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saidainc

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I never understand why people don't complain about milk prices. A gallon of milk usually costs more than a gallon of gas around here, and I can assure you the process of making a gallon of gasoline is much more difficult and costly than making a gallon of milk.

If my boat and cars/trucks ran on milk i'd complain all the time but i can get away with a gallon of milk per week so its not as much of a hit to the wallet.. it's not worth complaining about saving a dollar or two per week, but when it costs a few hundred per week more on gas then its something to complain about.

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Not to mention the cost of replacing over 250 million gasoline powered cars on the road with electric cars.

Current solar technology is still not good enough to directly power a car for the type of travel the average American uses it for, so we will be reliant on plug-in recharging. Which gets to the second big cost. If today every car in the US was replaced with a plug-in rechargeable car our entire electric infrastructure would burn to the ground. The cost of updating the infrastructure for that kind of load would easily be in the billions and would take years, on top of the cost of the electric cars and the solar panels themselves. How would you keep the 700+ billion dollar air travel industry going without jet fuel? Also, how do you suppose we will produce all of the plastics in our life today without petroleum? Yes there are ways, but none of them affordable on a large scale.

And lastly, how do you plan on keeping our military functioning without oil? It would not be a negligible cost to completely relieve our armed forces of oil dependence, it would likely cost in the hundreds of billions of dollars if not trillions. Not too many electric jets and tanks out there.

While I don't think we will see more than a small blip in oil prices due to issues with Iran in the near term, make no mistake it would be a huge economic catastrophe if the US suddenly could not rely on ANY oil to keep our nation running. Fortunately we do have local resources, and I hope we keep burning up everybody else's before we use up all of our own.

Edited by Brett B
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If Iran closes the strait they shut down their ability to export oil. How do you propose Iran will pay for their war/everything else they have to pay for when they have basically no money rolling in?

not only that...but they cannot sustain a closed straight of hormuz....militarily or monetarily. i think there is a decent chance of a short armed conflict that could have spurts of ferocity....but Iran is daily alienating themselves from even the Arab world and will have no support. Iran is by no means a self sustaining nation( there is basically no such thing as a self contained economy in this world....not one that matters anyway). Their people will be under strife very quickly if this escalates. I think gas will certainly soar..not sure about $10 a gallon but i could see $5-6 pretty quick if the straight closes but they cant keep it closed so prices "should" level out as soon.

Edited by BG2085
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Not trying to call you out but a couple of variables in your computations are not accurate.

1. Usable sunlight per day is closer to an average of 5.5 hours.

2. Most panels start losing efficiency after twenty years, as much as 20%.

1. Agreed that the numbers aren't exact. On a large scale I wouldn't expect to pay what an average consumer would pay for a solar panel either. Even if the number is doubled, you're still only talking about the double of gas prices that some people expect in this thread.

2. See my link. And I'm perfectly happy with some 80% efficient free panels as opposed to buying all new ones.

Not to mention the cost of replacing over 250 million gasoline powered cars on the road with electric cars.

Current solar technology is still not good enough to directly power a car for the type of travel the average American uses it for, so we will be reliant on plug-in recharging. Which gets to the second big cost. If today every car in the US was replaced with a plug-in rechargeable car our entire electric infrastructure would burn to the ground. The cost of updating the infrastructure for that kind of load would easily be in the billions and would take years, on top of the cost of the electric cars and the solar panels themselves. How would you keep the 700+ billion dollar air travel industry going without jet fuel? Also, how do you suppose we will produce all of the plastics in our life today without petroleum? Yes there are ways, but none of them affordable on a large scale.

And lastly, how do you plan on keeping our military functioning without oil? It would not be a negligible cost to completely relieve our armed forces of oil dependence, it would likely cost in the hundreds of billions of dollars if not trillions. Not too many electric jets and tanks out there.

While I don't think we will see more than a small blip in oil prices due to issues with Iran in the near term, make no mistake it would be a huge economic catastrophe if the US suddenly could not rely on ANY oil to keep our nation running. Fortunately we do have local resources, and I hope we keep burning up everybody else's before we use up all of our own.

The point of the post wasn't to go solar cold turkey. Just that if crazy stuff started happening, we have options. And as far as electric infrastructure is concerned it wouldn't be needed if everyone had their own solar array.

Necessity is the mother of invention. When oil prices get out of hand, other alternatives will begin to see the limelight.

