Buy now or wait

[gregtay]

9 hours ago, Chappy said:

Anyone have insight on how and why the economy appears so strong.  Boats are basically sold out and selling at records highs and numbers.  My dad is an RV guy and he says it is the same with RV's.  Car sales are through the roof.  I own a second home in a vacation community with prices from $400K-1M. They sold 6 lots/homes in all of 2019, they sold 7 over the Memorial Day weekend and have sold 30 so far this year over, 2x their previous record. Finally, a good friend of mine has been the mortgage industry for 20 years and June 2020 was his best month ever!  It is crazy!  Thoughts?

Great to hear The Lookout doing so well this year. I really should have snagged a place over there back when there were just a few homes and a bunch of dirt.  We will be back over on Chelan the last week of July again so if you are over there let me know.   

Edit: and to answer the question... I think a lot of people are making more on unemployment than they did working plus people are finding more money in their pockets since they aren't traveling, eating out, paying for kids activities, etc.  Oh.. and that stock market. :-O

Edited July 11, 2020 by gregtay

[bass10a]

not sure anyone was rushing to ohio even when the world was falling apart..... everywhere else seems to be defying gravity.  Not to be political, but love or hate him the economy loves DJT.  I know of bigwigs at blackrock that would never say this on record but have made so much money theyll vote for him even though they hate him. 

[Chappy]

8 hours ago, mofaster said:

Must be referring to Arizona(??).  Its out of control, everyone is moving here from California, Washington, Illinois, etc.  My wife sells high end real estate, and its been an incredible 6 months here.  Also, most people buying "higher end" real estate are paying cash. 

Actually in Eastern, WA at Lake Chelan

[Chappy]

7 hours ago, Steve B. said:

Overall home sales are way down. Possibly worst in 40 years?  Boat sales and such are way up. Almost 20 million unemployed. 

Steve B.

 

 

This must depend on where you live. In Washington state the market is blazing hot!

[Chappy]

2 hours ago, gregtay said:

Great to hear The Lookout doing so well this year. I really should have snagged a place over there back when there were just a few homes and a bunch of dirt.  We will be back over on Chelan the last week of July again so if you are over there let me know.   

We spent all of June over there through the 4th, will be back early August.  Have fun!

[RedWakesetterVLX]

What I'm curious about is what the used market will look like the next one to three years.  We are seeing a boom in people buying who might not really know what they are getting into with boating.  Boating looks sexy and appealing but we all know how much work and time it takes.  Storage, travel time, maintenance, cost of parts, gear, I could go on and on.  I've always felt you have to really be die hard enthusiast to be a long term boater especially in the areas with shorter seasons.  So will there be a bunch of buyers who are wanting to unload their boats because life is back to normal and they realize that it's either to expensive of they just don't have the time for it in a few years? 

[dalt1]

1 hour ago, RedWakesetterVLX said:

What I'm curious about is what the used market will look like the next one to three years.  We are seeing a boom in people buying who might not really know what they are getting into with boating.  Boating looks sexy and appealing but we all know how much work and time it takes.  Storage, travel time, maintenance, cost of parts, gear, I could go on and on.  I've always felt you have to really be die hard enthusiast to be a long term boater especially in the areas with shorter seasons.  So will there be a bunch of buyers who are wanting to unload their boats because life is back to normal and they realize that it's either to expensive of they just don't have the time for it in a few years? 

I hope you are right as I will ready for an upgrade in 2 years. I agree with your thinking about the Die Hard group here and the work it takes to do this every weekend!

 

[IXFE]

2 hours ago, RedWakesetterVLX said:

What I'm curious about is what the used market will look like the next one to three years.  We are seeing a boom in people buying who might not really know what they are getting into with boating.  Boating looks sexy and appealing but we all know how much work and time it takes.  Storage, travel time, maintenance, cost of parts, gear, I could go on and on.  I've always felt you have to really be die hard enthusiast to be a long term boater especially in the areas with shorter seasons.  So will there be a bunch of buyers who are wanting to unload their boats because life is back to normal and they realize that it's either to expensive of they just don't have the time for it in a few years? 

But will it ever go back to normal?  The longer we keep behaving like this, the harder it will be to find our way back. This is my fear. 

[gregtay]

2 hours ago, RedWakesetterVLX said:

What I'm curious about is what the used market will look like the next one to three years.  We are seeing a boom in people buying who might not really know what they are getting into with boating.  Boating looks sexy and appealing but we all know how much work and time it takes.  Storage, travel time, maintenance, cost of parts, gear, I could go on and on.  I've always felt you have to really be die hard enthusiast to be a long term boater especially in the areas with shorter seasons.  So will there be a bunch of buyers who are wanting to unload their boats because life is back to normal and they realize that it's either to expensive of they just don't have the time for it in a few years? 

