Well Bye Bye Boating.....

[saidainc]

None of those change my statement, but I get your point. When have we ever had gas this expensive this time of year heading into peak demand?

For example, here's one quote: "If political unrest in Libya spreads to other oil-rich countries and the ensuing chaos disrupts crude oil production, gas prices could hit $5 a gallon by peak summer driving season, industry analysts say."

Well, did that happen? No. So by definition that was not a $5/gal prediction unless the "if" scenario happened which it didn't.

Here's another quote: "John Hofmeister, an ex-president of Shell Oil, says we're looking at $5 a gallon gas in 2012."

So, I guess you're right, $5 gallon has been predicted before...for the same relevant time frame the mainstream articles prompting this thread are too. That's not MY prediction tho btw, I'm thinking $4.50.

Im inclined to wholeheartedly agree. The day after Israel attacks Iran the markets will reflect the oil shortage and the pump prices will bust through any conceivable high price anyone had in mind. If they dont engage each other (and it is certainly looking like they will consider the proxy war being fought against each other in other countries at the moment) then the price could make similar gains to last season or maybe edge slightly higher.

I was told by an intel analyst here in Afghanistan that Iranian dissidents have said that the Ayatollah and Iran's current administration wants war to happen more than ever so they can show the world their might along with Allahs will. I highly doubt that if they were hit in any fashion by Israel, they wouldnt pull out ALL the stops and not only close the Straight of Hormuz but also target Saudi Arabian oil facilities with their mid-range missile inventory.

This brewing conflict is unlike any other I have ever seen while with the US military. Other dictators would talk and sabre rattle, but Iran is pushing the conflict beyond this and assassinating their enemies abroad.

[Steve B.]

Im inclined to wholeheartedly agree. The day after Israel attacks Iran the markets will reflect the oil shortage and the pump prices will bust through any conceivable high price anyone had in mind. If they dont engage each other (and it is certainly looking like they will consider the proxy war being fought against each other in other countries at the moment) then the price could make similar gains to last season or maybe edge slightly higher.

I was told by an intel analyst here in Afghanistan that Iranian dissidents have said that the Ayatollah and Iran's current administration wants war to happen more than ever so they can show the world their might along with Allahs will. I highly doubt that if they were hit in any fashion by Israel, they wouldnt pull out ALL the stops and not only close the Straight of Hormuz but also target Saudi Arabian oil facilities with their mid-range missile inventory.

This brewing conflict is unlike any other I have ever seen while with the US military. Other dictators would talk and sabre rattle, but Iran is pushing the conflict beyond this and assassinating their enemies abroad.

Sorry, I don't usually do this, but: "The day after Israel attacks Iran the markets will reflect the oil shortage and the pump prices will bust through any conceivable high price anyone had in mind."

The market "WILL" reflect, and"WILL" bust through?

When will the sky fall? C'mon guys.....

Steve B.

[TallRedRider]

I was told by an intel analyst here in Afghanistan that Iranian dissidents have said that the Ayatollah and Iran's current administration wants war to happen more than ever so they can show the world their might along with Allahs will. I highly doubt that if they were hit in any fashion by Israel, they wouldnt pull out ALL the stops and not only close the Straight of Hormuz but also target Saudi Arabian oil facilities with their mid-range missile inventory.

.

I do wonder if most Iranians agree, and if they have enough power to stop an all out conflict. It would be interesting to see the civil strife that might arise between the warmongers out to pull out all the stops and show Allah's power, and the pacifists on the other side. What I am saying is that Iran has had to snuff out uprisings before, and I wonder if there would be more of that if all out war erupted.

[shawndoggy]

I do wonder if most Iranians agree, and if they have enough power to stop an all out conflict. It would be interesting to see the civil strife that might arise between the warmongers out to pull out all the stops and show Allah's power, and the pacifists on the other side. What I am saying is that Iran has had to snuff out uprisings before, and I wonder if there would be more of that if all out war erupted.

Don't undersell the motivation of nationalism and patriotism to support a war initially. Or to put it another way, look at GWB's margin of victory in 2000 and his approval rating on September 12, 2001. If Israel attacks Iran, the Iranian people will support their government. Sure that support may wane if the conflict is drawn out, but it doesn't mean that there's going to be an immediate coup if Israel attacks. I'd expect exactly the opposite. Remember all those American-flags-in-the-car-window from China?

I'd expect the Iranian version will sell like hotcakes in Tehran following an overt attack from Israel.

[saidainc]

Sorry, I don't usually do this, but: "The day after Israel attacks Iran the markets will reflect the oil shortage and the pump prices will bust through any conceivable high price anyone had in mind."

The market "WILL" reflect, and"WILL" bust through?

When will the sky fall? C'mon guys.....

Steve B.

I dont know man. I mean, Ive seen some things happen while deployed that I dont think anyone would be believe, ever. Certainty was only a condition on if Israel attacks and they have made it clear internationally that they WILL NOT allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. Israel is not known for backing down, you certainly remember them attacking Syrias nuclear facility when EVERYONE thought they would not because they risked the entire middle east attacking them because of it. You decide from there I guess.

