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MBUU by the numbers


IXFE

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It is clear that they are still catching up from the time the factory was shut down.  If I understand correctly, then they will not build more boats than last year, they just have their build slots sold further in advance than usual?  

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ahopkins22LSV

To me it sounds like they are getting more orders and therefore their future build slots are filling up faster. Would be interesting to know what the ratio is of dealer stock/customer specific is for those orders. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I thought it might be reasonable to tag this along in this thread.  

MC appears down 58% for this most recent quarter.  That seems like more than I would have expected for the COVID 19 effect.  Did they stay shut down longer than other boat factories?  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mastercraft-boat-holdings-inc-reports-113000957.html

Edited by TallRedRider
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2 hours ago, TallRedRider said:

I thought it might be reasonable to tag this along in this thread.  

MC appears down 58% for this most recent quarter.  That seems like more than I would have expected for the COVID 19 effect.  Did they stay shut down longer than other boat factories?  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mastercraft-boat-holdings-inc-reports-113000957.html

I noticed that disparity too since both tend to track somewhat consistently, although MBUU generally outperforms. There was a bit of trash talking in the MBUU earnings call this quarter about how their competitors were having supply chain and still having issues getting back to full production, so I was watching to see what MC came out with related to their shutdowns and production ramp-up.

Malibu's Loudon plant was shut for just under a month, with Cobalt and Pursuit shut for 5 and 6 weeks. Mastercraft's were shut from 6-8 weeks, so there's part of what you're asking about. If you take the MBUU earnings call at face value, Malibu is running at full capacity while they implied that MC may still not be back to capacity even now.

What the trading machines probably keyed in on too was that MC's sales and adjusted earnings dropped way more than MBUU's, by multiples in fact. Add in releasing into the first big down market day in a long time and MCFT had the rug swept out from them. 

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17 hours ago, NWBU said:

I noticed that disparity too since both tend to track somewhat consistently, although MBUU generally outperforms. There was a bit of trash talking in the MBUU earnings call this quarter about how their competitors were having supply chain and still having issues getting back to full production, so I was watching to see what MC came out with related to their shutdowns and production ramp-up.

Malibu's Loudon plant was shut for just under a month, with Cobalt and Pursuit shut for 5 and 6 weeks. Mastercraft's were shut from 6-8 weeks, so there's part of what you're asking about. If you take the MBUU earnings call at face value, Malibu is running at full capacity while they implied that MC may still not be back to capacity even now.

What the trading machines probably keyed in on too was that MC's sales and adjusted earnings dropped way more than MBUU's, by multiples in fact. Add in releasing into the first big down market day in a long time and MCFT had the rug swept out from them. 

Bu has been smart in the strategy to bring big pieces of their supply chain in-house.  Marinizing their own engines likely prevented the bottleneck that their competitors are still facing.  

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  • 1 month later...
36 minutes ago, Fffrank said:

Has to be almost all growth by acquisition, right? I thought production numbers were almost even from last year. 

 

The measurements are over 3 years. So it’s a mix of organic and inorganic growth. 
 

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Edited by IXFE
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  • 7 months later...

Nothing new to this group but with RV builders being a decent proxy industry for tow boats, Thor is saying they won't make much progress building their dealer inventories this coming year. Their backlog is up to a full year now, and growing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/thor-industries-racks-up-14-billion-order-backlog-amid-sustained-rv-demand.html

 

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On 6/8/2021 at 7:42 PM, NWBU said:

Nothing new to this group but with RV builders being a decent proxy industry for tow boats, Thor is saying they won't make much progress building their dealer inventories this coming year. Their backlog is up to a full year now, and growing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/thor-industries-racks-up-14-billion-order-backlog-amid-sustained-rv-demand.html

 

With so many unfinished units due to backordered parts and delays, many of the RV manufacturers are taking 2 weeks off for the 4th of July vs the typical 1 week.  All the Keystone/Dutchmen (both owned by Thor) plants are definitely taking 2 weeks.  Many of the manufacturers including Thor motorized have mentioned doing the same.  Crazy to think of the numbers these companies would put up if it weren't for all the backorders and delays. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Brunswick will be about 18 months to two years out before they meet demand.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/boat-maker-brunswick-sees-revenue-growth-but-faces-low-inventory-levels-ceo.html?&qsearchterm=brunswick

They are looking at innovative ways to deal with labor and supply chain inventory while revenue (demand) is up 40%…..

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  • 2 years later...

image.thumb.png.84cb913d6eb7db8e7cf974338285a7d1.png

 

Managements definition of low costs and mine are not aligned here.  And maybe @The Hulk is finally predicting the future with the 'no sign of recovery on the horizon'.. strap in, buckle up, it is about to be rocky for a bit.

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I read another article on this and Jack said "Malibu Boats said it’s looking toward the upcoming boat show season to “serve as an additional indicator of retail recovery.”

From the sounds of the boat show threads so far, I wouldn't hold your breath Jack! 

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10 hours ago, asp13 said:

Interesting. I will be watching to see is $40 acts as support. 

I kind of suspect is has some more room to dip.  But if you look back at the 5 year graph it's trading somewhere around where it was prior to the pandemic.  That feels about right and there is reason for optimism if interest rates ease in 2024. I wouldn't buy MBUU right now but I wouldn't fire sale it either.  Captain Obvious thinks this won't be among the highest performing stocks in anyone's portfolio over the next 12 months though...

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6 hours ago, Sixer said:

I read another article on this and Jack said "Malibu Boats said it’s looking toward the upcoming boat show season to “serve as an additional indicator of retail recovery.”

From the sounds of the boat show threads so far, I wouldn't hold your breath Jack! 

How did Jack miss his optimum exit?I  mean he didn't notice his CFO jumped ship for a reason?

Barletta CEO timed perfectly although he has a lot of market insights from working in the RV industry and selling that.. 

Lots of layoffs and talks happening right now at many Boat companies FYI

Brunswick's demand issue seems to be getting short up way quicker than expected... 

Perhaps the next year or two the word unexpected will become the norm just like during the pandemic it was the word unprecedented.. ha

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7 minutes ago, The Hulk said:

Brunswick's demand issue seems to be getting short up way quicker than expected... 

 

Lot of folks up north are going to have leftover snowmobile money this year, maybe those are becoming fishing boats ;)

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46 minutes ago, JeffK said:

I helped a dealer friend of mine this year and they did pretty well at their show.

It's definitely very odd year, very hit and miss out there

 

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1 hour ago, oldjeep said:

Lot of folks up north are going to have leftover snowmobile money this year, maybe those are becoming fishing boats ;)

SxS maybe.  Was texting with some of my old sledding buds about this yesterday.  Snowcheck season this year is going to be a complete disaster.

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