2017 M235

[bamaboy]

I just can't see someone spending 150K on a 5 year old boat with 350 hours when they can spend 150K on a new boat.  

 

150K wakeboat guy is not a bargain shopper IMO

[billjames]

Just now, 85 Barefoot said:

A boat market correction will actually HELP the people who have very pricey boats on resale.  Looks how much 2008-12 boats go for these days because there weren't many new ones getting built.  Heck, a lot of people could come close to what they paid for them.

I think you miss interpret what you see. 2008-12 is the start of subprime loan on cars. So this is the start of the new subprime bubble. The bubble has not yet deflate so everyone is winning so far. If it deflate due to a recession, people will not make the boat payment, loose their cars/boats as they will be repossessed by the banks and guess what, used boat market will grow a lot, demand will shrink as few people will take the risk of 15-20 years loan on a very depreciating asset. Here you go, blood bath. I have never see any kind of bubble deflating easily in the US the last 30 years. Saving and loan, dotcom, housing, .... what is the next?

[oldjeep]

6 minutes ago, bamaboy said:

I just can't see someone spending 150K on a 5 year old boat with 350 hours when they can spend 150K on a new boat.  

 

150K wakeboat guy is not a bargain shopper IMO

And some would say that a 60K boat guy is not a bargain shopper.  All a point of view on different peoples budgets.

Now that the kids are all out of the house I'm looking forward to the next housing correction, couldn't take advantage in 2009 and I'm wanting that house on the lake.

[85 Barefoot]

8 minutes ago, billjames said:

I think you miss interpret what you see. 2008-12 is the start of subprime loan on cars. So this is the start of the new subprime bubble. The bubble has not yet deflate so everyone is winning so far. If it deflate due to a recession, people will not make the boat payment, loose their cars/boats as they will be repossessed by the banks and guess what, used boat market will grow a lot, demand will shrink as few people will take the risk of 15-20 years loan on a very depreciating asset. Here you go, blood bath. I have never see any kind of bubble deflating easily in the US the last 30 years. Saving and loan, dotcom, housing, .... what is the next?

Even during the middle of the "crisis", I sold my 2005 response lxi for 98% of what I paid for it in 2010.  During the middle of the crisis I bought and sold 4 other used boats that I sold for more than I paid.  I'm not saying there is no bubble (but given the # of units sold today compared to 10 years ago, its much much smaller) but the bottom falling out of the inboard industry does exactly what I said above, it actually props up the used market.  Comparing the inboard boat market to subprime car loans is totally apples and oranges.  

[billjames]

Just now, 85 Barefoot said:

Even during the middle of the "crisis", I sold my 2005 response lxi for 98% of what I paid for it in 2010.  During the middle of the crisis I bought and sold 4 other used boats that I sold for more than I paid.  I'm not saying there is no bubble (but given the # of units sold today compared to 10 years ago, its much much smaller) but the bottom falling out of the inboard industry does exactly what I said above, it actually props up the used market.  Comparing the inboard boat market to subprime car loans is totally apples and oranges.  

this is my point, you sold your boats when the bubble was inflating, and as a result, you do not loose money on your boats. Some people are still able to buy a brand new boat every year and sell it at the end of the season without loosing money on it. Of course they got great deal because they are recurring buyers every year. Now, the subprime car loan market and loan boat might be totally different as you said.  I do not know, I see only subprime car loan statistic information online.

As far as I know, I believe car loan and boat loan are the same. If someone knows better, maybe he or she can confirm or deny.

[bamaboy]

25 minutes ago, oldjeep said:

And some would say that a 60K boat guy is not a bargain shopper.  All a point of view on different peoples budgets.

Now that the kids are all out of the house I'm looking forward to the next housing correction, couldn't take advantage in 2009 and I'm wanting that house on the lake.

 Not a lot of guys out there that can swing 150K that are in the used boat market from what I have seen.

This is just my opinion of course but every person I know that has spent over 120K on a wakeboat has bought a new one.  

But who knows?  If boat prices keep increasing then 150K may be a bargain for a used M235?!?!?  I doubt it though.

 

Looking forward to thousands of people losing their homes and wall street getting richer?  Yeah, me too.  That will be SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETT!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited September 18, 2016 by bamaboy

[Pnwrider]

10 minutes ago, billjames said:

Now, the subprime car loan market and loan boat might be totally different as you said.  I do not know, I see only subprime car loan statistic information online.

