State of the Boat Market?

[The Hulk]

Good ol JP predicts Avg $6 by end of summer ouch; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10833655/Average-gas-price-hits-record-high-4-589.html

don;t doubt it, but hope it doesn't become reality... 

nail in the coffin for RV's, Vaca/travel, etc.. 

[bigskydoc]

1 hour ago, Pnwrider said:

Such as? 

Last week of March the 2 year - 10 year treasury yield inverted

Durable goods excluding defense have slowed and fell in February.  There was some recovery in March, but the trend is down

Equities are in the first inning of a rout that I believe will rival 2008, unless the Fed steps in

Jobs remain strong, but they are slowing.  This is probably the strongest argument against recession, but we will see what happens when manufacturers get squeezed between reduced credit availability (as equities cool), and increased cost of materials.  Job openings will come down as the consumer credit bubble matures, leading to lower wages.

New home construction is cooling.  

Credit spreads are widening, and the Fed doesn't seem to care

Perhaps more ominously, bonds are not acting as a useful hedge to equities.  Both are falling with good correlation  (even equities volatility hedges aren't working)

Edited May 19, 2022 by bigskydoc

[The Hulk]

Interesting Trend:

Backyard Pools: last summer 2yr waiting list from several local builders.. all of a sudden there is openings! Basically the demand dropped off cliff due to higher interest/financing and lack of extra monthly $ to allocate to a new loan.

Same thing is happening with new Construction / homes. People are cancelling and dropping off the list: 99.9% of folks buy as much home as they can afford based on the monthly payment, which means a LOT less HOME than a few months ago way less home than last year, thats just financing add the increase cost of materials and new generation will become a generation of renters... 

interesting leading indicator on new const: "well pumps" demand falling quickly...never would have thought of that one but sadly production will get reduced as DOW cut allocation by 30%... only certain glues & resins can be used in pumps used for drinking water, near impossible to change suppliers and a certain chem comes from a war torn region... so while demand drops, the price will continue to rise.. stagflation.. 

some white house discussion last week indicated the Indian reservations may open up a lot of land to be farmed..i'm sure at a premium... Still doesn't solve current food shortages though. 

 

 

[jjthehodag]

1 hour ago, The Hulk said:

Good ol JP predicts Avg $6 by end of summer ouch; https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10833655/Average-gas-price-hits-record-high-4-589.html

don;t doubt it, but hope it doesn't become reality... 

nail in the coffin for RV's, Vaca/travel, etc.. 

I've been paying $6+ for quite some time.  for me the increase gas price is a drop in a bucket compared to total cost of ownership 

[TAQ44]

34 minutes ago, jjthehodag said:

I've been paying $6+ for quite some time.  for me the increase gas price is a drop in a bucket compared to total cost of ownership 

You must be in CA too…. Totally disagree on the bucket drop tho. Yea it ain’t cheap to be an owner, but our gas prices are absolute insanity for almost no good reason considering a simple flip of a switch to a certain pipeline could significantly help…. Just my “opinion”

[oldjeep]

43 minutes ago, jjthehodag said:

I've been paying $6+ for quite some time.  for me the increase gas price is a drop in a bucket compared to total cost of ownership 

Jeeze.  It's been around $4 here in MN for a while and I thought that was high.

[SmoothbrainA22]

17 minutes ago, oldjeep said:

Jeeze.  It's been around $4 here in MN for a while and I thought that was high.

I'm between $4 and $5 for REG, which is what I'm putting in all my vehicles right now. Rough either way especially for the F150 since I don't have the V6. Boat and truck are guzzling.

[TallRedRider]

4 hours ago, jjthehodag said:

I've been paying $6+ for quite some time.  for me the increase gas price is a drop in a bucket compared to total cost of ownership 

I am fond of saying that myself, but some pointed out to me that many boat owners who finance the boats break it down differently.  The gas costs really begin to add up as a large part of the total ownership.  If a person gets 100 hours per year and uses 10 gallons per hour, then that is $5000 dollars per year at $5 per gallon (makes the math easy).   A 20 year loan on 100k is 660 per month at 5%.   So the gas costs alone can cost almost as much as the boat.  For guys who got a lower interest rate, it is more than the cost of the boat.  

I think it has been hinted at on this thread, but the simple fact is that we can't put a huge part of the world's workforce down due to COVID, increase government spending dramatically and not have to pay the piper eventually in some way.  For many people, there were no consequences, now there is.  I think... (checks notes)... that there is no free lunch.  

