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Market timing advice


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I’m in Colorado, so our season is wrapping up.  My plan had been to find a good deal on a used boat headed into winter, but the used market seems to still be pretty inflated, so I’m not sure those good deals will be around this fall.  Anyone have any thoughts about what the spring market might look like opposed to this fall?  My sense is that things might not start to look somewhat reasonable till 23’ and I don’t really want to wait that long to find a boat. 
 

Also curious if the resale will likely be better on a 23 LSV, or 23 MXZ moving forward?  Looking at twenty thirteen ish vintage. 
 

Thanks in advance. 
 

Colby

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As long as there are supply chain issues and limited inventory I can see used boat prices holding strong till winter of 2022. Who knows tho I could be totally wrong.

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This is all just my personal opinion, but I think we’re in a new era of boat prices. Sure they won’t stay THIS high forever, but I think we’re in this pricing market for at least a few more years, and even then I see it taking a slight dip but not back to pre covid prices. 
 

We know the price of new boats won’t go down, manufacturers are selling out of build slots each year with increased pricing year over year, to me, that’s going to continue to raise the used market as people continue to be priced out of newer models.

 

in terms of resale, a 23lsv will be the best resale bot out of any wakeboat on the market. 

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You might find some better prices in the winter but you end up taking risks associated with buying a boat that is currently winterized and unable to test run, or you end up paying $500 to test drive and then rewinterize depending on where you live and buy.  Buying from a dealer would probably mitigate the risk but you’ll pay more there then you would buying used from the previous owner.  Waiting until spring gives you the opportunity to save more money and not have maintenance/storage all winter.  Good luck with your decision.

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I don't think prices are coming down anytime soon.  Less boats made this year (and last), increased demand, double digit price increases on new all will make used values hold.

And as an aside, I'd suggest you increase your budget and move to a 2015 or newer.  The older boats have too many problems with the screens, which also are becoming more expensive, and more difficult to find when (not if) you need to replace them.

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Right now it seems like boat investments new or used hold or increase in value from their purchase price. That's great for many. But for new boat manufacturers my guess is they are so frustrated at money that could be made but they aren't.

As well as used buyers especially who badly want to purchase a very specific boat with very limited numbers. To sum up, ha, like posters above, my guess is we'll see this same outlook for the near future. 

Steve B.

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Boats are not the only things that used to depreciate over time that have appreciated recently.  It will not abate until supply and demand come back into balance.

Demand is going strong and supply chains are unbalanced and can’t keep up.  It will be a while.

I suspect it will be 2023 before we see significant corrections in supply for cars, trucks, boats, RVs, houses….

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I just sold my M235 for what I paid for it in December of 2017.  Obviously I negotiated a good price for it new understanding how boats generally loose massive value over the first 4 years.  However, in this one instance in my boating life I lost nothing but the expense for insurance  and gas.  

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The number of Malibu's listed on www.onlyinboards.com has had significant ups and downs over the past two years.  Before covid (and everyone and their brother buying a boat) there were almost 1200 Malibu boats listed on the site.  When nobody could find a boat and prices were at their highest there were under 200 listed for sale on the website.  Right now there are almost 600.  A lot of them are new boats without prices, and a lot of them are listed waaaaay too high, thinking they'll still get a premium for their boat going into winter.  Point is, I think there are a way more boats available, and that number should increase in the coming months.  Instead of winterizing and dealing with storage some people will try to sell.  Again, a lot are priced really high, but I've also found a lot more appropriately priced boats lately too.  IMO it's slowly getting better.

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I think there are still some at least fair deals to be had this fall if you keep your eyes open.  IMHO boat prices are always higher no matter the year until about mid July.  Then you see things start to come down.  I have actually seen the same thing this year even though over all the prices were higher.  