[Slayer]

This brewing conflict is unlike any other I have ever seen while with the US military. Other dictators would talk and sabre rattle, but Iran is pushing the conflict beyond this and assassinating their enemies abroad.

The unfortunate thing about the tensions being discuseds here is that our current Administration is seemingly ignorant in considering the proposed cuts to the defense department. The proposed cuts would cripple our ability to maintain our security in a position such as this where, if required, we would support our only ally in the region.

[Chia]

The unfortunate thing about the tensions being discuseds here is that our current Administration is seemingly ignorant in considering the proposed cuts to the defense department. The proposed cuts would cripple our ability to maintain our security in a position such as this where, if required, we would support our only ally in the region.

cripple, seriously?

you spend more on defense than the rest of the world combined.

The cuts to the military are 32 billion less for the coming year than for the current year (about 5% cut).

You have 90,000 troops deployed compared to over 200,000 just 2 years ago.

Your government is borrowing 40 cents of every dollar it spends...you cannot afford to put boots on the ground in another mid east conflict. You have allowed North Korea to go nuclear and other than embargo's, you are going to let Iran go nuclear. No one wants another 10+ year war.

[G-Mack]

Working for a utility that has wind coal and gas. Wind is way to far in it's early days to be reliable or cost effective.

The engineering and designs are still seriously flawed and the maintenance is unreal. That and during the times of peak load there is no wind.

Well at least here in the midwest.

I personally lean the way of natural gas but at the same time you can not put all your eggs into one basket.

Now wind power on the smaller more personal size scale seems to be more viable as the parts failure rates seem better and actually the cost to build isn't very bad.

Think about it, you just need a efficient motor and a set of blades on a pole with a syncing control system.

As an ex power generation company employee...worked in hydro and natural gas fired co-generation I am a big fan of distributed generation and micro co-gen.

Distributed generation is a great way to go as transmission lines are expensive and right of ways are ridiculous to get these days (think keystone XL, Altalink here in Alberta and so on) classic NIMBY. Put the generation where the load is... natural gas gives you that opportunity as it burns "cleaner". Just need to solve the power quality and grid balancing. If there becomes a US/Canada standard (yes we share the same grid performance standards) for micro generation we would have a chance.

If I was not in a suburban setting I would look very closely at one of these.

http://world.honda.com/power/helping-people/cogeneration-unit/

Natural gas fired for heat and electrical generation. Small natural gas fired engine produces power and the waste heat is used for heating.

[radnevrad]

cripple, seriously?

you spend more on defense than the rest of the world combined.

The cuts to the military are 32 billion less for the coming year than for the current year (about 5% cut).

You have 90,000 troops deployed compared to over 200,000 just 2 years ago.

Your government is borrowing 40 cents of every dollar it spends...you cannot afford to put boots on the ground in another mid east conflict. You have allowed North Korea to go nuclear and other than embargo's, you are going to let Iran go nuclear. No one wants another 10+ year war.

To our Canadian friend, much of what you say in regard to our spending is correct.

Last time I looked, China and Russia had a bit to do with actually providing the knowledge and infrastructure to arm North Korea and Iran. The matters are very complex and one country alone cannot police the world and certainly cannot corral the nuclear genie. It is, unfortunately the world community ("you" versus we) that has allowed North Korea and Iran to get to where they are. Once Isreal turns Iran into glass, the Canadian tar sands should continue to boom. Peaceout.

[shot]

is looks like some people will oversleep the energy change ...

Most people in Europe pay $8 to 10 / gal for gas - and how about the economy?

Edited February 20, 2012 by shot

[Slayer]

cripple, seriously?

you spend more on defense than the rest of the world combined.

The cuts to the military are 32 billion less for the coming year than for the current year (about 5% cut).

You have 90,000 troops deployed compared to over 200,000 just 2 years ago.

Your government is borrowing 40 cents of every dollar it spends...you cannot afford to put boots on the ground in another mid east conflict. You have allowed North Korea to go nuclear and other than embargo's, you are going to let Iran go nuclear. No one wants another 10+ year war.

I agree with you that we can't afford our spending. However, cuts to the Military, IMO, are not the answer. There are far too many ill fated social programs that should be cut before we go cutting our defense budgets.

To our Canadian friend, much of what you say in regard to our spending is correct.

Last time I looked, China and Russia had a bit to do with actually providing the knowledge and infrastructure to arm North Korea and Iran. The matters are very complex and one country alone cannot police the world and certainly cannot corral the nuclear genie. It is, unfortunately the world community ("you" versus we) that has allowed North Korea and Iran to get to where they are. Once Isreal turns Iran into glass, the Canadian tar sands should continue to boom. Peaceout.

Great point on the "you" versus "we" matter. Not only did China and Russia have a hell of a lot to do with Iran getting the knowledge to go nuclear, but they also would not have supported "us" doing anything about it militarily.