Edited by Jimmypooh
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not only that...but they cannot sustain a closed straight of hormuz....militarily or monetarily. i think there is a decent chance of a short armed conflict that could have spurts of ferocity....but Iran is daily alienating themselves from even the Arab world and will have no support. Iran is by no means a self sustaining nation( there is basically no such thing as a self contained economy in this world....not one that matters anyway). Their people will be under strife very quickly if this escalates. I think gas will certainly soar..not sure about $10 a gallon but i could see $5-6 pretty quick if the straight closes but they cant keep it closed so prices "should" level out as soon.

Actually they can sustain a closed straight of Hormuz economically speaking. They are already facing a huge oil embargo, from Europe and Russia - not to mention a freeze of all western held assets. Their economy has been in the toilet and they receive most of their grain and foodstuffs they need to import from Russia and China via a land bridge.

In addition, think about it. Iran is backed into a corner and wants to show the world they are powerful. What better way than to pull out all the stops. They are ALREADY surrounded by enemies, US in Afghanistan and the UAE and Saudi which are their religious enemies.

Subs have more problems with mines than surface ships do, at least the kind that Iranian vessels dump overboard. Their other attack ships are numerous speedboats with piercing charges...how do you defeat these with subs and destroyers and a phalanx missle system or SAMs?

If Israel risks an attack, Iran will pull out the stops because otherwise they will be the laughing stock of the world. Its like the little bratty kid who gets picked on and pushed around...eventually hes going to bring a gun to school and risk it all.

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Actually they can sustain a closed straight of Hormuz economically speaking. They are already facing a huge oil embargo, from Europe and Russia - not to mention a freeze of all western held assets. Their economy has been in the toilet and they receive most of their grain and foodstuffs they need to import from Russia and China via a land bridge.

In addition, think about it. Iran is backed into a corner and wants to show the world they are powerful. What better way than to pull out all the stops. They are ALREADY surrounded by enemies, US in Afghanistan and the UAE and Saudi which are their religious enemies.

Subs have more problems with mines than surface ships do, at least the kind that Iranian vessels dump overboard. Their other attack ships are numerous speedboats with piercing charges...how do you defeat these with subs and destroyers and a phalanx missle system or SAMs?

If Israel risks an attack, Iran will pull out the stops because otherwise they will be the laughing stock of the world. Its like the little bratty kid who gets picked on and pushed around...eventually hes going to bring a gun to school and risk it all.

yes, i agree they can close it. sure, easy...go blow an oil tanker up and its closed...not a difficult task at all. their problem is they cant sustain it closed especially considering the fact that if they do close it, you involve the economies and govt's all over the world. As to the speedboats....a true armed conflict where US was at a battle ready status with open fire orders in the straight....i hardly would say that dumpy little speeboats would be a problem. Mines may be a problem, but not the speedboats. I think the Iranian navy could dang near be wiped out overnight if we wanted.

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yes, i agree they can close it. sure, easy...go blow an oil tanker up and its closed...not a difficult task at all. their problem is they cant sustain it closed especially considering the fact that if they do close it, you involve the economies and govt's all over the world. As to the speedboats....a true armed conflict where US was at a battle ready status with open fire orders in the straight....i hardly would say that dumpy little speeboats would be a problem. Mines may be a problem, but not the speedboats. I think the Iranian navy could dang near be wiped out overnight if we wanted.

The bigger ones are probably Zolfaqhar speedboats. They pose a bigger threat as they are a modern PT boat. Along with torpedoes, they could carry the Noor or possibly even Qader missles,; Iranian copies of the Chinese C-802 anti-ship missiles. Their potential range is up to 200km and pack a punch similar to the Harpoon. They have terminal guidance and a very low flight profile so could be difficult to stop. I do not know if they have been matched up against anything like our Phalanx CIWS. A couple hits from these missiles could possibly sink a frigate or even a destroyer with lucky placement but it would have to be a sucker punch. There would be no opportunity for a second try given our likely reply to such an attack.

Where would they get such stuff? They didnt have to go far to look. The crews were trained at San Diego Naval Training Center and their gunboats were aquired from the good old United States of America before the Shah was deposed.

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1. Agreed that the numbers aren't exact. On a large scale I wouldn't expect to pay what an average consumer would pay for a solar panel either. Even if the number is doubled, you're still only talking about the double of gas prices that some people expect in this thread.

2. See my link. And I'm perfectly happy with some 80% efficient free panels as opposed to buying all new ones.

The point of the post wasn't to go solar cold turkey. Just that if crazy stuff started happening, we have options. And as far as electric infrastructure is concerned it wouldn't be needed if everyone had their own solar array.