As far as I know, I believe car loan and boat loan are the same. If someone knows better, maybe he or she can confirm or deny.

Where are you getting your information from? 

[oldjeep]

21 minutes ago, bamaboy said:

 Not a lot of guys out there that can swing 150K that are in the used boat market from what I have seen.

This is just my opinion of course but every person I know that has spent over 120K on a wakeboat has bought a new one.  

But who knows?  If boat prices keep increasing then 150K may be a bargain for a used M235?!?!?  I doubt it though.

 

Looking forward to thousands of people losing their homes and wall street getting richer?  Yeah, me too.  That will be SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETT!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yup, definitely DocPhil

[tjklein]

1 hour ago, tn_rider said:

Go get you some numbers on a 17' Platinum F250 loaded up. It'll blow your mind.

I hear you on that!  Same for GM SUVs.  My '16 Silverado diesel loaded was well below a comparable Suburban with a 5.3.  Insane...but they're selling them to soccer moms.

[85 Barefoot]

57 minutes ago, billjames said:

this is my point, you sold your boats when the bubble was inflating, and as a result, you do not loose money on your boats. Some people are still able to buy a brand new boat every year and sell it at the end of the season without loosing money on it. Of course they got great deal because they are recurring buyers every year. Now, the subprime car loan market and loan boat might be totally different as you said.  I do not know, I see only subprime car loan statistic information online.

As far as I know, I believe car loan and boat loan are the same. If someone knows better, maybe he or she can confirm or deny.

Inflating?  2008 is when the bottom fell out of the industry.  Literally a fraction of production the years prior.  I sold in 2010.  Bubble had long since burst.  

[bamaboy]

1 hour ago, oldjeep said:

Yup, definitely DocPhil

Who is this DocPhil guy?  He sounds amazing

Edited September 19, 2016 by bamaboy

[billjames]

1 hour ago, Pnwrider said:

Where are you getting your information from? 

A few month ago a business week or bloomberg article summarized the auto loan industry and stated the risk of housing bubble type. I am not sure I can get my hand on it again. But those auto loan summaries come every quarter or half a year. So, wait for the next one.

Here are some others:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-21/this-is-what-s-going-on-beneath-the-subprime-auto-loan-turmoil

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/subprime-auto-loan-loss-expectations-rise-1468341801

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/04/07/more-warning-signs-in-subprime-car-loan-market/

[billjames]

54 minutes ago, 85 Barefoot said:

Inflating?  2008 is when the bottom fell out of the industry.  Literally a fraction of production the years prior.  I sold in 2010.  Bubble had long since burst.  

I might misunderstand your point. But in 2010 they already started the car loan bubble or inflation. Do not link sales volume before 2007 to after. Before 2007 people were using their home as income and as a result the market overall was doing great: car, boat, pools, motorbikes, cocaine... sorry maybe not the last one

[Chrisjjbrown]

2 hours ago, oldjeep said:

And some would say that a 60K boat guy is not a bargain shopper.  All a point of view on different peoples budgets.

Now that the kids are all out of the house I'm looking forward to the next housing correction, couldn't take advantage in 2009 and I'm wanting that house on the lake.

Why would u want this.... Your current house would lose significant value, how do u figure you would come out ahead.  Unless u sell at the peak sit on your cash and wait for the bottom.   

[oldjeep]

6 minutes ago, Chrisjjbrown said:

Why would u want this.... Your current house would lose significant value, how do u figure you would come out ahead.  Unless u sell at the peak sit on your cash and wait for the bottom.   

Easy, current house was bought 20 years ago for less than the boats you are talking about in this thread .  Oddly enough modest houses in the affordable range were not really impacted by the housing crash.  Local lake property values are pretty much back up to the over inflated values they were pre-crash already, seems like it is time for another correction.

 

Back on topic, I suspect that most of the folks buying an M235 are not too impacted by housing market swings (omg my 20 million portfolio is only worth 12 million)

Edited September 19, 2016 by oldjeep

[BadgerBoater55]

1 hour ago, oldjeep said:

Easy, current house was bought 20 years ago for less than the boats you are talking about in this thread .  Oddly enough modest houses in the affordable range were not really impacted by the housing crash.  Local lake property values are pretty much back up to the over inflated values they were pre-crash already, seems like it is time for another correction.

Ready for another housing market correction?  Doubtful.  I wouldn't really call 2007 a correction either, it was a crash... Junk loans being sold for more than they were worth risk vs. reward.  We are due for a market correction... But that is not this threads topic, LETS TALK BOATS! It is the reason we come here after all.