I do think there are a lot of people that don't know what they just got themselves into.  A lot of them likely don't even know where they are going to store their boat and it has been sitting on the street in front of their house or blocking their driveway.  Around here (Seattle) storage for a boat on a trailer is just impossible to find (I am so jealous of those states/cities where you just roll up to a beautiful storage facility by the lake and back your boat into your unit, close the door and drive away.)  In Seattle there is literally nothing like that. I once found a self storage place with 5 drive up units big enough for a boat and they wanted $1200/month.  A few dirt lots under the trees you could leave your boat but that's about it (and even that is expensive!)  That's the reason I will only buy a boat that fits in my garage at home (I am lucky.. a 23LSV fits!) but most of the homes around here have Prius sized garages and not even a 21ft boat would fit.  Come this winter the whole "winterization" process may be a bit of a surprise to a few.    I have thought about trying to get a few people together to build a nice boat/RV storage facility around here as I think you could hit 100% capacity they day you opened and get positive rather quickly but the cost of land makes it a difficult equation.

I did have one friend call me up about a month ago and say he decided he wants to buy a boat this summer for his family(he knows nothing about them.)  Said he didn't really want to own a boat so he would likely just sell it at the end of the season.  Then he asked how big of a boat could he get if he needs to tow it with his Highlander... and he really wants a boat that sleeps his family of 5 because he wants to go camping out on the Puget sound :-O  YIKES!   I advised him to rent a boat a few times first (he can walk to the lake from his house so should be fairly easy to just get out a few times.)   Thankfully he didn't buy a boat but I did see him post photos of his family camping over the 4th of July with one of those new small Airstreams... just proof that people just want something to get out and adventure with their families during all of this. 

[jjackkrash]

7 minutes ago, gregtay said:

Then he asked how big of a boat could he get if he needs to tow it with his Highlander... and he really wants a boat that sleeps his family of 5 because he wants to go camping out on the Puget sound :-O  YIKES! 

He'd fit right in around here.   

[Eagleboy99]

2 hours ago, gregtay said:

I have thought about trying to get a few people together to build a nice boat/RV storage facility around here as I think you could hit 100% capacity they day you opened and get positive rather quickly but the cost of land makes it a difficult equation.

I've looked into this as well, and a friend has lots of land, albeit not on the water.  I know my boat dealer just expanded their storage.  They only charge 5 or 6 bucks a foot for winter storage, but some of the real bougie places with multi-level dryrack are charging 10 times more per foot!  I think there is moeny to be made, but I am not sure I would want the hassle.

[UWSkier]

I mentioned it earlier in this thread I think but I'm predicting a buyer's market in 18-24 months for barely used wake boats and stern drives. I think this will be far less pronounced for ski boats. 

Friend knows a regional rep for Chapparal. Says every dealer has a waiting list for boats. None of them have any floor models. Never seen anything like it in 30 years in the industry. 

It's not just tow boats. 

[IXFE]

1 hour ago, UWSkier said:

I mentioned it earlier in this thread I think but I'm predicting a buyer's market in 18-24 months for barely used wake boats and stern drives. I think this will be far less pronounced for ski boats. 

Friend knows a regional rep for Chapparal. Says every dealer has a waiting list for boats. None of them have any floor models. Never seen anything like it in 30 years in the industry. 

It's not just tow boats. 

It’s the same for water toys too. About a month ago my son and I decided it was a good time to clear out the garage and attic of all the boat stuff we never use anymore... old life vests, ski ropes, A couple of Ronix surf boards, even a knee board. All of it sold within hours with multiple hits. And we were not shy about asking top dollar. 

The only down side is we sold our “boat board” thinking “nobody uses that anyway.” Since then we’ve wished we had it several times. Teaching people to surf on a Phase 5 skim or a Soulcraft kinda sucks. 

Theres a part of me that wants to sell my personal Ronix One wakeboard... but that’s would be admitting I don’t wakeboard anymore. If I put it out there it will be fine in a day, but once I sell it I’ll never justify a new one. Hmm...

[Eagleboy99]

2 hours ago, UWSkier said:

It's not just tow boats. 

The local dealer has ONE Heyday left.  And she thought a couple was going to get it in the next week or so.  All their surf boats (Supra) sold long ago.  All their regular fishing boats - gone.  Just a few jon boats and a couple large deep sea rigs (25-30 footers).  Says she's never seen it like this.  Her husband sells trailers and RVs - almost nothing left.  

There are  going to be deals on lightly used crafts in a couple years.  

[jjackkrash]

20 hours ago, NWBU said:

Most production was shut for ~3 weeks, so that takes a small amount out of production.