Necessity is the mother of invention. When oil prices get out of hand, other alternatives will begin to see the limelight.

I’d simply revise that comment the market will determine the need and amount of supply. When subsidies are needed to make a product viable imho it’s not ready. Residential and commercial properties are consistently reevaluating the economical viability for solar and wind for that matter. Many companies won’t find the return on their investment due to the fact most will never stay at that location long enough to recoup the capital investment. There are companies who install solar arrays and wind turbines on leased property from corporations or property owners making a parking structure out of it or on a building’s roof. The building/property owner then in return can buy power through them at a reduced rate or stick w/ their current energy provider and still make some $$. The parking covers imho are a great way to manage this. Lost cost instillation compared to a building, easily retrofitted or relocated and aid in the reduction of the heat coefficient in parking lots. There is a growing trend to install these out of force to comply w/ energy regulations and find it fulfilling to go green. Most don’t do it purely for economics on a mass scale but it is getting more main stream that’s for sure. Obviously location is key depending upon which source you want to use.

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The bigger ones are probably Zolfaqhar speedboats. They pose a bigger threat as they are a modern PT boat. Along with torpedoes, they could carry the Noor or possibly even Qader missles,; Iranian copies of the Chinese C-802 anti-ship missiles. Their potential range is up to 200km and pack a punch similar to the Harpoon. They have terminal guidance and a very low flight profile so could be difficult to stop. I do not know if they have been matched up against anything like our Phalanx CIWS. A couple hits from these missiles could possibly sink a frigate or even a destroyer with lucky placement but it would have to be a sucker punch. There would be no opportunity for a second try given our likely reply to such an attack.

Where would they get such stuff? They didnt have to go far to look. The crews were trained at San Diego Naval Training Center and their gunboats were aquired from the good old United States of America before the Shah was deposed.

isnt it crazy how interconnected. wish we would learn from history and let the middle simply fight each other. My hope is we dont have a conflict...but if we do, i hope we pound their naval strike capabilities before we load the straight with vessels.

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Solar is going to have to come a long ways before it is a viable energy source for most people.

In the United States, half of us have about 6 hours of good solar time in the winter. Batteries are going to be necessary for some setups and lots of batteries for some things. The battery expense would negate much of the savings. And also the environmental benefits...when you think about where battery components come from (mostly big mining operations).

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Solar is going to have to come a long ways before it is a viable energy source for most people.

In the United States, half of us have about 6 hours of good solar time in the winter. Batteries are going to be necessary for some setups and lots of batteries for some things. The battery expense would negate much of the savings. And also the environmental benefits...when you think about where battery components come from (mostly big mining operations).

if you went off the grid, yes, but no one is saying such a conversion needs to be so dramatic. Tie in the grid, you still need some purchased power, no problem. Everything helps.

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if you went off the grid, yes, but no one is saying such a conversion needs to be so dramatic. Tie in the grid, you still need some purchased power, no problem. Everything helps.

Except for that pesky thing called transportation. Food, goods, people. Solar panels can help us burn slightly less coal to power our homes, but they can't do a thing to help us with our massive oil consumption without investing hundreds of billions of dollars, which was the point of my previous post. Not sure why people think solar is a cheap panacea that can simply replace oil.

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Except for that pesky thing called transportation. Food, goods, people. Solar panels can help us burn slightly less coal to power our homes, but they can't do a thing to help us with our massive oil consumption without investing hundreds of billions of dollars, which was the point of my previous post. Not sure why people think solar is a cheap panacea that can simply replace oil.

I don't think anyone said it would be cheap or easy, but it will help as Oil gets more expensive.

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IMO wind is technology far closer to realistic home useage than solar at this point.

If these damn windmills weren't so crazy expensive, I'd have one right now!

Wind technology is closer however a return on investment typically is not realized for 7-10 years. And, the matter of energy storage also becomes an issue with the exception of wind farms where the energy is typically sent to the grid.

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Wind technology is closer however a return on investment typically is not realized for 7-10 years. And, the matter of energy storage also becomes an issue with the exception of wind farms where the energy is typically sent to the grid.

In nearly all home use cases, going off grid is a bad idea. You feed your overage back into the grid and use the grid for your generation shortage. Battery banks are usually a bad idea. But I found the ROI on wind was over 10 years and we are heavy electric users (all electric with a lot of air space).

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In nearly all home use cases, going off grid is a bad idea. You feed your overage back into the grid and use the grid for your generation shortage. Battery banks are usually a bad idea. But I found the ROI on wind was over 10 years and we are heavy electric users (all electric with a lot of air space).

