Buying Frenzy Leads to Inventory Shortage

[Raleigh]

14 minutes ago, footndale said:

And we start looking in the U.P.

 

 

Gonna be low of 44 degrees on Tuesday here! That’s damn cold for September. Still YIKES to Michigan. Brrrr

[Raleigh]

4 hours ago, The Hulk said:

Seems like just yesterday you were not allowed in your boat in the middle of the lake in some states! Haha man how that could of killed the boating industry if continued much longer..

I'm sad for restaurants, bars , travel industry.. we are picking winners and losers.. not good.. 

Boating is still high demand at least through next year due to back orderers and future orders. I'm will continue into next year so long as there is not some major catastrophe. Lake homes will continue to rise as those NBs try to find a place rather than trailer and interest rates remain free money then a lake place is a heck of a deal compared to a few typical vacations. 

The one issue I see is a larger than normal inflation

1. Mortgage rates below true inflation rate is free money. Home prices especially waterfront skyrocketing across the board (smart by FEDs during pandemmy)

2. Material shortages leading to skyrocketing prices.. anyone tried to buy wood lately? Averaging about 2X the price!!!!! Demand off chat and shortages from shut downs

3. Demand is high supply is low so that ol supply and demand price curve comes to life. 

4. Umm we printed like 6-8 Trillion dollars overnight.. sorry but your dollar is only worth 75-80 cents now... 

Yeah I’m worried about the increase in lake house costs. I’m looking at a later winter early spring purchase in 2022. The great reckoning might not be here by then. 
 

I still figure there are a bunch of people with boats and lake houses who didn’t fully anticipate all the headaches and will want to sell though. The question is when.

[Jhucke]

20 hours ago, vaporbluebu said:

 - We are in the market as well and it has been super frustrating.  I like the idea of your "least serious want ads". Just came across a 2016 23 LSV with a reduced price of $109k with no notable options! What I am interested in watching are the ads that say they are selling because they are buying a new boat/have a new boat on order, yet are asking a ridiculous price. Are they going to drop the price by $20k when it doesn't sell or did they just put they are ordering a new boat in the add instead of saying "hoping to find a sucker to buy my boat"?

Terrible pictures and they get mad saying to stop wasting their time, come see it for yourself.. when it's 6 hours drive away.

[The Hulk]

3 hours ago, Raleigh said:

Yeah I’m worried about the increase in lake house costs. I’m looking at a later winter early spring purchase in 2022. The great reckoning might not be here by then. 
 

I still figure there are a bunch of people with boats and lake houses who didn’t fully anticipate all the headaches and will want to sell though. The question is when.

I'm kinda thinking the lake housing market won't dip even if general house market does.. even in 08 crisis lake front didn't really drop or hardly.. it more so leveled for several years

So many ppl fleeing some of the larger cities and people getting into boating which has become much more expensive and a lot of newer/ie. last 10 yr lake fronters: are far from the average joe's income wise..  

Lakefront is such a limited commodity and people moving in seem to be far higher earners than the ppl they are replacing.. 

Interest rates so low adds fuel to the fire.. majority of ppl just look at vacation property worth as a monthly payment amount.. same with lake toys ie boats.. 20-30yr loans on boats now are u kidding me! 

I don't see any major reckoning coming with lakefront IMO.. too limited and too many ppl that are rich that haven't even entered into this market that could or will. 

 A 400 to 550k dump is now 500 to 750 now.. if you look at it from an interest savings standpoint it's the same price.. limited commodities just don't take a hit even when the general economy does.. I just don't see Lake lakefront taking any kind of major dip if anything it may just level off for a bit.

Use boat market yeah a little bit but so long as they keep selling new builds and the pricimg keeps inflating the used markets probably not going to dip as much as people may think either.. 

In my opinion it's still a great time to buy there's no deals but considering that you're getting free money compared to inflation why not you're saving it on the interest rate side.. now if you're going to pay pure cash not so much a good time.. but if you're doing a 30-year 2.85% it's a still a heck of a deal.. 15 year pretty darn good at 2.25 % right now..  if you're paying cash well you're paying a premium right now in this market....

[Eagleboy99]

Lake house (not just waterfront) sales were WAY up, up here.  Million dollar lakefront places gone in a couple days.

[The Hulk]

1 hour ago, Eagleboy99 said:

Lake house (not just waterfront) sales were WAY up, up here.  Million dollar lakefront places gone in a couple days.

Same here used to be 20-35 homes for sale at any point.. now less than a handful and they are all contingent.. even the $1M range places that used to sit were sold quickly. Absolutely crazy!  Our chain of lakes you use to be able to get lakefront for 400-500k.. now that's channel front or swamp areas at best or more.. 

Local realitors have waiting lists on ppl from detroit and Chicago areas many who have purchased sight unseen if it's remotely useable. What locals don't understand is that lakefront seems insane already but to folks from big cities like chicago these prices are still a joke to them.. 

Edited September 18, 2020 by The Hulk

[braindamage]

Owning a new or new to you boat is a big expense and is very exciting. I don’t think that emotional attachment to this decision will wane as fast as most on this thread think. I do think the new owners will go at least another summer before they realize they don’t have time for it. Some will take several years, while others will get into it for the long haul. I think it’ll be a slow bleed out so not expecting a glut of used boats for sale next summer.

now the frozen block issue...yeah...I think that’s gonna happen.

[ahopkins22LSV]

Was just at our dealer yesterday. They 9 2021 Axis on the floor and 6 2021 Malibu on the floor. They said they have 6 boats in production or very near that 5 of the have deposits on. They have little to no used inventory and are not seeing much of a slow down from people coming in wanting to buy boats. 

[The Hulk]

2 hours ago, ahopkinsVTX said:

Was just at our dealer yesterday. They 9 2021 Axis on the floor and 6 2021 Malibu on the floor. They said they have 6 boats in production or very near that 5 of the have deposits on. They have little to no used inventory and are not seeing much of a slow down from people coming in wanting to buy boats. 

Same thing happening with boat lifts and docks, back orders, and way more than usual deposits for next year/spring deliveries and installs, typically not something that happens as lifts are always an after thought of mew boat owners.. Many are already worried of shortages again for next season. If this keeps up demand is already above normal for next year before it's even begun. If anything pricing IMO will increase more than normal this winter just From material pricing and shortages alone let alone demand. 

Good for the industry that was on it's knees 6 months ago! What a complete 180!