[Sparky450]

7 hours ago, jjthehodag said:

I've been paying $6+ for quite some time.  for me the increase gas price is a drop in a bucket compared to total cost of ownership 

I was gonna say you must be in Cali

And then I see you’re on the Dirty D😂😂
It’s going to be eight dollars a gallon for us

Edited May 20, 2022 by Sparky450

[Sparky450]

6 hours ago, TAQ44 said:

You must be in CA too…. Totally disagree on the bucket drop tho. Yea it ain’t cheap to be an owner, but our gas prices are absolute insanity for almost no good reason considering a simple flip of a switch to a certain pipeline could significantly help…. Just my “opinion”

Yeah and our governor is giving $300 to everybody that owns a vehicle

Whoop t do. buy some more voters

Yeah and our governor is giving $300 to everybody that owns a vehicle

Why not repeal the fuel tax of $1.25 a gallon until this crap done

We only have a $92 billion surplus in our state right now

And while you are at it delay the emissions on the big rigs so that we can get some shipping going on

 

Edited May 20, 2022 by Sparky450

[TAQ44]

26 minutes ago, Sparky450 said:

Yeah and our governor is giving $300 to everybody that owns a vehicle

Whoop t do. buy some more voters

Yeah and our governor is giving $300 to everybody that owns a vehicle

Why not repeal the fuel tax of $1.25 a gallon until this crap done

We only have a $92 billion surplus in our state right now

And while you are at it delay the emissions on the big rigs so that we can get some shipping going on

 

EXXXXACTLY!!!! Wasn’t the gas tax your speaking of meant for road improvements too?? HA!!! I’ve seen no such improvements👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻

[AWADD09]

On 5/19/2022 at 1:52 PM, bigskydoc said:

Last week of March the 2 year - 10 year treasury yield inverted

Durable goods excluding defense have slowed and fell in February.  There was some recovery in March, but the trend is down

Equities are in the first inning of a rout that I believe will rival 2008, unless the Fed steps in

Jobs remain strong, but they are slowing.  This is probably the strongest argument against recession, but we will see what happens when manufacturers get squeezed between reduced credit availability (as equities cool), and increased cost of materials.  Job openings will come down as the consumer credit bubble matures, leading to lower wages.

New home construction is cooling.  

Credit spreads are widening, and the Fed doesn't seem to care

Perhaps more ominously, bonds are not acting as a useful hedge to equities.  Both are falling with good correlation  (even equities volatility hedges aren't working)

I haven't covered my short yet.  As scary as 2008 was we got through it, then again maybe we just kind of put duck tape on it and pushed it down the road which is even scarier.  

[rennis]

The economist I respect and trust the most gave a presentation at a conference I was at earlier this week.  He, like many here, is predicting a recession.  He is predicting it to land sometime in 2023.  All signs point to 2022 going strong for GDP despite the rising interest rates and inflation.  He started his presentation by pointing out the Fed should have began the process of fighting inflation long before they actually did here in the first quarter of 2022.  For those of you who bought a boat in 2021 and locked in pricing and financing before the Fed got off their butts and did something smart, congratulations, you dodged a small bullet. 

We aren't going to see a 2008 level downturn; the economic inputs are not the same this time.  That one was driven by the utter collapse of the U.S. housing market driven by deplorable lending practices in the industry, compounded by even worse behavior on wall street and by re-insurers like AGI.  If you haven't read the Big Short, do so.  Then ask yourself if you see the same problems today.  Or I can save you the time and tell you that you simply will not.   I will say that I follow the theory that the U.S. housing market follows a 18 year cycle.  And we've been on a collision course with the year 2024 for a very long time.  If you look at the supply of homes relative to demand and pricing, however, there is simply no way for us to see a housing correction like 2008.  It's not physically or mathematically possible with the assets available.  I think there will be a correction.  But you're not going to be snapping up foreclosed properties for pennies on the dollar at the county court house.  I'd bet a lot of money on that. 

The root problems in our economy are not what many people have been yammering on about for the last three pages.  Most of those are just symptoms.  Gas prices are out of control due to inflation and the war in Ukraine.  If you want to be mad at someone, be mad at Putin.  And the world political leaders who have helped keep him in power for so long, including our own.  Without that we'd be moaning about fuel prices because of inflationary impacts, but nothing like we are because of Putin.  On the other hand he has nukes.  And because he has nukes you're paying $6/gallon to have some fun this summer. First world problems meets real world problems.  