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I think you can still get a "new world" deal, but not the deals of the past.  We sold our 22VLX in 48 hours from listing to check in hand and we did pretty well because of how we purchased the boat and when we listed it.  I bought a leftover 2018 in 2019 for a price that I knew I could sell for after a year or two of use pre-covid.  I priced our boat under most of the listings on OIB but still high enough to give us a solid return because new boat prices jumped dramatically as well .  I know I could have been patient and listed higher but we knew 2022 builds were in short supply so we went with the "more conservative asking price" and it paid off.   Had we waited to possibly make more money, we may have lost our slot which would have cost us a sales tax deduction + cost increases of the next MY boat.

That said, we knew we were going back to Axis as I think we're 1-2 years away from a market correction and I feel better protected in a lower $$ depreciated asset BICBW.  Having that much more money down on the boat as well as options we didn't have on our 2018 have me excited for a new toy and I think I'll sleep easier if S... does hit the fan.  

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16 hours ago, RyanB said:

I don't think prices are coming down anytime soon.  Less boats made this year (and last), increased demand, double digit price increases on new all will make used values hold.

And as an aside, I'd suggest you increase your budget and move to a 2015 or newer.  The older boats have too many problems with the screens, which also are becoming more expensive, and more difficult to find when (not if) you need to replace them.

This would be my take as well. 

We just sold our 2019 this August for 10% more than we bought it for… which is bananas. Also what helps in the resale market is to not buy a boat that looks like a gum ball. Keep the colors classy. 

 

I got this alert the other day on this price drop because this was the same model we sold. The color scheme is woof but for all the extras on this boat, this is a really good price. 

 

https://www.boattrader.com/boat/2019-malibu-22-lsv-7911550/

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18 hours ago, RyanB said:

I don't think prices are coming down anytime soon.  Less boats made this year (and last), increased demand, double digit price increases on new all will make used values hold.

And as an aside, I'd suggest you increase your budget and move to a 2015 or newer.  The older boats have too many problems with the screens, which also are becoming more expensive, and more difficult to find when (not if) you need to replace them.

I really appreciate everyone’s thoughts.  I’m open to the idea of finding a fifteen or newer, but the idea of getting $90k deep in a boat just scares the hell out of me because I can see five or so more years of depreciation plus a market dip costing me $40k to $50k…. Who knows, maybe not. 

My last boat was an RLXI that I sold ten years ago for less than I could sell it for today, so what the hell do I know??

Colby

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1 hour ago, BarliBear said:

This would be my take as well. 

We just sold our 2019 this August for 10% more than we bought it for… which is bananas. Also what helps in the resale market is to not buy a boat that looks like a gum ball. Keep the colors classy. 

 

I got this alert the other day on this price drop because this was the same model we sold. The color scheme is woof but for all the extras on this boat, this is a really good price. 

 

https://www.boattrader.com/boat/2019-malibu-22-lsv-7911550/

The interior of this boat looks like it would get too hot to touch on a summer day in Powell, is that not the case?  I’ve always thought the same of black boats. 

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1 hour ago, Colby said:

I really appreciate everyone’s thoughts.  I’m open to the idea of finding a fifteen or newer, but the idea of getting $90k deep in a boat just scares the hell out of me

Just do your due diligence on the generation of boats that you are looking at, especially the screens.  I've now replaced both the Maliview screen ($2300) and have a spare touch screen as mine is delaminating (that was $1800).  It is my understanding that the replacement price of both has gone up considerably, they are difficult to get, and in the near future that there is the real possibility of not being able to replace them at all.

I love my 2014.  That said, the screens aren't much short of garbage, and my experience is not unique.

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2 hours ago, Colby said:

The interior of this boat looks like it would get too hot to touch on a summer day in Powell, is that not the case?  I’ve always thought the same of black boats. 

Don’t think the color really matters. Our sepia gets hot AF in summer delta heat as well 

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6 hours ago, BarliBear said:

This would be my take as well. 

We just sold our 2019 this August for 10% more than we bought it for… which is bananas. Also what helps in the resale market is to not buy a boat that looks like a gum ball. Keep the colors classy. 

 

I got this alert the other day on this price drop because this was the same model we sold. The color scheme is woof but for all the extras on this boat, this is a really good price. 