You are 100% correct on the ROI of wind. 7-10 years is the norm depending on your location.

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Food for thought on the uneeded worry about oil crisis. You'll have to follow my math here:The US uses 18.7 Million barrels of oil a day1 Barrel = 1.7MWH of electricity (source)US uses the equivalent of 31.79 million MWH per day in oilTypical 45W Harbor Freight solar panel costs $180 (not on sale)10 hours of sunlight a day = 450W of power per panelWe would need 70.644 billion Solar panels to eliminate the need for all oilDivided up by every person in the US (307 million, not including companies) is 231 panels per personThat's $41,420 dollars per person. Panels produce 80% of their original power after 40 years$41,420 over 40 years at 5% interest is $199.73 a month (or 2396.76 per year) per person to replace the use of oil.Or a total of $2,015,904,986 a day for the US.We currently spend $1,841,950,000 on Oil a day ($98 per barrel).Granted this is all academic and the true implementation costs would differ, however, this shows that solar energy could replace oil for a negligible difference. As solar power becomes more advanced and does really last longer than 40 years, it's likely the actual cost of solar power will decrease over time rather than increase as oil does. When the !@#% hits the fan and it becomes financially viable to implement solar power, It won't be as crazy as one might think. I don't ever believe in the collapse of the world economy due to an energy crisis. There are other options.

Not trying to call you out but a couple of variables in your computations are not accurate. 1. Usable sunlight per day is closer to an average of 5.5 hours.2. Most panels start losing efficiency after twenty years, as much as 20%.

Love all the post by the way. This is just my 2 cents. I work in the oil field and we need to do more drilling. But, I am all about saving $. I drive a hybrid and love it. (Toyota Camry) As far as Solar power love the idea so I checked into it my house is 3800 sq/ft with a big pool. It would have cost me $130,000 to solar power my house I live in Mississippi I know that does matter. My power bill is like $250 a month so it would take 43 years to break even so no shot in this one. But I didn't hear anyone say anything about NATURAL GAS This is by far the way to go. We can run the country for 100s of year on the amount we have. We still need oil and we always will but natural gas is clean and we can run cars, trucks, buses, boats and we can get power from it. :thumbup: As far as the Oil Companies making money look at all the jobs that come from the oil companies and as was said all the taxes. Government and us need to get on board with natural gas it will be great for not only us but our kids and their kids. :whistle:

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GAS prices projected to hit 4.70 in NYC and 4.90 in LA by July and this is without the anticipation of any conflict in the Straight of Hormuz....just heard this on the news this morning.

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GAS prices projected to hit 4.70 in NYC and 4.90 in LA by July and this is without the anticipation of any conflict in the Straight of Hormuz....just heard this on the news this morning.

It's a recycled news report...same one as last winter, and the one before that.

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Weird, I can't ever recall a report predicting prices that high. :whistle:

I'm starting to agree with the original OP. Israeli's accusing Iran of quite a bit, Iran's scientists assassinated. While it's true we may not get OUR oil from Hormuz, if that were to be shut off, guess where everyone else has to start getting oil? So, we're not immune to a supply problem simply because they don't supply our crude.

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None of those change my statement, but I get your point. When have we ever had gas this expensive this time of year heading into peak demand?

For example, here's one quote: "If political unrest in Libya spreads to other oil-rich countries and the ensuing chaos disrupts crude oil production, gas prices could hit $5 a gallon by peak summer driving season, industry analysts say."

Well, did that happen? No. So by definition that was not a $5/gal prediction unless the "if" scenario happened which it didn't.

Here's another quote: "John Hofmeister, an ex-president of Shell Oil, says we're looking at $5 a gallon gas in 2012."

So, I guess you're right, $5 gallon has been predicted before...for the same relevant time frame the mainstream articles prompting this thread are too. That's not MY prediction tho btw, I'm thinking $4.50.

Edited by 85 Barefoot
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Working for a utility that has wind coal and gas. Wind is way to far in it's early days to be reliable or cost effective.

The engineering and designs are still seriously flawed and the maintenance is unreal. That and during the times of peak load there is no wind.

Well at least here in the midwest.

I personally lean the way of natural gas but at the same time you can not put all your eggs into one basket.

Now wind power on the smaller more personal size scale seems to be more viable as the parts failure rates seem better and actually the cost to build isn't very bad.

Think about it, you just need a efficient motor and a set of blades on a pole with a syncing control system.

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