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State of the Boat Market?


CaptainMorgan

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3 hours ago, shawndoggy said:

Sortof.  Since we have a hybrid pay-as-we-go social security system, some of the funds contributed by current workers will get paid to you in retirement. And I assume that you'll not be turning down medicare (even if paying for supplemental insurance at the same time).

Prolly you can do without the social security, but an extra $30K is an extra $30K, right?  Are you planning to pull sooner or later?  Assume later given your boglehead tendencies?

You got me there, I guess I'm a socialist!  Atlas has shrugged, starting this year.

Given that health care premiums for two healthy adults run about $20,000 per year for the shiny plastic plan (so we pay that premium in order to pay for all of our healthcare, and not much is "in network"), I broke down this year and checked the marketplace.  Our premium is now $588 per month for the same plan.  I am not old enough for The Medicare yet.

It turns out that if you happen to have paid the maximum FICA tax every year for your 35-year work history and delay until age 70 1/2, it is more like $43,000 per year, but who is counting?  I didn't make the rules and I think they are mostly a bad idea, but I have had to play within the limits of the rules so I see no reason to quit now.

Speaking of Bogleheads, I strongly encourage the use of the Variable Percentage Withdrawal worksheet (use the Accumulation tab if you are still working, and the Retirement tab if you aren't).  You don't have to do exactly what it says, but it is a great guideline.  Check it out for yourself....

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=120430

User Longinvest has been running a forward test for almost two years now, and it caught the COVID dip nicely.  We'll see how it weathers this recent pullback.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=284519

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8 hours ago, rennis said:

The economist I respect and trust the most gave a presentation at a conference I was at earlier this week.  He, like many here, is predicting a recession.  He is predicting it to land sometime in 2023.  All signs point to 2022 going strong for GDP despite the rising interest rates and inflation.  He started his presentation by pointing out the Fed should have began the process of fighting inflation long before they actually did here in the first quarter of 2022.  For those of you who bought a boat in 2021 and locked in pricing and financing before the Fed got off their butts and did something smart, congratulations, you dodged a small bullet. 

We aren't going to see a 2008 level downturn; the economic inputs are not the same this time.  That one was driven by the utter collapse of the U.S. housing market driven by deplorable lending practices in the industry, compounded by even worse behavior on wall street and by re-insurers like AGI.  If you haven't read the Big Short, do so.  Then ask yourself if you see the same problems today.  Or I can save you the time and tell you that you simply will not.   I will say that I follow the theory that the U.S. housing market follows a 18 year cycle.  And we've been on a collision course with the year 2024 for a very long time.  If you look at the supply of homes relative to demand and pricing, however, there is simply no way for us to see a housing correction like 2008.  It's not physically or mathematically possible with the assets available.  I think there will be a correction.  But you're not going to be snapping up foreclosed properties for pennies on the dollar at the county court house.  I'd bet a lot of money on that. 

The root problems in our economy are not what many people have been yammering on about for the last three pages.  Most of those are just symptoms.  Gas prices are out of control due to inflation and the war in Ukraine.  If you want to be mad at someone, be mad at Putin.  And the world political leaders who have helped keep him in power for so long, including our own.  Without that we'd be moaning about fuel prices because of inflationary impacts, but nothing like we are because of Putin.  On the other hand he has nukes.  And because he has nukes you're paying $6/gallon to have some fun this summer. First world problems meets real world problems.  

The real problem facing our economy is our workforce.  There are 1.9 job openings for every unemployed American.  Even if we had 0% unemployment we'd have millions of unfilled jobs, across all sectors of the economy.  We. Need. People.  In construction.  In healthcare. In Tech.  In Finance and Accounting. In Manufacturing. Everyone needs more and better people. Everyone everywhere is STRUGGLING to meet the needs of their customers and it starts with the labor force. We need to educate our current citizens and have better policies about immigration that attracts the right people to come to our shores and make this economy hum.  To quote this economist: "We should be building a wall to keep immigrants IN the U.S."  And looking inward, we need to get our young males off their butts, out of their gaming chairs, and back to work.  The most underemployed group of citizens in our country relative to historical averages is young white males.  Facts.  And I see a lot of people who simply enable that bullcrap.  We need to find them ways to be productive in our economy.  It doesn't require a 4 year degree.  It requires some motivation and a passion for doing something productive.  Immigrants and public policy aren't to blame for that:  We Are.  As parents and a society.  Stuff needs to change, and it starts with family and educational opportunities, including vocations.  So vote yes on the school tax levies when they are put to vote. They need more money.  And then get involved and tell your local school board you want to see a shop class offered to high schoolers. 