The real problem facing our economy is our workforce.  There are 1.9 job openings for every unemployed American.  Even if we had 0% unemployment we'd have millions of unfilled jobs, across all sectors of the economy.  We. Need. People.  In construction.  In healthcare. In Tech.  In Finance and Accounting. In Manufacturing. Everyone needs more and better people. Everyone everywhere is STRUGGLING to meet the needs of their customers and it starts with the labor force. We need to educate our current citizens and have better policies about immigration that attracts the right people to come to our shores and make this economy hum.  To quote this economist: "We should be building a wall to keep immigrants IN the U.S."  And looking inward, we need to get our young males off their butts, out of their gaming chairs, and back to work.  The most underemployed group of citizens in our country relative to historical averages is young white males.  Facts.  And I see a lot of people who simply enable that bullcrap.  We need to find them ways to be productive in our economy.  It doesn't require a 4 year degree.  It requires some motivation and a passion for doing something productive.  Immigrants and public policy aren't to blame for that:  We Are.  As parents and a society.  Stuff needs to change, and it starts with family and educational opportunities, including vocations.  So vote yes on the school tax levies when they are put to vote. They need more money.  And then get involved and tell your local school board you want to see a shop class offered to high schoolers. 

4.5M Americans quit their jobs in March.  That is a record high and fundamental lunacy if you ask me.  Many left for other jobs, but the turnover is astonishing. Something has to change.

The stock market was so overheated relative to the fundamental drivers of value that anyone with a brain could have predicted that at some point equities would come back down to earth.  I am glad, for one, because we can't afford to have more Boomers retire early. Not until they have passed more knowledge down to other generations of the workforce.  Because frankly they are terrible at it and need a lot more time before most of them call it quits.  This is a fundamental issue facing our country and no one is doing jack about it.

I say address the workforce and jobs situation first and foremost.  The rest is noise/byproduct and there ain't much you or I can do about it anyway.   Fill up that gas tank and let her rip with your families this summer.  And for gosh sakes stop thinking about the economy when you do. 

[klntime]

 

Nice thoughtful write up rennis..

To your point below...

"And looking inward, we need to get our young males off their butts, out of their gaming chairs, and back to work."

I believe you are going to see less nd less young people entering the traditional workforce.  Things are constantly changing and many are finding different ways to earn money.  From play-to-earn gaming, social media influencers, the Crypto world that continues to grow every year, not to mention web 3 and meta-verse opportunities which are only going to grow in the coming years and decades. 

For example: I recently had an employee build up his You Tube channel to a couple Million subscribers, quit his traditional job and now does extremely well doing that full time.

These things will likely continue to cause problems for our workforce as we know it today.

and to your other point!!!

"Fill up that gas tank and let her rip with your families this summer.  And for gosh sakes stop thinking about the economy when you do."

 

 

[Five Cent Worth]

41 minutes ago, rennis said:

The economist I respect and trust the most gave a presentation at a conference I was at earlier this week.  He, like many here, is predicting a recession.  He is predicting it to land sometime in 2023.  All signs point to 2022 going strong for GDP despite the rising interest rates and inflation.  He started his presentation by pointing out the Fed should have began the process of fighting inflation long before they actually did here in the first quarter of 2022.  For those of you who bought a boat in 2021 and locked in pricing and financing before the Fed got off their butts and did something smart, congratulations, you dodged a small bullet. 

We aren't going to see a 2008 level downturn; the economic inputs are not the same this time.  That one was driven by the utter collapse of the U.S. housing market driven by deplorable lending practices in the industry, compounded by even worse behavior on wall street and by re-insurers like AGI.  If you haven't read the Big Short, do so.  Then ask yourself if you see the same problems today.  Or I can save you the time and tell you that you simply will not.   I will say that I follow the theory that the U.S. housing market follows a 18 year cycle.  And we've been on a collision course with the year 2024 for a very long time.  If you look at the supply of homes relative to demand and pricing, however, there is simply no way for us to see a housing correction like 2008.  It's not physically or mathematically possible with the assets available.  I think there will be a correction.  But you're not going to be snapping up foreclosed properties for pennies on the dollar at the county court house.  I'd bet a lot of money on that. 

The root problems in our economy are not what many people have been yammering on about for the last three pages.  Most of those are just symptoms.  Gas prices are out of control due to inflation and the war in Ukraine.  If you want to be mad at someone, be mad at Putin.  And the world political leaders who have helped keep that F%#&er in power for so long, including our own.  Without that we'd be moaning about fuel prices because of inflationary impacts, but nothing like we are because of Putin.  On the other hand he has nukes.  And because he has nukes you're paying $6/gallon to have some fun this summer. First world problems meets real world problems.  

