing just as fast as the pricing.  So maybe the latest price increase is required just to cover Malibu's own felt inflation! 

EDIT: This post was exhausting to research and write. I now remember why I rarely do this anymore:cry: It's so much easier just to post opinions and memes. 

What is most insightful of this table is the average cost/boat. In 2018 the average cost is $79k. 2022 is $168k. That’s a 112% increase in 5 years!

the EBITDA only changes by 1 point, so I suspect they are being hit by substantial material and wage inflation.

whoever said that they are driven by volume obviously hasn’t seen this data. If I were running the company I would be more focused on price increases.

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12 hours ago, shawndoggy said:

TLDR

He did say it was exhausting....

Very good analysis, @IXFE.  Thanks.

My local (not Malibu) dealer still can't get any boats, but I have not checked with him in the last month.  Manufacturers continue to focus only on their monster dealers and pie out the little guys.

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10 hours ago, IXFE said:

I think it’s safe to assume Malibu built every unit they could over the past 2.5 years. It’s not like their competition did better. I’m fairly sure they didn’t lose market share. 

Very solid point about flooring plans. I hadn’t thought about that.  
 

Agree I'm just shocked it was not nearly as much as I thought.. perhaps it's the small mfgs and off brands that really benefited due to shortages of the big guys? The industry exploded way more than buu numbers reflect.. salt is on the high.. that's on another level!

Floor plans are going to get a lot more expensive from many factors, price hikes, higher rates, slower moving inventory.. I don't think we'll have a grasp on this until after winter shows.. on the other hand more and more are forgoing shows and doing in house shows.. will be interesting to see if this trend continues or reverts back to boat shows.. 

5000 rich people.. I suppose not that hard but I'd love to know the % of those who financed,  "had to or just did"  because rates were basically free or technically negative instead of just throwing cash down.. I'm willing to bet the majority financed.. so that buyer is going to get a lot less today or will have to shell out a lot more etc.. hard to say.. 5k ppl doesn't seem like a ton.. 

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2 hours ago, The Hulk said:

Agree I'm just shocked it was not nearly as much as I thought.. perhaps it's the small mfgs and off brands that really benefited due to shortages of the big guys? The industry exploded way more than buu numbers reflect.. salt is on the high.. that's on another level!

Floor plans are going to get a lot more expensive from many factors, price hikes, higher rates, slower moving inventory.. I don't think we'll have a grasp on this until after winter shows.. on the other hand more and more are forgoing shows and doing in house shows.. will be interesting to see if this trend continues or reverts back to boat shows.. 

5000 rich people.. I suppose not that hard but I'd love to know the % of those who financed,  "had to or just did"  because rates were basically free or technically negative instead of just throwing cash down.. I'm willing to bet the majority financed.. so that buyer is going to get a lot less today or will have to shell out a lot more etc.. hard to say.. 5k ppl doesn't seem like a ton.. 

Word from my local dealers is most buyers are cash, and always have been.  

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58 minutes ago, hethj7 said:

Word from my local dealers is most buyers are cash, and always have been.  

I guess the question is the source of "cash." Veteran members might remember the demise of dealership juggernauts Copes & McPhetres (Mastercraft) and Ultimate Watersports (Malibu). The dealerships shuttered nearly overnight in part because consumers were suddenly not able to leverage their home equity to finance toys.

 

Although the real estate market seems to be hanging in there, high interest rates certainly make a cash out re-finance much less attractive.

Edited by DRAGON88
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Just talked to a guy who works at Mercury and they are making around 375 outboards a day and can’t keep up with demand.  They can not build stock even at record production rates.   Pontoon mfg are suffering the most as as they can’t sell pontoons without motors.  

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20 hours ago, braindamage said:

What is most insightful of this table is the average cost/boat. In 2018 the average cost is $79k. 2022 is $168k. That’s a 112% increase in 5 years!

the EBITDA only changes by 1 point, so I suspect they are being hit by substantial material and wage inflation.

whoever said that they are driven by volume obviously hasn’t seen this data. If I were running the company I would be more focused on price increases.

I actually pointed this out (don't blame you if you missed it in that novel) when I referenced avg selling price (not avg. cost which is something different and can't be calculated with the data I provided).  Yes, ASP is growing!  I almost included this in the table, but I didn't because it's a bit misleading... the single biggest driver in the growth of avg. selling price are the acquisitions of Pursuit and Maverik (i.e inorganic growth).  True, the ASP of Malibu/Axis has also grown organically (driven by price increases, mix shift to bigger models, and people choosing more options), but the only way to know what that looks like would to isolate Malibu/Axis revenue, which they do not report.  

You are spot on with your EBITDA comment.  It's even more evident if you look at Gross Margin % (not on my table). It's been +/- 25% for 10 years.  In fact, that's the reason I first started the "MBUU by the numbers" thread so long ago... to demonstrate to folks that the price increases (which looking back were really child's play compared to today) were perfectly correlated to the cost to BUILD the boats.  It's simply not the money grab most folks like to imagine.

Your last statement needs refinement, imho.  They absolutely WERE driven by volume (aka market share) until their capacity was constrained and they could no longer play that game (factory closed on 3/24/20 and has never really been the same)... only then did they pivot to price (they actually waited until MY22 pricing released in July 2021), which you and I agree is totally understandable (from a business perspective, even though it sucks as a boat buyer).  

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I feel like if we were to go into a deep recession tommys will go the same way as cope & mcpheters/ultimate watersports the company's seem very similar

Edited by bretcole
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