4.5M Americans quit their jobs in March.  That is a record high and fundamental lunacy if you ask me.  Many left for other jobs, but the turnover is astonishing. Something has to change.

The stock market was so overheated relative to the fundamental drivers of value that anyone with a brain could have predicted that at some point equities would come back down to earth.  I am glad, for one, because we can't afford to have more Boomers retire early. Not until they have passed more knowledge down to other generations of the workforce.  Because frankly they are terrible at it and need a lot more time before most of them call it quits.  This is a fundamental issue facing our country and no one is doing jack about it.

I say address the workforce and jobs situation first and foremost.  The rest is noise/byproduct and there ain't much you or I can do about it anyway.   Fill up that gas tank and let her rip with your families this summer.  And for gosh sakes stop thinking about the economy when you do. 

Who is this secret economist?  

The workforce problem has been building for years, but something seems to be a more rapid change, so I suspect something else has exacerbated the problem...like maybe pouring trillions into the economy.   People are trying to spend that money, and there are too few products and goods, so the cost went up (inflation).  

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2 hours ago, TallRedRider said:

Who is this secret economist?  

The workforce problem has been building for years, but something seems to be a more rapid change, so I suspect something else has exacerbated the problem...like maybe pouring trillions into the economy.   People are trying to spend that money, and there are too few products and goods, so the cost went up (inflation).  

Totally.  Nevertheless, not being an economist, I don't understand how that equates to not being able to find enough people to do the same jobs they were doing before.  I mean it's not like the former McD's drive thru guy is now working the night shift in the xbox factory... or is he?

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2 hours ago, TallRedRider said:

Who is this secret economist?  

The workforce problem has been building for years, but something seems to be a more rapid change, so I suspect something else has exacerbated the problem...like maybe pouring trillions into the economy.   People are trying to spend that money, and there are too few products and goods, so the cost went up (inflation).  

That secret economist 100% abides by the liberal party’s script. That whole post Sounded like CNN every morning. 
 

the housing market will not face a collapse like it did in 08 I agree but look at the consumer credit side this go around. You won’t be able to snatch up a house but all these brand new m240’s that will be hitting the auctions? You bet ya. 

  • Haha 2
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5 hours ago, shawndoggy said:

Totally.  Nevertheless, not being an economist, I don't understand how that equates to not being able to find enough people to do the same jobs they were doing before.  I mean it's not like the former McD's drive thru guy is now working the night shift in the xbox factory... or is he?

Because there are less people in the workforce now than before .. and the population has also gone up... Print free money and benefits.. why work.. As we hit the downturn and demand gets dramatically reduced it will come more in line with available labor. As the slosh money dries up more will be forced to to go back to work.. well unless they do it again.. but even the fed blatantly says they are basically needing to kill demand

  • Like 1
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5 hours ago, ThinBuLine said:

 

the housing market will not face a collapse like it did in 08 I agree but look at the consumer credit side this go around. You won’t be able to snatch up a house but all these brand new m240’s that will be hitting the auctions? You bet ya. 

Can't have a housing crash when there is still a national housing shortage.. inventory will dry up as it's not affordable to upgrade or make moves until material pricing comes down or financing comes down both of which are going up still. I did see lumber futures slide but that hasn't quite hit the shelf yet and majority of other materials haven't dropped yet either.

Consumer credit buble is fast approaching via splurged on items, cars, RVs, boats, remodeling, you name it.. check the Credit card  data, and also car loan data.. deliquency went through the roof similar to all time highs on folks missing payments..

as upper mgt layoffs start over next half of year it's going to get interesting.. ppl are going to get desperate for cash and there will be some deals to be had on luxury toys! 

may have to snatch up a newer Malibu that is right past it's break in period at a discount next year! 