[DarkSide]

It is interesting there is a HUGE difference between listing and selling.  However in the last couple weeks there has been a large number of used Malibu's listed in the $110-125k range. 

[nyryan2001]

I think a market correction blood bath is a bit extreme.

however, I do think there is merit in limits what the used wakeboat market will support.   I think we already see it happening now.

regardless of new purchase price... About the max you will see a used wakeboat for is $115-$125 range.  And that's max, likely from a dealer, with the majority of 1-2yr old Gs and other $130+ new boats landing in the $100-$115 range.  

Just saw a beautiful 2015 25LSV loaded with the 555hp with ~100hrs in Tennessee for $115k.  That guy had to eat $15-20k.

 

 

[DarkSide]

2 hours ago, nyryan2001 said:

I think a market correction blood bath is a bit extreme.

however, I do think there is merit in limits what the used wakeboat market will support.   I think we already see it happening now.

regardless of new purchase price... About the max you will see a used wakeboat for is $115-$125 range.  And that's max, likely from a dealer, with the majority of 1-2yr old Gs and other $130+ new boats landing in the $100-$115 range.  

Just saw a beautiful 2015 25LSV loaded with the 555hp with ~100hrs in Tennessee for $115k.  That guy had to eat $15-20k.

 

 

The only caveat to this is every year the new boats get more expensive,  so it makes sense used ceiling continues to rise as well.  Because people who pay $140k are not going to we willing to sell for $110k a year later.  There will be a greater number of boats crossing even the $150k threshold this year.   It would not be overly difficult to get a 25LSV or 24MXZ into that area.  G23 and X23 will likely be very close,  if not over as well.    

The other thing that we need to be reminded of is, even though $150k is A LOT OF MONEY!!!!  It isn't that much in relation to boating industry as a whole.   

[Ronnie]

The new boats will get more expensive.

The value of used boats will stay up there because of new boats getting more expensive. There's no bubble, it stairs and they only go up.

This has been going on for a long time. Hasn't changed in the 16+ years I've been in Malibu's. 

In 2001 I bought my first new Malibu, a '01 SSXI for mid $30k. Have you noticed the price of nice clean used '01 SSLXI's? Easily 2/3 of the cost of new. Same thing for every new boat I have bought since. For the boat that I kept the longest (5 years), I lost $7k. You can't do that with cars or trucks because the new prices don't escalate as fast as these boats do. The used prices hold their value. Look at the guys that only flip used boats. The values hold so they trade often or move up to newer year models as they trade without getting hurt and if they play it right, make a little $$ on each upgrade. You can't do this with a fast depreciating asset. There's no way in '01 that we OR Malibu ever thought we would be seeing $150k boats on the used market but we are not far from it. The new prices will escalate and so will used. This probably wouldn't happen if there wasn't an influx of new buyers every year. What you thought was expensive 5 or 10 years ago are prices the new buyer has never seen. They only know the current price and except it as the norm. As new buyers come to the market, so does new money. That new money is bigger than has been brought to the market than in years past. That new money escalates as well. Don't kid yourself, just because the prices are offensive to you, they aren't to the new buyer. The boats will keep getting more expensive. There will be buyers for the new boats and the ones that can't or won't buy new will pay up for the nice, clean used boats. 

[shawndoggy]

6 minutes ago, Ronnie said:

The value of used boats will stay up there because of new boats getting more expensive. There's no bubble, it stairs and they only go up.

As long as 20-30 year boat loans keep performing, easy money financing will be available.  If there's a wave of defaults that tightens underwriting standards, that money goes away.  Sure there are cash buyers out there, but take away the easy money and you will also take away the lock step "stairs only go up" growth.

[DarkSide]

1 minute ago, shawndoggy said:

As long as 20-30 year boat loans keep performing, easy money financing will be available.  If there's a wave of defaults that tightens underwriting standards, that money goes away.  Sure there are cash buyers out there, but take away the easy money and you will also take away the lock step "stairs only go up" growth.

The other side to this is prices will not contract, volume produced will contract.  To where supply still meets demand.  This will keep prices up.  If you look at the company Financials,  the manufacturer is not making a boat load of money on each unit.  They cannot produce the units significantly cheaper, all they can do is produce fewer, to keep supply and demand in balance.

To @Ronnie point, as surfing becomes more popular and IF the I/O crowd decides to go in,  these prices will not scare them.  150k for a Cobalt or even Chaparral  is no where near the upper limits. 