 

https://www.boattrader.com/boat/2019-malibu-22-lsv-7911550/

The external colors are pretty nice looking, IMHO, but I am partial to red.  

4 hours ago, Colby said:

The interior of this boat looks like it would get too hot to touch on a summer day in Powell, is that not the case?  I’ve always thought the same of black boats. 

I would never buy that boat if I were ever going to Lake Powell for that reason.  

1 hour ago, BarliBear said:

Don’t think the color really matters. Our sepia gets hot AF in summer delta heat as well 

Anything other than white is a hot interior, but that boat will be scorching hot.  I think if you look closely at the pics, you can see heat wave lines rising from the vinyl (I am just kidding, don't look for them).  We have gone the rounds on colored interiors, and lots of people on here feel that thermodynamic laws don't apply to their dark color choices.   

 

The boat market will be busy until January of 23, IMHO.  But who knows, an interest rate hike might cool things pretty fast.  

Edited by TallRedRider
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2 hours ago, BarliBear said:

Don’t think the color really matters. Our sepia gets hot AF in summer delta heat as well 

We had Graphite and Light Graphite in our 19. They do get hot but as soon as you get moving and the wind hits them they cool down nicely. Just make sure you have a towel until you get moving. And I got to experience the Cool Touch or whatever it is. It actually works nice. I was able to stand directly on the vinyl after 2 hours in direct sun at 95 degrees, (Dark Graphite Interior)

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On 9/30/2021 at 10:21 AM, BarliBear said:

This would be my take as well. 

We just sold our 2019 this August for 10% more than we bought it for… which is bananas. Also what helps in the resale market is to not buy a boat that looks like a gum ball. Keep the colors classy. 

 

I got this alert the other day on this price drop because this was the same model we sold. The color scheme is woof but for all the extras on this boat, this is a really good price. 

 

https://www.boattrader.com/boat/2019-malibu-22-lsv-7911550/

That boat is priced how it is because it has almost 900 hours haha

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Dont forget we will have an Energy crisis coming to the US this winter., its on the way already. Shortages of NG, fuel, and Electricity...Most natural gas suppliers are submitting to states for a min 20-30% price hike THIS YEAR! most will get passed at around 15-20% though. but hey they say thats only $30/mo increase for most households?..... maybe a 1000sqft home with R200...

Electricity/heat  Already a crisis in CN, Coal at near 400% increase, Europe same about 300-400% hike on coal, and NG is following. if we have a cold winter like predicted we'll see similar situation as last years TX unfold. CN factory shut downs are already skyroketing much of the raw materials, aluminum, resisns, silicas, will be further delayed on top of the port / shipping industry delays now so it will only get worse. i would expect the prices to remain VERY HIGH due to further forthcoming problems and shortages and less capacity. even Concrete will skyrocket very soon. crazy. 

on the other hand look at the big Autos - they were estimating all year a 5-6% decrease then wham, -33% in just Q3... duh like nobody could see that one coming... its not going to be a pretty Q4... Plus GM + FORD have already started SCARPPING the cars that have been sitting in lots. TONS of new trucks and cars are heading straight to metal scrap yards (good luck finding that info in the news) ... you know the ones without chips where the windows rolled down.... the ones in fields and lots where rodents have done numbers on all those peanut oil coated wires.... most of those vehicles will be scrapped due to liability and damage.. Well we have to keep the unions pumping out cars even though they are likely to just sit on a lot until they go to the scrap yards. that being said it wont be a shocker when pricing skyrockets to cover all those losses in the very near future. 

long story short i dont see pricing going down or leveling anytime soon. IMO people will keep getting shocked at used & new pricing increases.. especially in the recreational/luxury markets. on the other hand i'm very shocked malibu has not entered or bought into the pontoon market. its going to further dominate well into the future. runabouts vastly being replaced by tri-toons in most markets. 

 

looks like were in for a fun winter .... again..... ughhhh

 

 

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On 10/1/2021 at 12:54 PM, Tjards said:

That boat is priced how it is because it has almost 900 hours haha

Whoa… missed that. Must’ve been used for a camp or something. That’s a ton of hours 

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