 

Edited by The Hulk
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To your note of the boating market.. i think this year was finished before it started due to backlog and start of the season is next week so most folks have what they want by now.. Now will we continue to see high demand second half of the year like last year.. i think it's dropping quickly as the industry catches up.

Soft deposit/orders/waiting list in all industries are being cancelled and spots freeing up scary fast

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So far the weather has been saving me all sorts of gas money.  Nice weather during the week, and it is 45 this morning.  Ah well, guess I'll fill up the 6 gallon tank on the bike Instead of the 38 in the boat.

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Just now, oldjeep said:

So far the weather has been saving me all sorts of gas money.  Nice weather during the week, and it is 45 this morning.  Ah well, guess I'll fill up the 6 gallon tank on the bike Instead of the 38 in the boat.

Yeah. For the first time since owning a Malibu (11 years) I didn’t ski in April.

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2 minutes ago, braindamage said:

Yeah. For the first time since owning a Malibu (11 years) I didn’t ski in April.

I'm hoping we get out in May;). Boat hasn't left the garage yet this year, and the bikes only have about 1000 miles between them so far.

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28 minutes ago, oldjeep said:

So far the weather has been saving me all sorts of gas money.  Nice weather during the week, and it is 45 this morning.  Ah well, guess I'll fill up the 6 gallon tank on the bike Instead of the 38 in the boat.

Same here. It was 19 degrees at my house this AM. And has been cold every morning and maybe high 50s. We’ve seen maybe 5 days over 70 this year. This time last year it was 90 for three weeks and I was on my boat almost a dozen times before June. 

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2 hours ago, oldjeep said:

So far the weather has been saving me all sorts of gas money.  Nice weather during the week, and it is 45 this morning.  Ah well, guess I'll fill up the 6 gallon tank on the bike Instead of the 38 in the boat.

Ahh the good old days of sub 50 gal boat gas tanks... Haha

Edited by The Hulk
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4 minutes ago, The Hulk said:

Ahh the good old days of sub 50 gal boat gas tanks... Haha

And we only surf one week a year, otherwise it is all ski or wakeboard - that is the real gas saver ;)

Edited by oldjeep
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  • Haha 1
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ahopkins22LSV
22 minutes ago, braindamage said:

the full report has a more moderate tone than just this graph stand alone.

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/05/global-supply-chain-pressure-index-may-2022-update/

Of course it does. At least it was almost data this time instead of just opinion and "I heard". We already knew the supply chain has been completely screwed since Covid hit though.

  • Like 3
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On 5/20/2022 at 1:29 PM, rennis said:

The economist I respect and trust the most gave a presentation at a conference I was at earlier this week.  He, like many here, is predicting a recession.  He is predicting it to land sometime in 2023.  All signs point to 2022 going strong for GDP despite the rising interest rates and inflation.  He started his presentation by pointing out the Fed should have began the process of fighting inflation long before they actually did here in the first quarter of 2022.  For those of you who bought a boat in 2021 and locked in pricing and financing before the Fed got off their butts and did something smart, congratulations, you dodged a small bullet. 

We aren't going to see a 2008 level downturn; the economic inputs are not the same this time.  That one was driven by the utter collapse of the U.S. housing market driven by deplorable lending practices in the industry, compounded by even worse behavior on wall street and by re-insurers like AGI.  If you haven't read the Big Short, do so.  Then ask yourself if you see the same problems today.  Or I can save you the time and tell you that you simply will not.   I will say that I follow the theory that the U.S. housing market follows a 18 year cycle.  And we've been on a collision course with the year 2024 for a very long time.  If you look at the supply of homes relative to demand and pricing, however, there is simply no way for us to see a housing correction like 2008.  It's not physically or mathematically possible with the assets available.  I think there will be a correction.  But you're not going to be snapping up foreclosed properties for pennies on the dollar at the county court house.  I'd bet a lot of money on that. 

The root problems in our economy are not what many people have been yammering on about for the last three pages.  Most of those are just symptoms.  Gas prices are out of control due to inflation and the war in Ukraine.  If you want to be mad at someone, be mad at Putin.  And the world political leaders who have helped keep him in power for so long, including our own.  Without that we'd be moaning about fuel prices because of inflationary impacts, but nothing like we are because of Putin.  On the other hand he has nukes.  And because he has nukes you're paying $6/gallon to have some fun this summer. First world problems meets real world problems.  