Without doing a survey of closure dates (many were closed 2 months), open factories still need parts from suppliers, full shifts, and a regular production schedule to crank out boats.  I took that attached pic today at one of the largest volume dealers in the region (fishing boats, runabouts, cruisers, and inboards from multiple manufacturers), and normally this time of year that parking lot is wall to wall new boats (about 150-200 new boats are usually on that lot in season) and the blue lift in the back would be running much of the day unloading new boats from semis.  Right now there's 7 new boats for sale on the lot, the lift is mostly idle from what I'm told, and new boats are just trickling in compared to normal.  And pretty much all the boats coming in are already sold.  Demand is up, but supply is way down and its not getting any better in the short run.  

 

[RedWakesetterVLX]

4 hours ago, jjackkrash said:

Without doing a survey of closure dates (many were closed 2 months), open factories still need parts from suppliers, full shifts, and a regular production schedule to crank out boats.  I took that attached pic today at one of the largest volume dealers in the region (fishing boats, runabouts, cruisers, and inboards from multiple manufacturers), and normally this time of year that parking lot is wall to wall new boats (about 150-200 new boats are usually on that lot in season) and the blue lift in the back would be running much of the day unloading new boats from semis.  Right now there's 7 new boats for sale on the lot, the lift is mostly idle from what I'm told, and new boats are just trickling in compared to normal.  And pretty much all the boats coming in are already sold.  Demand is up, but supply is way down and its not getting any better in the short run.  

 

 

 

 

Tommys of Detroit show room two weeks ago...the other side has just as many boats. 

Edited July 12, 2020 by RedWakesetterVLX

[UWSkier]

Definitely not the case at Boulder in AZ 

[gregtay]

2 hours ago, RedWakesetterVLX said:

 

 

 

Tommys of Detroit show room two weeks ago...the other side has just as many boats. 

Guess we know where to get a good deal! (that is an epic showroom!!!!! Never seen anything like that... its like a year around boat show but you get to see everything they have.  I think the common trend is that most big Malibu dealers are out or almost out of boats.  I think the Texas shops are super low on inventory as well.   Tommy's could probably trade those off to other dealers in a heartbeat if they needed to.

[gregtay]

6 hours ago, jjackkrash said:

Without doing a survey of closure dates (many were closed 2 months), open factories still need parts from suppliers, full shifts, and a regular production schedule to crank out boats.  I took that attached pic today at one of the largest volume dealers in the region (fishing boats, runabouts, cruisers, and inboards from multiple manufacturers), and normally this time of year that parking lot is wall to wall new boats (about 150-200 new boats are usually on that lot in season) and the blue lift in the back would be running much of the day unloading new boats from semis.  Right now there's 7 new boats for sale on the lot, the lift is mostly idle from what I'm told, and new boats are just trickling in compared to normal.  And pretty much all the boats coming in are already sold.  Demand is up, but supply is way down and its not getting any better in the short run.  

 

Just go down to the launch ramp at Sammamish or Lk WA and you will see all the people who purchased those boats trying to figure out how to get them off the trailer. :-O

[RedWakesetterVLX]

2 minutes ago, gregtay said:

Guess we know where to get a good deal! (that is an epic showroom!!!!! Never seen anything like that... its like a year around boat show but you get to see everything they have.  I think the common trend is that most big Malibu dealers are out or almost out of boats.  I think the Texas shops are super low on inventory as well.   Tommy's could probably trade those off to other dealers in a heartbeat if they needed to.

It’s an old vacant Sam’s club...it’s pretty impressive.  

Edited July 12, 2020 by RedWakesetterVLX

[Surf6]

What do you think I could get for our 2018 21mlx. We love our boat but for the right price...

[Pnwrider]

2 hours ago, Surf6 said:

What do you think I could get for our 2018 21mlx. We love our boat but for the right price...

List it for your dream price (within reason) and see what happens. Just know, it’s gonna cost a lot more to replace it. 

[Chappy]

1 hour ago, Pnwrider said:

List it for your dream price (within reason) and see what happens. Just know, it’s gonna cost a lot more to replace it. 

Exactly!

[smuurph84]

So does anyone think by next boat show season the Boat market will  level out? And discounts will be offered?  ,  I think u may see a sell off up north and decent used market where the season is short but in the southeast where storage is cheap and the season is long I’m not so sure . The 2 year plan may be better , but with the way wakeboarding prices increase every year I’m not so sure .

I feel like every year i wait to upgrade  is just going to cost me more  😖

[IXFE]

1 hour ago, smuurph84 said:

I feel like every year i wait to upgrade  is just going to cost me more  😖

Yup, that’s the truth you cannot escape.