The real problem facing our economy is our workforce.  There are 1.9 job openings for every unemployed American.  Even if we had 0% unemployment we'd have millions of unfilled jobs, across all sectors of the economy.  We. Need. People.  In construction.  In healthcare. In Tech.  In Finance and Accounting. In Manufacturing. Everyone needs more and better people. Everyone everywhere is STRUGGLING to meet the needs of their customers and it starts with the labor force. We need to educate our current citizens and have better policies about immigration that attracts the right people to come to our shores and make this economy hum.  To quote this economist: "We should be building a wall to keep immigrants IN the U.S."  And looking inward, we need to get our young males off their butts, out of their gaming chairs, and back to work.  The most underemployed group of citizens in our country relative to historical averages is young white males.  Facts.  And I see a lot of people who simply enable that bullcrap.  We need to find them ways to be productive in our economy.  It doesn't require a 4 year degree.  It requires some motivation and a passion for doing something productive.  Immigrants and public policy aren't to blame for that:  We Are.  As parents and a society.  Stuff needs to change, and it starts with family and educational opportunities, including vocations.  So vote yes on the school tax levies when they are put to vote. They need more money.  And then get involved and tell your local school board you want to see a shop class offered to high schoolers. 

4.5M Americans quit their jobs in March.  That is a record high and fundamental lunacy if you ask me.  Many left for other jobs, but the turnover is astonishing. Something has to change.

The stock market was so overheated relative to the fundamental drivers of value that anyone with a brain could have predicted that at some point equities would come back down to earth.  I am glad, for one, because we can't afford to have more Boomers retire early. Not until they have passed more knowledge down to other generations of the workforce.  Because frankly they are terrible at it and need a lot more time before most of them call it quits.  This is a fundamental issue facing our country and no one is doing jack about it.

I say address the workforce and jobs situation first and foremost.  The rest is noise/byproduct and there ain't much you or I can do about it anyway.   Fill up that gas tank and let her rip with your families this summer.  And for gosh sakes stop thinking about the economy when you do. 

Well said.  Made me think on many things.

And cheers to this...  A lot more to worry about than if that guy financed his boat or paid cash... 

Edited May 20, 2022 by Five Cent Worth

[COOP]

On 5/19/2022 at 2:50 PM, oldjeep said:

Jeeze.  It's been around $4 here in MN for a while and I thought that was high.

$4.49 where I'm at.

[shawndoggy]

57 minutes ago, rennis said:

And then get involved and tell your local school board you want to see a shop class offered to high schoolers. 

YES!  LOL, even for the white collar peeps it's good to know how a wrench, drill and a table saw work.  Life skills.  

17 hours ago, TAQ44 said:

EXXXXACTLY!!!! Wasn’t the gas tax your speaking of meant for road improvements too?? HA!!! I’ve seen no such improvements👎🏻👎🏻👎🏻

An an occasional visitor, I've gotta say California's streets and highways are generally pretty awful.  Like kind of embarrassingly so.   I'm sure repairs aren't easy given the constant level of traffic (I know you can't just shut down 880 for a couple of months for a full repave), but on a recent trip from Reno to Monterey we hit several freeway deathtrap potholes that seemed big enough to cause a flat.  cracked/rutted/noisy... yuck.  The slow lane over Donner pass (both ways) is worn down to ruts that feel like driving on cobblestones.

[theloungelife]

1 hour ago, klntime said:

For example: I recently had an employee build up his You Tube channel to a couple Million subscribers, quit his traditional job and now does extremely well doing that full time.

I would still put that in the bucket of working hard.  It takes a lot of work to do youtube proper enough for to attract that audience.  Very different from someone who does the minimum and just plugs away at Call of Duty all day.  I have multiple friends that do just that.  Guys in their 30s and 40s (prime earning years) just doing the minimum to pay rent and have some ok food.  Gaming all the time.  I think that is what @rennis is referring to.  The Japanese had this first with Hikikomori Syndrome but it is spreading all over and is an issue for global productivity.  I have no idea how to motivate these people though as I have tried with my friends.  They're just not up to it.

[Shea]

Well said @rennis, well said.  I couldn't agree more.  The older generation, parents, schools, society in general needs to motivate the younger crowd and offer more experiences. 