The real problem facing our economy is our workforce.  There are 1.9 job openings for every unemployed American.  Even if we had 0% unemployment we'd have millions of unfilled jobs, across all sectors of the economy.  We. Need. People.  In construction.  In healthcare. In Tech.  In Finance and Accounting. In Manufacturing. Everyone needs more and better people. Everyone everywhere is STRUGGLING to meet the needs of their customers and it starts with the labor force. We need to educate our current citizens and have better policies about immigration that attracts the right people to come to our shores and make this economy hum.  To quote this economist: "We should be building a wall to keep immigrants IN the U.S."  And looking inward, we need to get our young males off their butts, out of their gaming chairs, and back to work.  The most underemployed group of citizens in our country relative to historical averages is young white males.  Facts.  And I see a lot of people who simply enable that bullcrap.  We need to find them ways to be productive in our economy.  It doesn't require a 4 year degree.  It requires some motivation and a passion for doing something productive.  Immigrants and public policy aren't to blame for that:  We Are.  As parents and a society.  Stuff needs to change, and it starts with family and educational opportunities, including vocations.  So vote yes on the school tax levies when they are put to vote. They need more money.  And then get involved and tell your local school board you want to see a shop class offered to high schoolers. 

4.5M Americans quit their jobs in March.  That is a record high and fundamental lunacy if you ask me.  Many left for other jobs, but the turnover is astonishing. Something has to change.

The stock market was so overheated relative to the fundamental drivers of value that anyone with a brain could have predicted that at some point equities would come back down to earth.  I am glad, for one, because we can't afford to have more Boomers retire early. Not until they have passed more knowledge down to other generations of the workforce.  Because frankly they are terrible at it and need a lot more time before most of them call it quits.  This is a fundamental issue facing our country and no one is doing jack about it.

I say address the workforce and jobs situation first and foremost.  The rest is noise/byproduct and there ain't much you or I can do about it anyway.   Fill up that gas tank and let her rip with your families this summer.  And for gosh sakes stop thinking about the economy when you do. 

After your recommendation of reading The Big Short, I have done so.  It was a fascinating read.  As a business owner and investor, I encourage all to read or listen to this book.  Great recommendation @rennis Thank you! 

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10 hours ago, TallRedRider said:

I think the supply/demand mismatch is mostly on the demand side of buying things.  So McD's is trying to hire more than before to keep up with the demand.  Same with everyone else.  Many companies had record profits in 2021. 

Here is something that shocks most people: More containers were unloaded in the port of LA in 2021 than in 2019.  Remember all those container ships that couldn't get their stuff unloaded?  It is because there were more containers coming than usual, caused by pumping trillions of unearned income into the economy.  The port was unloading more than they were pre-pandemic, but still could not keep up with demand.  We don't have a supply problem, we have had a demand problem.  

https://www.portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics

And the fed said they will take demand down.. and it is surely going down.. what's to be seen though is the massive backlog from overseas shutdowns and how that will translate into potentially bigger backlogs than last year..

the caviot is that demand destruction is happening at same time so possible it won't be as bad as it could be. .. although Dollar is surging now against foreign currency and US labor and cost are still increasing which leads to more imports..  

Will be interesting

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On 5/21/2022 at 8:32 AM, oldjeep said:

I'm hoping we get out in May;). Boat hasn't left the garage yet this year, and the bikes only have about 1000 miles between them so far.

I know that this is peanuts to the wake barge crowd, but $160 worth of fuel put in today - around 33 gallons of premium.  Most expensive fill I have ever had in the vtx.  But the weather was nice;)

Edited by oldjeep
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4 hours ago, oldjeep said:

I know that this is peanuts to the wake barge crowd, but $160 worth of fuel put in today - around 33 gallons of premium.  Most expensive fill I have ever had in the vtx.  But the weather was nice;)

If it makes you feel any better I just put in 30 gallons and spent $180 today. We had a blast totally worth it, especially when everyone chips in ;)

Edited by anutami
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5.99 on the water here.  Completely anecdotal, but perfect weather yesterday and it seemed less crowded on the water than a normal weekend, much less so than a holiday. 

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