[tjklein]

24 minutes ago, shawndoggy said:

As long as 20-30 year boat loans keep performing, easy money financing will be available.  If there's a wave of defaults that tightens underwriting standards, that money goes away.  Sure there are cash buyers out there, but take away the easy money and you will also take away the lock step "stairs only go up" growth.

 

Dead on here.  This includes me to a certain extent...not because I couldn't, but because I wouldn't.  As long as money as cheap to borrow (my dealer does 3%) then it's easy to justify financing.  Yes, there are those that say 'cash is the only way!', of course that's crazy if you know you can get a larger return elsewhere.  If I had to plunk down $100k in cash it wouldn't make sense because I would have to forego my other investment opportunities which are far, far above 3%.

 

Just re-reading this again...man, +$100k for a boat.  It still seems crazy, but what can you say we all have our vices.  :-)

Edited September 19, 2016 by tjklein

[billjames]

51 minutes ago, Ronnie said:

The new boats will get more expensive.

The value of used boats will stay up there because of new boats getting more expensive. There's no bubble, it stairs and they only go up.

This has been going on for a long time. Hasn't changed in the 16+ years I've been in Malibu's. 

In 2001 I bought my first new Malibu, a '01 SSXI for mid $30k. Have you noticed the price of nice clean used '01 SSLXI's? Easily 2/3 of the cost of new. Same thing for every new boat I have bought since. For the boat that I kept the longest (5 years), I lost $7k. You can't do that with cars or trucks because the new prices don't escalate as fast as these boats do. The used prices hold their value. Look at the guys that only flip used boats. The values hold so they trade often or move up to newer year models as they trade without getting hurt and if they play it right, make a little $$ on each upgrade. You can't do this with a fast depreciating asset. There's no way in '01 that we OR Malibu ever thought we would be seeing $150k boats on the used market but we are not far from it. The new prices will escalate and so will used. This probably wouldn't happen if there wasn't an influx of new buyers every year. What you thought was expensive 5 or 10 years ago are prices the new buyer has never seen. They only know the current price and except it as the norm. As new buyers come to the market, so does new money. That new money is bigger than has been brought to the market than in years past. That new money escalates as well. Don't kid yourself, just because the prices are offensive to you, they aren't to the new buyer. The boats will keep getting more expensive. There will be buyers for the new boats and the ones that can't or won't buy new will pay up for the nice, clean used boats. 

Same stuff I hear in 2007 about housing, people were showing graphs depicting house price goes only up. Even in 1930 John Maynard Keynes said that the only stuff we can be sure of in economic is that they will always be demand for housing and demand cannot go down. What a nice statement Mr Keynes

[The Hulk]

Until two months ago I was under the impression saying.. surely nobody is taking out loans on 100k+ for wake boats.. I stupidly "assumed" most of these buyers were paying cash or a big portion in cash.. until a friend selling another wake boat brand told me he rejects loans all day long for 80-100k boats (note brand x is a little cheaper) .. I said your kidding right... Obviously the person walking through the door for one if these should obviously know he would be able to afford one right??.. apparently half of them can't.. and as he said the majority SHOULDN'T.. that blew my mind. Granted this is in the sub 100k market.. is it the same in the above 100k market? hmmmmm gets me thinking... He said these boats are as much as houses and 15/20/30 year loans! are the norm.. seems insane people would go out past 10yrs in a boat loan with the crazy depreciation.. that's what I call overbuying pretty much what happened in the housing market..cheap money/interest yields overbuying.. my folks generation delt with 10+% interest rates back then you didn't over buy. You borrowed as little as possible as short as possible.. but my generation simply looks at the monthly payment. 

But if boating is your life or your escape from life so be it. Sometimes you have to buy nice crap to have motivation to work but crazy overbuying and paying DOUBLE over that many years?? Geeez maybe they don't realize the first 15ys they paid only interest.. ? I

Now on the flip side say u can afford it but choose to borrow because 3% on a 10-15yr loan is pretty much free money running against true real life inflation.and using the Cash elsewhere can generate more or so u hope.. key word being the actual Cash upfront put elsewhere and the true inflation not the government BS inflation.. 

Long story short a dealer informed me the majority of people coming in are way over extending themselves for the desire to be seen in a BA boat.. crazy but true.. if money remains cheap prices will soar.. just like homes and why prices on the lake are back to almost stupid again...