The greatest thing that ever happened to me was my Mom making me work my first summer break after freshman year of college in a plastics factory after getting terrible grades.  Being lazy, partying too much...  I had grown up spoiled and entitled and she knew it.  That was a turning point in my life.  I learned a lot of skills that summer and more importantly became more curious, productive & thoughtful.  I certainly wouldn't be on this website today chatting it up with a bunch of fellow boat owners had my Mom not stepped in and showed me a different side of life.  I'll never forget that experience, it was great!  I'll never forget my shop classes in high school either.  All those skills learned from that summer, along with a business degree lead me to opening my own business managing mind blowing properties in Jackson Hole and throughout the West.  Forever thankful for those experiences.  

[rennis]

2 hours ago, klntime said:

 

Nice thoughtful write up rennis..

To your point below...

"And looking inward, we need to get our young males off their butts, out of their gaming chairs, and back to work."

I believe you are going to see less nd less young people entering the traditional workforce.  Things are constantly changing and many are finding different ways to earn money.  From play-to-earn gaming, social media influencers, the Crypto world that continues to grow every year, not to mention web 3 and meta-verse opportunities which are only going to grow in the coming years and decades. 

For example: I recently had an employee build up his You Tube channel to a couple Million subscribers, quit his traditional job and now does extremely well doing that full time.

These things will likely continue to cause problems for our workforce as we know it today.

and to your other point!!!

"Fill up that gas tank and let her rip with your families this summer.  And for gosh sakes stop thinking about the economy when you do."

 

 

Those are good points.  There is a distinction between Underemployed and Unemployed.  I don't know where those types of folks who have non-traditional sources of income fall into our BLS data.  If they're earning YouTube money and paying taxes, are they considered employed?  I don't know the answer.  I don't have a problem with those guys.  I have a problem with those doing absolutely nothing, and we have a lot of those too. 

Practical advice for people worried about gas money?  Here's what my wife and I have done since we bought our first boat:  We have a separate checking account with our credit union that is ONLY for the boat.  (we do the same for our mortgage.)  We each allocate a certain $amount of each paycheck all year-long to that account to cover the P&I payments, and additional funds to cover repairs and fuel.  We do this via direct-deposit instructions with our employers. My paychecks are split into three separate deposit accounts, all of the time.

Point being:  If you direct deposit into a checking/savings account just for the boat, and continuously fund that account year-round, the sting of fuel prices and surprise repairs is dramatically lessened, and doesn't affect what feels like your Take Home Pay because it's always separate from it.  It's a great system. 

[TAQ44]

2 hours ago, klntime said:

 

Nice thoughtful write up rennis..

To your point below...

"And looking inward, we need to get our young males off their butts, out of their gaming chairs, and back to work."

I believe you are going to see less nd less young people entering the traditional workforce.  Things are constantly changing and many are finding different ways to earn money.  From play-to-earn gaming, social media influencers, the Crypto world that continues to grow every year, not to mention web 3 and meta-verse opportunities which are only going to grow in the coming years and decades. 

For example: I recently had an employee build up his You Tube channel to a couple Million subscribers, quit his traditional job and now does extremely well doing that full time.

These things will likely continue to cause problems for our workforce as we know it today.

and to your other point!!!

"Fill up that gas tank and let her rip with your families this summer.  And for gosh sakes stop thinking about the economy when you do."

 

 

😂😂😂 you guys think the kids these days are actually going to develop some sort of work ethic?? With the level of sensitivity and “inclusion” this country is forcing on parents and the children (whether we can control it or not). I’m just glad somebody has faith here in our future. I am not as optimistic. I work in a fairly blue collared “old school” type of job, and the kids we hire these days are simply TRASH. In one sentence I can say: social media has entirely ruined our country and the youth who are expected to run it in the near future. 

[The Hulk]

Why do young folk need to work? Highest ever number of youngsters 30 and younger still live with mom and dad, free rent and food! Work here and there for some cash.. 

Was at airport two young gals behind us.. "Umm like umm I'd like rather not work and not do fun things... Rather than work and be able to afford fun things" . Wife and i couldn't stop laughing.. 

Also last i checked only 2yrs ago US was net energy exporter.. now shortage.. hmm. EVs are going to wreck the grid which is 10-20 yrs behind the EV demand. An average EV is equivalent to adding a house to the grid.. as electric prices skyrocket it will be a wakeup call..

Workforce participation is still LOW compared to pre covid.. yet population grew.. not good

Talked to a few large company execs today which all started upper mgt layoffs this week to reduce costs.. they said will continue along with the slide in demand through remaining year but they are trying to rein in cost as wall street punishes their Lower margins.. 

Edited May 20, 2022 by The Hulk

[TAQ44]

1 hour ago, shawndoggy said:

YES!  LOL, even for the white collar peeps it's good to know how a wrench, drill and a table saw work.  Life skills.  

An an occasional visitor, I've gotta say California's streets and highways are generally pretty awful.  Like kind of embarrassingly so.   I'm sure repairs aren't easy given the constant level of traffic (I know you can't just shut down 880 for a couple of months for a full repave), but on a recent trip from Reno to Monterey we hit several freeway deathtrap potholes that seemed big enough to cause a flat.  cracked/rutted/noisy... yuck.  The slow lane over Donner pass (both ways) is worn down to ruts that feel like driving on cobblestones.

 

1 hour ago, shawndoggy said:

YES!  LOL, even for the white collar peeps it's good to know how a wrench, drill and a table saw work.  Life skills.  

An an occasional visitor, I've gotta say California's streets and highways are generally pretty awful.  Like kind of embarrassingly so.   I'm sure repairs aren't easy given the constant level of traffic (I know you can't just shut down 880 for a couple of months for a full repave), but on a recent trip from Reno to Monterey we hit several freeway deathtrap potholes that seemed big enough to cause a flat.  cracked/rutted/noisy... yuck.  The slow lane over Donner pass (both ways) is worn down to ruts that feel like driving on cobblestones.

Exactly our points. Thanks for validating it my friend. All the people who tell us to essentially “nut up” for the high gas prices can go kick rocks. ESPECIALLY considering the gas tax per gallon that is unique to our state when you are a first hand example for us of how it’s not being utilized. 

[justgary]

9 minutes ago, theloungelife said:

I would still put that in the bucket of working hard.  It takes a lot of work to do youtube proper enough for to attract that audience.  Very different from someone who does the minimum and just plugs away at Call of Duty all day.  I have multiple friends that do just that.  Guys in their 30s and 40s (prime earning years) just doing the minimum to pay rent and have some ok food.  Gaming all the time.  I think that is what @rennis is referring to.  The Japanese had this first with Hikikomori Syndrome but it is spreading all over and is an issue for global productivity.  I have no idea how to motivate these people though as I have tried with my friends.  They're just not up to it.

I agree.  As a Baby Boomer who actually did pass knowledge on to younger engineers every chance I could, I'll say that some of them do want to learn.  And they learn quickly.

2 hours ago, rennis said:

I am glad, for one, because we can't afford to have more Boomers retire early. Not until they have passed more knowledge down to other generations of the workforce.  Because frankly they are terrible at it and need a lot more time before most of them call it quits.  This is a fundamental issue facing our country and no one is doing jack about it.

Passing information to others is not my direct responsibility even though I have always done it.  I had some great mentors when I was just starting out.  I do still volunteer at a local Scout troop even though my youngest is 30.  I get an opportunity to pass on knowledge and experience to teenagers while I also have a great time in the outdoors.  Blaming those of us who worked our whole lives for not passing on knowledge to those who vote for free handouts (paid for by our productivity) is a bit unfair.  My kids have a great outlook, learn from others, and work hard.  Most of the scouts I have been around in the past are the same way.

The "Baby Boomer" years are basically 1946 to 1964 anyway, which makes the youngest of us around 58 now.  That's not too terribly early to retire if you have the means.  When I bought my (only) house, I was happy to get a loan for 9.25%.  Now I'm loaning people money at 5 to 6%, which I'll need to change now that rates are climbing again.  So I don't really know what you mean when you say, "we can't afford to have more Boomers retire early."  Nobody is financing my retirement but me.

A note to those who might be interested in retirement some day:  You may think that your biggest purchase in life is your house.  It is not.  Your retirement is much bigger.  You have to make time payments on it for a long time, and you don't get to enjoy it at all until you have finished making the payments.  If you don't have a pension, you will need several million in the bank in order to retire at a reasonable age, live a long live, and not have to change your lifestyle.  Dedicate a substantial percentage of your income to retirement, and don't touch it until you have it paid off.

[shawndoggy]

40 minutes ago, justgary said:

Nobody is financing my retirement but me.

Sortof.  Since we have a hybrid pay-as-we-go social security system, some of the funds contributed by current workers will get paid to you in retirement. And I assume that you'll not be turning down medicare (even if paying for supplemental insurance at the same time).

Prolly you can do without the social security, but an extra $30K is an extra $30K, right?  Are you planning to pull sooner or later?  Assume later given your boglehead tendencies?